Could a Sanders win sink other NC Democrats? Some are worried. Others, not so much

Feb. 24--The prospect of Sen. Bernie Sanders -- a self-described Democratic Socialist -- atop their ticket is giving heartburn to many North Carolina Democrats who worry that he would drag down other Democratic candidates.

"There's no doubt that what you call call establishment Democrats believe that Sanders would be a disaster in the fall," said Democrat Gary Pearce, a former operative who now writes about N.C. politics. "If I was running a Democratic campaign I would be worried."

But others say such fears may be premature.

"I don't think we have enough evidence now as to whether it would be a net gain for Democrats or a net loss," said political scientist David McLennan of Meredith College.

A week before North Carolina's March 3 primary -- and days before Saturday's South Carolina primary -- Sanders is riding high.

After taking the most votes in the Iowa caucuses, wins in New Hampshire and Nevada have pushed him to a double digit lead in Real Clear Politics' national polling average. A poll last week by WRAL found Sanders in a virtual first-place tie in North Carolina with former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former Vice President Joe Biden.

The same poll also showed all three Democrats beating President Donald Trump in the state, Sanders by 5 points.

But that hasn't stopped some Democrats from expressing concern.

"Nominating Bernie is the riskiest possible approach to beating Trump," said state Sen. Jeff Jackson of Charlotte. "It's sacrificing a big percentage of swing voters in the hope that you can make it up with newly engaged voters. It's possible, it's just a tremendous gamble."

Rep. Grier Martin of Raleigh agreed.

"He is not the best Democratic candidate from the perspective of who would help out down-ballot (candidates)," Martin said. "Some of his policy positions are further from the mainstream . . . That means he'll have less appeal to swing voters."

It's a prospect that has made Republicans almost giddy.

"Primary voters are feeling the Bern, but it's down-ticket Democrats who are starting to feel burned," the Republican State Leadership Committee said in a release Monday. "From the county courthouse to the White House, the 2020 elections at every level will center on Bernie Sanders' and Democrats' embrace of socialism."

Path to victory

Democratic consultant and blogger Thomas Mills is no fan of Sanders. Earlier this month he even compared a Sanders candidacy to that of 1972 nominee George McGovern, who lost in a landslide to Richard Nixon.

But then he looked at the numbers. On Monday he wrote that Sanders does have a path to win in North Carolina, like Barack Obama in 2008.

"Bernie Sanders has a clear path to victory and it's rooted in enthusiasm among young people," Mills wrote. "We already saw a surge in younger voters in 2018 and if it continues into 2020, Sanders could ride a wave overwhelming support that gives him the 50 point advantage they gave to Obama."

Entrance polls before Nevada's Saturday caucuses showed him winning voters 29 and below by 54 points. He also took 51% of the Latino vote and 27% of the African American vote, second only to Biden.

Sanders supporter Ray McKinnon of Charlotte, a member of the Democratic National Committee, said Sanders knows it's in his interest to have Democrats win seats for Congress and in the states.

McKinnon said he believes Sanders can appeal to those voters who backed Obama and Trump. There are six N.C. "pivot" counties that went for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and for Trump in 2016, according to Ballotpedia.

"I think Sanders will appeal to people who were disaffected in 2016 or sat out or voted for President Trump," McKinnon said.

Axios CEO Jim VandeHei wrote Monday that Democratic fears of Sanders could be overblown.

"Lots of Democrats are in full panic that Bernie Sanders will win the nomination and get clobbered in the general election -- and bring the party down, too," he wrote. "But the evidence, particularly the polling, doesn't back those doomsday warnings.

"It's not like Sanders hides his big government socialism -- he has screamed it to the nation for a half-decade. Maybe voters don't care."

'Gloom-and-doomers'

But Democrats like Dan Blue think they will.

"Whoever is at the top of the ticket is going to have to unite the party get an extraordinary turnout of voters," said Blue, the N.C. Senate Democratic leader. "It has not been shown to me yet that Sanders could do that. . . . If Sanders is proclaiming himself a Democratic Socialist, that's going to be a much more difficult hill to climb."

Blue said he had been for Biden. But Monday he and House Minority Leader Darren Jackson, both of Raleigh, endorsed Bloomberg. They said he's the one that can deal with issues they care about such as health care and education.

McLennan, the political scientist, said he's not ready to write off Sanders.

"I'm not one of those gloom-and-doomers who say Democrats are going to lose everything," he said. "Nor am I saying he's going to lead a socialist revolution in North Carolina."

Pearce said a lot of Democrats never believed Obama could win the White House.

"It's hard to believe that a 78-year-old socialist who just had a heart attack and has said nice things about Fidel Castro would do well in North Carolina," he said. "But then again, I didn't see an African American carrying North Carolina in 2008. And he did."

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