Essent Group Ltd Q4 2023 Presentation
INVESTOR PRESENTATION 4Q23
NYSE:
Disclaimer
This presentation may include "forward-looking statements" which are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties, many of which may be beyond our control. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may," "will," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "predict," or "potential" or the negative thereof or variations thereon or similar terminology. Actual events, results and outcomes may differ materially from our expectations due to a variety of known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Although it is not possible to identify all of these risks and factors, they include, among others, the following: changes in or to
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© 2023 |
Essent Is A Leading Mortgage Insurer
Company Overview
Essent Group Ltd. is aBermuda -based holding company that went public in 2013, and is traded on theNew York Stock Exchange (NYSE:ESNT ).- Two primary operating companies:
Essent Guaranty, Inc. (Radnor, PA ) andEssent Reinsurance Ltd. (Hamilton, Bermuda ). - Serves the
U.S. housing finance industry by offering private mortgage insurance, reinsurance, risk management products and title insurance and settlement services to support home ownership. - Transformed primary MI business model from "Buy and Hold" to "Buy, Manage & Distribute" through use of programmatic reinsurance.
- Developed proprietary scoring engine EssentEDGE®, a cloud- based AI platform that we leverage in MI risk management and pricing.
Essent Guaranty, Inc. is rated A3 by Moody's, A (Excellent) by A.M.
Best, and A- by S&P.
Recent Developments
- In December, we closed our fifth XOL transaction, transferring
$37M of limit on our 2023 NIW to a panel of reinsurers, effectiveJanuary 1, 2024 . - On
January 8, 2024 , S&P raised its long-term financial strength and issuer credit ratings onEssent Guaranty, Inc. andEssent
Reinsurance Ltd. to 'A-' from 'BBB+', with a stable outlook.
1 The combined risk-to-capital ratio equals the net risk in force of
3Q23 |
4Q23 |
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Consolidated Financial Results |
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Net Income ($M) |
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Combined Ratio |
31.7% |
34.9% |
Annualized ROE |
14.9% |
14.2% |
Shareholders' Equity ($B) |
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IIF ($B) |
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NIW ($B) |
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Portfolio Default Rate |
1.62% |
1.80% |
PMIERs Sufficiency Ratio |
174% |
170% |
% IIF With Reinsurance Protection |
97% |
93% |
Risk-to-Capital Ratio(1) |
10.3:1 |
10.2:1 |
Capital Distribution To Shareholders
- In conjunction with our 4Q23 earnings release, we announced Board approval to increase the quarterly dividend to
$0.28 per common share for 2024. - In 2023, we repurchased approximately 1.5 million common shares for
$66 million . - In
October 2023 , the Board approved a share purchase plan that authorized the Company to repurchase$250 million of common shares in the open market between 2024 and 2025.
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© 2023 |
Delivering Shareholder Value
BOOK VALUE PER SHARE GROWTH
Annualized growth rate of 19.1% since
Dec-13 |
Dec-14 |
Dec-15 |
Dec-16 |
Dec-17 |
Dec-18 |
Dec-19 |
Dec-20 |
Dec-21 |
Dec-22 |
Dec-23 |
Strong Cash Flows
& Earnings
Programmatic
Reinsurance
Protection
Steadily Increasing
Dividends
Management
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© 2023 |
Key Milestones in
Launch
of
Guaranty
IPO
Launch of
Essent Re
Essent Re completes first GSE risk share deal and reinsures
First CRT
EssentEDGE®
EssentEDGE® Next Generation
- cloud-basedAI pricing platform
Essent Title
2010
2013
20142018
2019
2021
2023
2009 |
2024+ |
25+ years Experienced Management Team
Essent Advantage |
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Strong |
Conservative |
Highly |
Efficient |
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Capital |
Financial |
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Operating |
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Position |
Leverage |
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Platform |
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Best in Class
Analytics &
Technologies
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© 2023 |
Industry Fundamentals
STABLE DEMAND OF FIRST-TIME HOMEBUYER POPULATION |
MONTHS' SUPPLY OF HOUSING INVENTORY |
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Favorable demographic trends should continue to provide fundamental support to housing demand as the projected population of people in the average age range of a first-time homebuyer is forecasted to increase over the next 5+ years.
Total housing inventory remains low at approximately 3 months, driven by existing home inventory pressures from various macro trends (e.g. reductions in supply from
the "lock-in" effect of existing homeowners in low-rate mortgages).
Note: The months' supply is the ratio of houses for sale to houses sold.
PERSISTENCY vs. 30-YEAR MORTGAGE RATE |
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE vs. DEFAULT RATE |
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Our annual persistency has historically had a positive correlation with the quarterly average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, with periods of higher mortgage rates translating to higher persistency.
