Forecasting The Next Recession: The Yield Curve Doesn’t Lie

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer Brian Smedley, Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research Matt Bush CFA, CBE, Director. Summary Despite robust gross domestic product growth this year, our Recession Probability Model and Recession Dashboard on pages 8 and 9 still suggest a recession is likely to begin in early…