Trump v Biden 2024: How did we get here?

To borrow some terminology from Starbucks, voter enthusiasm for the next week’s Super Tuesday primary election rapidly went from a venti to a tall, according to Amy Walter, publisher and editor in chief of Cook Political Report.

Walter gave a preview of the 2024 elections during the National Association of Benefits and Insurance Professionals Capitol Conference on Monday.

In 2023, it was possible that the 2024 presidential primary elections would be competitive, Walter said. In early 2023, former president Donald Trump saw fewer than half of Republican voters saying he was their top pick as president in 2024. As late as September 2023, more than 60% of Democrats said they wanted someone other than President Joe Biden as their party’s nominee.

Today, Trump has won the Republican primaries in every state that has held its primary so far, while Biden is on a certain path to winning his party’s nomination.

“Why did this happen and how did we get here?” Walter asked.

On the Republican side, polling data belied the challenge of uniting voters who said they either didn’t want Trump as their candidate or who were open to another candidate as their standard bearer.

“Think about the Republican base in this moment. Forty percent are hard-core Trump supporters. They aren’t going anywhere. That leaves 60% of Republican voters that you need to consolidate to win. But there are two groups within that 60%. One group is the ‘never Trump’ group. They will never support Trump; they want an alternative. The other group is what I call ‘sometime Trump’ or ‘alternative curious’ voters.”

Walter said the problem for a candidate trying to consolidate the “never Trump” group with the “alternative curious” voters is that those two groups have different priorities.

“The ‘never Trump’ group wanted someone completely different – someone more like George W. Bush for example,” she said. “The ‘sometime Trump’ group wanted a Trump-like candidate but maybe someone younger or maybe someone a little more disciplined.

“Putting them together, they don’t have much in common.”

On the Democratic side, Biden’s candidacy has some interesting challenges of its own, Walter said.

“The Republican donor/elite class definitely doesn’t want Trump. But the voters wanted him, so the elites lost out,” she said. “But on the Democratic side, the voters want an alternative to Biden but the elites and the donor class and the establishment want him.”

Democratic voters are united on one issue, she said. “They’ve got to beat Trump.”

Walter described Biden as “very much a transactional candidate.”

“There is no cult of personality around Biden. He’s not like Trump or [former president] Barack Obama who had real clear constituencies who were fired up about that candidate. Biden needs the coalition of voters who want to beat Trump.”

Walter noted that there is no obvious Democratic alternative to Biden. She said when Democratic voters were asked  in a recent poll who they wanted to see as their party’s nominee instead of Biden, most respondents said they didn’t know and only 13% said they wanted Vice President Kamala Harris.

“This is how we ended up with our sequel – Trump v Biden 2024 – the sequel nobody wanted,” she said.

Walter said the presidential election will be decided on the margins.

“Don’t expect a blowout. Our battle lines are as calcified as ever, the voters know both of these candidates very well and neither candidate can afford to lose any of them.”

Susan Rupe is managing editor for InsuranceNewsNet. She formerly served as communications director for an insurance agents' association and was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor. Contact her at Susan.Rupe@innfeedback.com. Follow her on X @INNsusan.

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Susan Rupe is editor in chief, magazine, for InsuranceNewsNet. She formerly served as communications director for an insurance agents' association and was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor. Contact her at susan.rupe@innfeedback.com.