Gold Analysis: Expected Record Levels – 05 August 2024

-- At the end of last week's trading, gold prices rose to more than $2,476 per ounce, a new record level, after a weak report on jobs in the United States of America, which added to the size of the expected dovish shift by the Federal Reserve.
-- According to the results of the economic calendar, the US economy added a total of 114,000 net jobs in July, which is much less than market expectations of an increase of 175,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to its highest levels in 2021, and wage growth slowed more than markets expected.

In general, evidence of a slowing labor market added to fears that the US Federal Reserve will not achieve a soft landing, as data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed a sharp contraction in the manufacturing sector, while failing corporate profits by giant companies limited their flexibility in the face of higher interest rates. Consequently, markets expected the Federal Reserve to provide a 50-basis point interest rate cut to start its new cycle in September.

Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continued to spur demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

On the gold market’s impact front, the US dollar index continues to slide after non-farm payrolls data. According to reliable trading platforms, the US dollar index fell below 103.7 on Friday, its lowest level in more than four months after a weak jobs report added to the Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook. The US economy added 114,000 new jobs in July, well below market expectations of 175,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly jumped to a 2021 high of 4.3% and wage growth slowed more than expected.

This has prompted financial markets to price in 100 basis points of interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, with a total of one 50 basis point cut and two 25 basis point cuts in the remaining three decisions of the year.

The US dollar index was also pressured by an unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan this week, which pushed the yen up 5% since last Friday.

In another development affecting the gold market, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hit a session low of 3.79%, or its lowest level since December 2023, after a sharp payroll’s failure added to fears of a slowdown in the US economy. The US economy added 114,000 jobs in July from a downwardly revised increase of 179,000 in the previous month, well below expectations of 175,000.

In addition, the US unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, and wage growth slowed more than expected. This added to a series of signs that the US economy is losing its resilience in the face of the Federal Reserve’s tightening interest rates, including a sharper-than-expected contraction in the manufacturing sector shown by the Institute for Supply Management.

Overall, demand for US Treasuries was also driven by disappointing corporate results from Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft, which prompted investors to shift from large-cap tech stocks to fixed income assets.

Overall, investors now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, suggesting two 25-basis-point cuts and one 50-basis-point cut.

On the stock trading front, US stocks fall sharply amid economic concerns. According to trading, US stocks closed sharply lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 1.8%, the Nasdaq down 2.4% and the Dow Jones down about 610 points due to weaker-than-expected US jobs report that raised concerns about a slowing economy.

Also, disappointing earnings from major tech companies and weak manufacturing data dampened investor sentiment. Amazon shares fell 8.8% after it missed revenue expectations and issued a disappointing forecast. Intel shares fell 26.1% after weak quarterly results, while Nvidia (-1.8%), Broadcom (-2.2%) and Microchip Technology (-10.6%) also saw sharp declines. Apple shares rose 0.7% after beating earnings expectations despite a drop in iPhone revenue.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.1%, the Dow Jones fell 2.1% and the Nasdaq fell 3.4%.

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Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

According to the daily chart, the general trend for gold is upward and there is a readiness for new record bullish breaches if global geopolitical tensions increase and global central banks, led by China, return to increasing the pace of gold buying. Currently, the closest resistance levels for gold are 2465 and 2472 and the historical resistance of $2500 per ounce. So far, we still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.

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Original Source DailyForex.com provides daily fundamental and technical analysis and signals for those looking to trade based on trends in the currency markets.