EUR/USD Analysis: Gains Halted – 17 July 2024

-- The EUR/USD price halted its gains at the 1.0922 resistance level and has returned to move down, settling around the 1.0875 level at the time of writing.
-- Despite Powell’s dovish appearance, the EUR/USD is unable to benefit. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a “dovish” mark in his recent interview.
-- However, the EUR/USD price has failed to capitalize on these comments. ;

The EUR/USD exchange rate is stuck below the 1.0900 resistance level, unable to rise even after Powell, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair, made dovish comments, noting that the inflation outlook in the United States is improving amid a more balanced labor market. ;

Powell was interviewed by the Economic Club in Washington DC, where he was able to reflect on last week’s weaker-than-expected US inflation figures. “Powell sounded dovish,” said Sam Hill, head of market insights at Lloyds Bank. Added, “The improvement in the data trajectory that the Fed has seen over the second quarter, particularly the last three inflation prints, has been reflected.” ;

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According to reliable trading platforms, the dollar fell after US inflation came in at -0.1% on a monthly basis in June, down from 0% in May and below expectations for a 0.1% increase. Powell believes that this data has added “somewhat” confidence that inflation is on its way back to target. Combined with a cooler labor market, this means that the US Federal Reserve will “consider both mandates” when setting policy. ;

According to reliable trading platforms, the dollar weakened after U.S. inflation dropped to -0.1% month-on-month in June, down from 0% in May and below the expected increase of 0.1%. Powell believes this data has somewhat boosted confidence that inflation is on its way back to the target. Alongside a cooler labor market, this means the Fed will consider both mandates when determining policy. ;

Powell added, “We want to get that right,”. The dollar has proven less sensitive to such statements, dropping notably after Powell told the ECB Forum on Central Banking on July 3rd that significant progress on inflation had been made and that the process of reducing inflation was back on track. He stated in Sintra, Portugal, that if the labor market becomes "unexpectedly weak... this will also prompt us to respond." Powell also reiterated his view that the neutral rate of interest might be higher than previously thought but repeated that policy remains restrictive. Analysts noted, "Market prices continued to shift towards more cuts this year after he spoke, with the easing cycle starting in September and delivering at least two cuts over the year, with about a 60% chance of three cuts." ;

According to forex trading, the euro against the US dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate rose amid greater confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates in September. However, the failure to break above the 1.09 level on a sustained basis suggests that a cut may already be “in price.” This could mean that the dollar is consolidating around current levels and those who want a stronger euro may have to wait for further catalysts. ;

Overall, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow, Thursday, when it announces its next interest rate decision. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged, but markets will be looking for hints of further rate cuts. A September rate cut by the ECB is almost fully priced in by the market, indicating that this might not significantly change the EUR/USD, potentially keeping the exchange rate stable below 1.09 and ready for a new breakout. ;

EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast: ;

Based on the performance on the daily chart attached, the bulls are still in strong control of the EUR/USD price trend, with the need to break the psychological resistance at 1.1000 to confirm the general trend turning to the upside. Failure to do so could re-establish a head and shoulders pattern in that time frame, meaning selling pressures could return and a break of the support at 1.0790 could threaten the recent upward correction. The EUR/USD will remain in tight ranges until the reaction to the ECB decisions tomorrow, Thursday. ;

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Original Source DailyForex.com provides daily fundamental and technical analysis and signals for those looking to trade based on trends in the currency markets.