GOP proposals to cut Medicaid would end coverage for millions

A nonpartisan analysis said millions of Americans could lose Medicaid health insurance coverage under different Republican congressional proposals to cut spending to support President Donald Trump's tax cuts and domestic policy agenda.

The estimates of people who could lose Medicaid coverage range from 2.3million to 8.6million under different proposals floated by congressional Republicans, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The CBO did the analysis at the request of Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Oregon, and Rep. Frank Pallone, D-New Jersey, who released a letter detailing the congressional scorekeeper's estimates on May 7.

Congressional Democrats asked the CBO to analyze five scenarios that Republicans have reportedly discussed as the House Energy and Commerce Committee seeks $880billion in savings and spending reductions from Medicaid and other programs.

The CBO estimated reducing federal payments to states that have expanded Medicaid enrollment under the Affordable Care Act would save $710billion but would cut coverage for 5.5million enrollees.

Many states tax hospitals or medical providers to afford the state match to collect the lucrative federal share of Medicaid payments. Eliminating state provider taxes would save the federal government $668billion, but 8.6million people would lose Medicaid coverage, the CBO said.

The CBO examined three other potential cuts: capping spending per enrollee for the entire Medicaid population, capping spending per enrollee under the ACA's Medicaid expansion or repealing a Biden administration rule on Medicaid eligibility. The number of people who would lose coverage under those scenarios range from 2.3million to 5.8million.

"This analysis from the non-partisan, independent CBO is straightforward: the Republican plan for health care means benefit cuts and terminated health insurance for millions of Americans who count on Medicaid," Wyden said in a statement.

However, it's unclear what Medicaid cuts Republicans might pursue. House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on May 6 that Republicans have ruled out reducing federal payments to states that have expanded Medicaid. Johnson also appeared to be leaning against per-capita caps on states that have expanded Medicaid.

"I think we're ruling that out as well, but stay tuned," Johnson said.

Wyden and Pallone did not ask the CBO to examine a potential fix that Johnson said remains in the mix − a work requirement for nondisabled Medicaid enrollees. Congressional Republicans also have floated more frequent eligibility checks and removing coverage for noncitizens.