Big stuff: Healthcare costs about to explode

"Don't sweat the small stuff" is such good advice that it became the basis of a 1997 bestseller still in print today. Its subtitle, "And It's All Small Stuff," isn't so accurate, particularly when it comes to health insurance.

It's easy to imagine our brains being so oversaturated with the latest scandal or bad news that fresh information merely floods off the top like excess water over a dam. This is partly a self-defense mechanism and reflects our limited capacity to prioritize threats.

News that definitely fits in the category of small stuff is the cost of coffee. The wholesale price of beans spiked to an all-time high in February, went down and then spiked again in late April. The price receded but currently sits around 48% more than a year ago. Causes include climate change and tariffs — a large share of the U.S. coffee supply comes from Brazil, on which President Trump has slapped a 50% tariff.

People may disagree about whether coffee is a necessity or a luxury, but most of us will be able to adjust to several dollars more for our monthly supply — as we did with eggs and other minor shocks to our wallets and purses that generate big news coverage.

About to happen

We won't be so lucky when it comes to the cost of health insurance, which is on the launching pad for truly punishing increases. In comparison, hikes in the cost of groceries and consumer goods will seem like very small stuff.

"Wary of inflation, Americans have been watching the prices of everyday items such as eggs and gasoline. A less-noticed expense should cause greater alarm: rising premiums for health insurance. They have been trending upward for years and are now rising faster than ever," Elisabeth Rosenthal, senior contributing editor at Kaiser Family Foundation Health News, wrote in an Aug. 8 analysis.

She notes that insurance premiums have more than quadrupled since 1999 for people with employer-provided coverage, rising more than 6% between 2023 to 2024 alone. U.S. healthcare costs are going up so fast that 87% of companies expect the employer-based insurance system to become "unsustainable" within five to 10 years.

The situation is worse and more immediate for people who rely on the Affordance Care Act — informally known as Obamacare and operating the umbrella agency Oregon Health Plan here.

Nationwide, ACA premiums will be going up an average of 18%, according Peterson-KFF's Health System Tracker (www.healthsystemtracker.org). In Oregon, proposed ACA hikes are somewhat less drastic, though still painful: 12.5% from two providers, 12% from one, and 9.1%, 8.7% and 4% from others. Most are far more than the general rate of inflation.

Folks who purchase health insurance on the open market will see those increases within the next couple months — open enrollment for 2026 in the individual marketplace begins on Nov. 1, and carriers will send out renewal notices in October.

Price shocks

Out-of-pocket costs will be going up even more — as much as 75% for some — because of expiration of enhanced tax credits. Altogether, many can expect to see their healthcare and insurance expenses rise by thousands of dollars a year.

"Imagine if tens of millions of Americans' rent or mortgage payments were to suddenly increase by that amount," Rosenthal observes. Unlike prices that spike and then come down, there is no end in sight for ever-rising health insurance premiums and medical bills.

There's no denying that gyrating retail prices for basic consumer products like coffee, eggs and gasoline can force painful adjustments in household budgets. They are easy to grasp and played a role in the outcome of the 2024 election. But these pending increases in healthcare and insurance costs are far more consequential. They should be generating loads of calls and mail to members of Congress — particularly to those currently setting the ruling agenda.

This is big stuff.