The default rate for mortgage insurers tends to have a positive correlation with the
Sources:
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© 2023 |
Buy, Manage & Distribute Operating Model
EssentEDGE® Enables Rapid Execution |
Strong Operating Results |
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of Targeted Pricing Strategies |
➢ Last Twelve Months Operating Cash Flow of |
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➢ |
Lender utilization continues to increase |
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➢ The latest generation of EssentEDGE® is a |
➢ Continue to focus on optimizing unit |
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cloud-based AI platform with machine |
economics |
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learning techniques that utilizes 400+ |
➢ Credit quality of portfolio remains strong |
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attributes to generate an MI quote in ~3 |
seconds |
➢ Efficient platform enables increased operating |
leverage and profitability |
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- Differentiated pricing strategy to deliver borrowers our best price
CREDIT RISK |
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Committed To Programmatic Reinsurance |
TRANSFER (CRT) |
Fortifying Balance Sheet and Enhancing |
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➢ |
Buy, Manage & Distribute model mitigates |
Financial Flexibility |
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franchise volatility during weak economic |
As of |
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cycles, with 93% of IIF subject to reinsurance |
➢ |
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protection |
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➢ As of |
➢ Ample liquidity with |
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investments available for sale at the holding |
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companies |
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treaties to a panel of highly rated third-party |
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reinsurers |
➢ An additional |
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➢ As of |
with our credit facility |
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to |
➢ |
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coverage |
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© 2023 |
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Credit Risk Transfer
Since
- Capital market investors vianine(1) Radnor Re Insurance-Linked Note (ILN) issuances
- Reinsurers viafour(1) Excess of Loss (XOL) reinsurance transactions
- Reinsurers viathree Quota Share (QS) reinsurance programs
As of 12/31/23, 93% of IIF is subject to reinsurance protection
Capital Markets |
Excess of Loss |
Quota Share |
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remaining risk in force in ILNs |
in risk limit reinsured by |
of RIF ceded to a panel of |
highly rated third-party |
highly rated third-party |
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sold to investors |
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reinsurers |
reinsurers |
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1) As of 12/31/23, we have 5 active ILN deals and 3 active XOL deals. Please see herefor the Credit Risk Transfer Update presentation for additional detail.
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© 2023 |
Essent Re
Essent Reinsurance Ltd. ("Essent Re") is aBermuda -based reinsurance company, rated A (Excellent) byA.M. Best and A- by S&P. AtDecember 31, 2023 , Essent Re's GAAP equity was$1.8 billion .- Essent Re primarily focuses on three business lines:
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- Affiliate quota share (QS) to reinsure
Essent Guaranty and leverage ourBermuda platform - GSE risk share to access a larger mortgage credit universe beyond primary MI
- Agency provides advisory services to reinsurer clients and generates fee income
- Affiliate quota share (QS) to reinsure
Affiliate Quota Share |
GSE Risk Share |
Agency |
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Provide Quota Share reinsurance |
Active participant in GSE risk |
Offer underwriting, pricing and |
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to |
share business with |
surveillance services to reinsurers |
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In Force of |
Risk In Force |
writing mortgage risk |
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Third Party Premiums Earned & Risk In Force |
Total Equity $B |
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4Q22 |
1Q23 |
2Q23 |
3Q23 |
4Q23 |
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4Q22 |
1Q23 |
2Q23 |
3Q23 |
4Q23 |
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3rd Party RIF $B |
3rd Party NPE $M |
GAAP Equity $B |
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© 2023 |
essentgroup.com | 9 |
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Investment Portfolio
As Of
Portfolio by Asset Class |
Portfolio by Rating1 |
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Non- |
Below Baa3 |
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Other Invested Assets |
Government |
1.7% |
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1.2% |
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5.0% |
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Money |
Baa |
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market |
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12.7% |
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funds |
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8.0% |
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RMBS & |
Government |
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CMBS |
and Agency |
A |
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9.3% |
Debt |
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33.0% |
19.9% |
Aaa |
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53.2% |
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ABS |
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10.2% |
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Municipals |
Corporates |
Aa |
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9.9% |
12.5% |
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23.4% |
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• Investment income yield of 3.6% for 4Q23, up from 3.0% in 4Q22 |
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New money yield in 4Q23 of ~5% |
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98% of the portfolio is investment grade |
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Other Invested Assets of |
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66% of the portfolio has a credit rating of |
PE and structured funds along with direct investments into |
Aaa to Aa |
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several companies |
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- Based on ratings issued by Moody's, if available. S&P or Fitch rating utilized if Moody's not available. Credit rating is for the investments available for sale portfolio only and excludes money market funds.
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© 2023 |
Attachments
Disclaimer
Q4 2023 Supplement
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