Findings from University of Central Florida Yields New Findings on Risk Management (Analysis of crash proportion by vehicle type at traffic analysis…

Findings from University of Central Florida Yields New Findings on Risk Management (Analysis of crash proportion by vehicle type at traffic analysis zone level: A mixed fractional split multinomial logit modeling approach with spatial effects)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- New research on Risk Management is the subject of a report. According to news originating from Orlando, Florida, by VerticalNews correspondents, research stated, "In traffic safety literature, crash frequency variables are analyzed using univariate count models or multivariate count models. In this study, we propose an alternative approach to modeling multiple crash frequency dependent variables."

Financial support for this research came from Florida Department of Transportation.

Our news journalists obtained a quote from the research from the University of Central Florida, "Instead of modeling the frequency of crashes we propose to analyze the proportion of crashes by vehicle type. A flexible mixed multinomial logit fractional split model is employed for analyzing the proportions of crashes by vehicle type at the macro-level. In this model, the proportion allocated to an alternative is probabilistically determined based on the alternative propensity as well as the propensity of all other alternatives. Thus, exogenous variables directly affect all alternatives. The approach is well suited to accommodate for large number of alternatives without a sizable increase in computational burden. The model was estimated using crash data at Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level from Florida. The modeling results clearly illustrate the applicability of the proposed framework for crash proportion analysis. Further, the Excess Predicted Proportion (EPP)-a screening performance measure analogous to Highway Safety Manual (HSM), Excess Predicted Average Crash Frequency is proposed for hot zone identification. Using EPP, a statewide screening exercise by the various vehicle types considered in our analysis was undertaken."

According to the news editors, the research concluded: "The screening results revealed that the spatial pattern of hot zones is substantially different across the various vehicle types considered."

For more information on this research see: Analysis of crash proportion by vehicle type at traffic analysis zone level: A mixed fractional split multinomial logit modeling approach with spatial effects. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2018;111():12-22. Accident Analysis and Prevention can be contacted at: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England. (Elsevier - www.elsevier.com; Accident Analysis and Prevention - www.journals.elsevier.com/accident-analysis-and-prevention/)

The news correspondents report that additional information may be obtained from J. Lee, University of Central Florida, Dept. of Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Orlando, FL 32816, United States. Additional authors for this research include S. Yasmin, N. Eluru, M. Abdel-Aty and Q. Cai.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.11.017. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

Keywords for this news article include: Orlando, Florida, United States, North and Central America, Risk Management, University of Central Florida.

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