AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Washington state for the Nov. 4 election

WASHINGTON (AP) — Washington state voters will decide whether to amend their constitution to allow funds from a long-term care insurance program to be invested in the stock market. It is the only statewide contest in a Nov. 4 election that will mostly feature mayoral and other municipal races across the state.

The proposed constitutional amendment, known as Senate Joint Resolution 8201, will shape the future of the WA Cares Fund, which the state Legislature created in 2019 to help participants defray the costs of certain long-term care services. Washington taxpayers fund the program though a 0.58% payroll tax, which began in July 2023. As of June 30, the fund had a balance of $2.5 billion.

Supporters of the proposal say that harnessing the growth potential from stock investments would secure the fund’s long-term stability. Opponents argue that private investments offer no guarantees and that market volatility could shrink the fund and result in reduced benefits or higher taxes. Stocks tumbled in April following President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping tariffs but rebounded by the summer.

This will be the second time in five years that this issue will appear on the ballot. About 54% of Washington voters rejected a similar ballot measure in Nov. 2020, compared to about 46% who voted in favor.

The state constitution generally bans the investment of public funds in private stocks and equities, but voters have approved several exemptions in the past, including for public pensions and retirement funds, workers’ compensation funds and a fund for individuals with developmental disabilities. Those funds are managed by the nonpartisan Washington State Investment Board, which would also oversee the WA Cares Fund if the ballot measure passes.

Since 1966, Washington voters have considered at least 10 proposed constitutional amendments to exempt certain funds from the ban on investing public funds in stocks and equities. Five of those measures passed, most recently in 2007.

Only three of Washington’s 39 counties voted in favor of the failed 2020 measure: King and Whatcom, where it received more than 58% of the vote, and Jefferson, where it received about 52%. King is home to Seattle and is the state’s most populous county. Pierce and Snohomish counties, the state’s second and third most populous located just to the north and south of King, both overwhelmingly rejected the proposal with nearly 60% of voters voting against.

In the 2024 general election, voters rejected a proposal that would have allowed workers to opt out of WA Cares, which would have hobbled the program.

The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Machine recounts in Washington state are automatic if the vote margin between the top two candidates is less than 2,000 votes and less than 0.5% of the total votes cast for both candidates. Manual recounts are required for statewide contests if the margin is less than 1,000 votes and less 0.25% of the total votes cast for both candidates. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

Here’s a look at what to expect on Nov. 4:

How late are polls open?

Polls close at 11 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot?

The AP will provide vote results and declare a winner in the statewide ballot measure. Other elections will be held across the state, including mayoral and municipal elections in Seattle and a handful of state legislative districts, but those contests will not be included in the AP’s vote tabulation.

Who gets to vote?

Any registered voter in Washington state may cast a ballot on the proposed constitutional amendment.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

There were about 5.1 million active registered voters in Washington state as of Oct. 1. Voters do not register by party.

Roughly 79% of registered voters cast valid ballots in the 2024 general election. Washington state conducts its elections almost entirely by mail. About 66% of voters delivered their ballots via drop box, 33% sent their ballots by mail and the remainder, less than 1%, used other methods, such as in-person voting.

In the 2021 general election, only about 39% of registered voters cast valid ballots. About 56% of voters used drop boxes, 43% sent their ballots by mail and 0.3% used other methods.

As of Thursday, about 244,000 absentee ballots had been received and accepted before Election Day. See the AP Early Vote Tracker for the latest update.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the 2024 presidential election in Washington state, the AP first reported results at 11:07 p.m. ET, or seven minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended just after midnight at 12:07 a.m. ET with about 66% of total votes counted. It took about three weeks for all counties to finish counting votes.

Are we there yet?

As of Nov. 4, there will be 364 days until the 2026 midterm elections and 1,099 days until the 2028 general election.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2025 election at https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2025/.