GBP/USD Analysis: Bulls Attempt to Regain Control – 16 September 2024

-- At the beginning of this week, the GBP/USD pair was trading around $1.3158, up by about 0.2% from the previous Friday's levels.
-- Clearly, this was driven by a weaker US dollar despite signs of stubborn producer prices in the United States.
-- According to economic data, the latest US Producer Price Index data came in stronger than expected, rising 0.2% in August, up from a downwardly revised flat reading in the previous month.

However, growing concerns that a weak US Labor market could push the Federal Reserve into an aggressive easing cycle in the near term have undermined the US dollar's upside potential. On the other hand, the latest initial US jobless claims report rose as expected to 230,000, revealing another increase in the number of unemployed US citizens claiming unemployment benefits.

The figure held above averages seen at the start of the year, reinforcing concerns about a weak US labour market in the wake of a bleak US payrolls report in August. As a result, this offset any potential shifts in the current market consensus around multiple US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, as the spectre of a US hiring slowdown weighed on the US dollar.

Elsewhere, a slight decline in US Treasury yields put further pressure on the US dollar, leaving the greenback languishing near recent lows.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) Fluctuates Amid Data Quiet

In contrast, the pound (GBP) has struggled to attract investor interest recently amid a lack of fresh US data. Overall, the lack of fresh information has led to uncertainty in market sentiment, which in turn has dampened investor interest in sterling, which is now more risk sensitive. In addition, the impact of disappointing UK growth figures continues to weigh on sterling, with no new factors to offset this effect.

Commenting on this, Chris Turner, global markets analyst at ING, said: “UK interest rates have come down quite a bit so far, with 2-year GBP swap rates down by around 30bps. It is unclear whether this is a result of weak UK GDP data or simply a belief that interest rates will come down across the world and that the UK should not be an exception – despite the silence from the Bank of England.”

Despite recent speculation that the BoE may introduce a less aggressive policy easing cycle than other major central banks, the combination of global political shifts and slower economic growth in the UK appears to be limiting any potential recovery for sterling.

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GBP/USD Forecast: Is Risk Appetite Influencing Movement?

Looking ahead, we may see the data-free end of the week in both the US and the UK affect global risk dynamics and the movement of the currency pair. Accordingly, any gloomy trade could support the US dollar as a safe haven, while an improvement in market sentiment could boost the risk-sensitive pound sterling against its safer competitors. As far as the UK is concerned, the recent RICS housing index improved sharply to 1 for August from a previously revised -18, which was well above consensus forecasts and the strongest reading since October 2022.

UBS commented on the monetary policy decision this week, saying, "We expect a majority of Monetary Policy Committee members to vote to keep interest rates unchanged next week by a 7-2 margin."

In the UK, too, attention will be focused on upcoming inflation data and the Bank of England’s policy meeting. Widely, the BoE is expected to maintain interest rates, after cutting rates by 25 basis points last month. The main factor influencing the BoE’s decision will be UK inflation data, due out on Wednesday, just a day before the central bank announces policy. Annual inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.2% in August, remaining above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target. Later in the week, markets will also be closely watching retail sales figures and public sector net borrowing data for further economic insights.

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Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

With the recent gains of the GBP/USD, the currency pair has returned to its broader upward trend and the 1.3250 resistance on the daily chart will remain the most prominent to confirm the bulls' strong control of the trend. Technically, we expect the GBP/USD to remain in its current trajectory until the markets and investors react to the announcements of both the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve this week. The more hawkish the bank, the more supportive it will be for its currency, and we will see. Conversely, the psychological support of 1.3000 will remain the most important for a reversal of the current bullish outlook.

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