Goss: Unemployment is bright spot, even as rates rise

NICK GOSNELL

Hutch Post

HUTCHINSON, Kan. — Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says the interest rate hikes the Federal Reserve continues to make are having an effect.

"We're seeing it across the economy," Goss said. "Not seeing it so much in the job market. Even in the Mid-America region and in Kansas, the overall job numbers are looking reasonably well. In other words, the unemployment rate is down at really good levels. The issue, of course, is the shortage of workers."

Goss still sees that as residual effects from COVID relief.

"The labor force in Kansas and in the region is down," Goss said. "Some of that is just due to the government providing a lot of support and a lot of incentive. Incentivizing individuals to not come back to work, even at this late stage."

Goss said the Fed is prepared for a little bit of an issue with unemployment.

"Their prediction is for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% by the end of 2023. I think it's going to be higher than that. We're seeing, of course, in Kansas, you've got about 1100 workers less in the labor market today than you had pre-pandemic, that would be Feb. 2020."

Goss expects another, smaller, quarter-percent rate hike from the Fed on Feb. 1.

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