Suddenly, Michigan Republican Terri Lynn Land building steam in Senate race

Feb. 16--WASHINGTON -- When Michigan votes as a state, in recent history, it selects Democrats, not Republicans, for federal office. So why does it suddenly seem Terri Lynn Land has an edge in the race for the state's open U.S. Senate seat this fall?

Only months ago, Democrats were chiding Land -- a Republican former secretary of state who all but wrapped up her party's nomination when she entered the race -- as a second-tier candidate to replace Sen. Carl Levin.

But recently, it has been Land, not her presumptive Democratic opponent -- three-term U.S. Rep. Gary Peters of Bloomfield Township -- who has been hearing good news: Polls have her slightly ahead, though within the margin of error, and she out-raised Peters in the last three months of 2013.

In Washington, the Cook Political Report considers the race a toss-up, and pundit George Will says that in a state that hasn't elected a Republican U.S. senator in 20 years, hers is the hottest campaign in the nation, thanks to "a woman running there now with a musical name, Terri Lynn Land."

Nine months out, it's no exaggeration to say anything could happen: The candidates have not started to campaign in earnest; voters are largely disengaged from the process, and polls can change quickly. And in a race that could cost $30 million, the TV ad blitz hasn't even really begun.

But with majority control of the Senate in the balance, Republicans, already bullish on their chances after the botched rollout of the Affordable Care Act and President Barack Obama's low approval ratings, are hoping to widen the field beyond a shorter list of more competitive states.

Whether it stays there or not, for now, Michigan has joined the party: American Crossroads, the Karl Rove-connected super PAC, paid for a poll of the Michigan race, a potential mark of its interest. Americans for Prosperity, another conservative group, spent $1 million on ads hitting Peters.

Democrats not worried

Last month, circling the lobby of the Renaissance Hotel in Washington as the Republican National Committee meetings got under way, former state party Chairman Saul Anuzis stared into his cell phone and smiled at a report of new poll numbers.

"We're going to win this thing," he muttered.

Democrats don't seem worried, dismissing the poll numbers and fund-raising -- noting Land has put $1.6 million of her own money into the race -- as the early context of a race they will win. If some party members wonder whether they've underestimated Land, others believe Peters still has the edge.

Considering the Americans for Prosperity ad blitz, Land "should be up 6" points, not running in the margin of error against a lesser-known candidate, said Justin Barasky, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

A poll of 600 Michigan residents by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA, conducted Feb. 5 through Tuesday, showed Land slightly ahead of Peters, 41%-38%. But the margin of error is 4 percentage points, so the race is a statistical dead heat.

Democrats are preparing a campaign that will hammer away at Land's service as a member of the Republican National Committee and its support of rolling back abortion rights and turning Medicare into a plan that promises premium support, not guaranteed benefits.

Peters has a record of winning tough races, especially for Congress, and lost his only statewide election, for attorney general in 2002, by just 5,200 votes out of 3 million cast. He also has what his supporters can justifiably claim is an independent streak, which could help him with swing voters. But this time around, he will have to run against history, as well as with it.

Michigan hasn't elected a Republican nominee for Senate since 1994, but that was also the last time the state had an open seat and a Republican governor -- John Engler then, Rick Snyder now -- running atop the ticket. And in nonpresidential years like this one, Michigan turns perceptibly redder.

"If this was 2012, I'd say yes, it helps (Peters)," said the Cook Report's Jennifer Duffy. "In 2014, it may not."

Time for introductions

Land, from Byron Center in west Michigan, stacked up a strong record as secretary of state, cruising to wins in 2002 and in 2006, when Democrats were beating Republicans nationally and in Michigan.

She flirted with running for governor in 2010 but dropped out, re-emerging two years later as an RNC candidate. If early polls show anything, it's that her name recognition tops that of Peters, a Bloomfield Township Democrat and lottery commissioner under Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who wrested an Oakland County district from the GOP in 2008.

He survived a tea party scare in the Republican wave in 2010 and, marked for defeat in redistricting, took a Detroit-based district with the help of unions and black ministers. He is seen as an effective legislator, willing to work with Republicans, and a policy wonk.

