Economists split over Fed's strategy

As inflation gathered force in 2021 and 2022, the Federal Reserve notoriously waited too long to raise interest rates, allowing consumer prices to continue to climb sharply, Fed officials now acknowledge.

Now that inflation is easing, the Fed may be poised to make another blunder by moving too slowly to cut rates and triggering a recession, some economists argue.

"The longer they wait, the greater the risk that something goes off the rails," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

With annual inflation drawing closer to the Fed's 2% goal and risks to the economy growing, Zandi says the Fed should start lowering rates in March, or May at the latest. Inflation is running around 3% or slightly below, based on the two most popular measures, down from a 40-year high of up to 9.1% in June 2022.

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that a March cut is highly unlikely. And minutes from the Fed's late January meeting, released last week, have led some economists to push their predictions for the first rate decrease to June or later. Many of them say inflation still poses the bigger threat and the Fed is on the right track.

"I think they're right to be patient," says Barclays economist Mark Giannoni.

From March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed lifted its key short-term interest rate from near zero to a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% to help wrestle down inflation, which already was slowing as pandemic-related supply chain snarls resolved. Since then, the central bank has held the rate steady.

A drop in the benchmark rate would lower borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, cars and other consumer and business loans, stimulating the economy. The prospect of lower rates already has propelled the stock market to record highs.

But after its two-day meeting last month, Powell told reporters that, before slicing the rate, officials want to gain more confidence that inflation "is on a sustainable path down to 2%."

According to the minutes, most policymakers worried about the risk of acting too quickly to chop rates and reigniting inflation. Only "a couple" of officials pointed to the hazards of keeping rates high for too long and causing the economy to weaken significantly or slip into recession.

Several reports since the Fed meeting seemingly have vindicated the Fed's cautious approach. A "core" inflation measure that strips out volatile food and energy items increased a hefty 0.4% in January, keeping the annual rise at 3.9%, according to the consumer price index.

Last month, meanwhile, U.S. employers added a booming 353,000 jobs, and average annual wage growth – which feeds into inflation – jumped to 4.5% from 4.3%.

The economy also grew a sturdy 3.3% the last three months of 2023 and a solid 2.5% for the entire year. The takeaway: The economy is not only on solid footing but could drive inflation higher again as consumers continue to spend their rapidly rising paychecks.

Some forecasters have a different view. Granted, inflation flared in January but that's just one month and it was mostly due to persistent increases in rent and other housing costs, Zandi says. Rent hikes are expected to ease in coming months as falling rates for new leases ripple to existing leases.

Also, a different inflation measure that the Fed watches more closely – called the personal consumption expenditures price index, or PCE – was at 2.6% in December and the Fed's preferred core reading was at 2.6%, even closer to the 2% target.

If increases in core PCE prices over the past six months are annualized, inflation is already at 1.9%, Zandi notes. By that gauge, "You've achieved your objective," he says.

Meanwhile, Zandi says, the economy isn't as robust as it appears. Although job gains have been vigorous, the rate of hiring by employers in November hit the lowest level since 2014, excluding the pandemic recession. In other words, net job gains have been strong because employers have been loath to lay off workers following severe COVID-related labor shortages (aside from high-profile layoffs by companies such as Amazon, Google and Microsoft).

And although the nation's gross domestic product grew smartly last year, an alternative measure of economic output that some analysts say is more accurate – gross domestic income – has increased feebly.

Zandi, in turn, argues the risk of tipping the economy into recession is now greater than the chances of nudging inflation higher.

"You need to be careful that you're not going to keep your foot on (the economy's) brake too long," he says.

Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, agrees.

"If the central bank waits for clear signs that the labor market, or the broader economy, is deteriorating, it will be behind the curve," he says.

Zandi especially worries about an unforeseen banking crisis like the one that felled Silicon Valley Bank and other regional banks a year ago. High interest rates mean narrower profit margins that discourage banks from lending.

And while businesses so far have been reluctant to lay off workers, "that can change quickly," he says.

For example, declining profit margins could prod more companies to cut employees to maintain earnings, he says.

According to a model that accounts for a variety of economic indicators – including GDP, jobs and inflation – the Fed's key rate should already be at 4% rather than 5.25% to 5.5%, Zandi says. That would still be well above the Fed's long-run rate of 2.5%.

Economist Giannoni of Barclays agrees the risks of another price surge versus a recession are becoming more balanced. But he thinks inflation is still the bigger worry.

"We've been consistently surprised by the strength and resilience of the economy," he says. "There is a risk that's going to continue and it means the path to 2% inflation is not guaranteed."

While PCE inflation has come down, Giannoni says it could heat up again. Prices of services such as health care, auto insurance and dining out have continued to increase sharply, in part because of labor shortages that have kept average employee pay increases elevated, he says.

As for the risk that high interest rates could topple the economy into a downturn, "I don't see the probability of that being high," Giannoni says.