Data on Geophysics Discussed by Researchers at Northern Illinois University

Physics Daily News

2019 MAY 07 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Physics Daily News -- Investigators publish new report on Physics - Geophysics. According to news originating from DeKalb, Illinois, by NewsRx correspondents, research stated, “U.S. severe convective storms have grown to represent a 10 billion dollar annual peril for the insurance industry, and their accurate prediction remains a challenging task. This study examines days 1-15 severe convective storm predictions from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS).”

Our news journalists obtained a quote from the research from Northern Illinois University, “GEFS forecasts are based on the Supercell Composite Parameter and verified against spatially smoothed tornado and hail reports over the periods 1 March to 31 May 2016-2017. Skill is analyzed for deterministic forecasts (ensemble mean Supercell Composite Parameter exceeding specified thresholds) and probabilistic forecasts (fraction of ensemble members exceeding specified thresholds). Deterministic forecasts of tornado and hail activities are statistically more skillful than a random no-skill reference to days 9 and 12, respectively. Probabilistic forecasts are skillful relative to climatological no-skill reference to day 9 for tornado and day 12 for hail activity. These results provide a useful baseline for further improvement of tornado and hail forecasts at these ranges. Plain Language Summary Tornadoes and hailstorms represent a 10billion dollar annual peril for the insurance industry. Prediction of these extreme events at long lead times is a challenging task. This research shows that it is possible to use the Global Ensemble Forecast System to anticipate tornado and hail events in the United States at lead times beyond 1 week.”

According to the news editors, the research concluded: “This represents an important baseline for the improvement of tornado and hail forecasts at the subseasonal to seasonal time scales.”

For more information on this research see: Global Ensemble Forecast System (Gefs) Predictions of Days 1-15 Us Tornado and Hail Frequencies. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2019;46(5):2922-2930. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS can be contacted at: Amer Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Ave NW, Washington, DC 20009, USA. (American Geophysical Union - www.agu.org; GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS - http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/)

The news correspondents report that additional information may be obtained from V.A. Gensini, Northern Illinois University, Dept. of Geography & Atmospheric Science, De Kalb, IL 60115, United States.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081724. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.