Land, having run an agency that licenses drivers, administers elections and maintains branches across the state, is described as having grass-roots appeal and touts herself as "a mom, small business owner and public servant."

In the months ahead, expect both to try to better introduce themselves to the public and define their opponents on their own terms.

The Peters' campaign strategy is clear: It refers to what it calls Land's "anti-middle-class agenda." His campaign spokeswoman, Haley Morris, refers to his opponent as "former RNC Committeewoman" Terri Lynn Land at every opportunity.

Democrats claim Land hasn't been much in the public eye and have tried to suggest she has had improper communications with independent outside groups -- though that's a hard case to justify, especially since federal election officials have set such a high bar for what qualifies as prohibited.

Land's opponents also point out that her website has no link outlining her stance on the issues.

"So far, she hasn't really presented herself to voters in any significant fashion," said Democratic consultant Jill Alper. "It takes more than television ads to become a U.S. senator in Michigan."

There's no trouble finding Republicans, however, who feel that Land -- whose campaign counters that it has done dozens of events -- is doing precisely what's needed at this stage: generating buzz and raising money. As of Dec. 31, she had $3.3 million in cash to Peters' $2.9 million.

"At this stage of the game, it's probably all about fund-raising," said Anuzis, who noted that former state party Chairman Ron Weiser, one of the GOP's best fund-raisers, is a key part of the effort.

Land out-raised Peters in the last quarter even without her own contributions. And strategist John Yob said she will put out her own policy papers in the near future -- a move with which she could try to answer those defining her by her time on the RNC, which she quit two weeks ago.

Health care ammunition

If the Peters campaign plans to fight Land on many fronts, the Land strategy and that of the outside groups supporting her is probably far simpler, at least for now: It's the Affordable Care Act.

"In terms of issues, he's vulnerable because he was dishonest with the voters when he said they could keep their insurance if they wanted," Yob said.

Americans for Prosperity's ads claimed Peters, like President Barack Obama, told voters they could keep their insurance if they liked it under the health care reform law Peters supported in 2010. And while the ad took a clip of Peters making the statement out of context, the campaign declined to say whether Peters had repeated the claim in other settings, as the Free Press reported he had in 2009.

The ACA rollout is being used against Democrats nationwide. But Peters has already taken steps to try to distance himself from it: He broke with his party to support legislation by U.S. Rep. Fred Upton, a St. Joseph Republican, to allow insurers to keep selling policies discontinued under the law as a way to satisfy consumers. It passed the House but stalled after.

"He's never seen a perfect bill; he's never seen a perfect law," campaign spokeswoman Morris said of Peters' vote.

Land also voiced support for the Upton legislation, though some of her opponents have tried to characterize her stance -- favoring both outright repeal, as well as a fix -- as hypocritical; though it's a position many Republicans in Congress seemed comfortable with last fall.

Her campaign says it will hit Peters for an agenda it says has done little to create new jobs or economic opportunity in Michigan, and it almost certainly will try to align itself with Snyder's re-election campaign, which will try to show how his efforts have turned around state finances.

Potentially more difficult for Land to shake could be a comment cited by Democrats from a 2009 column in the Macomb Daily, in which she reportedly said that "(fiscal policy) was an area where I probably didn't have a lot of experience" following her brief governor's run. Her campaign has said it was meant only as a compliment to Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, whom she endorsed, not a slight to her own abilities. Still, expect her opponents to continue to quote it.

"She makes those kind of mistakes," said Barasky, the spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. "She misspeaks a lot."

The governor factor

In the end, the outcome of the governor's race could help determine the Senate winner and, as Anuzis pointed out, there could be coattails extended to Land both from Snyder above and a Republican Legislature below. Peters is counting on winning whether Democrat Mark Schauer pulls an upset or Snyder is re-elected, knowing Michigan's voters have split ballots before, knowing his home turf in Oakland County elected him and Snyder both in 2010.

We'll have to wait to see which one is right.

At the Rothenberg Political Report in Washington, Nathan Gonzales said he still thinks Peters is the favorite.

"Undeniably, the money race is close, the polls are close," he said, "but the burden of proof is still on the Republicans to show they are going to win a statewide federal race."

Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or [email protected]

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