New Health Care Proposal Would Leave 23M Uninsured

By Susan Rupe

Enacting the American Health Care Act (AHCA) would reduce federal deficits by $119 billion over the coming decade but increase the number of people who are uninsured by 23 million in 2026. That was the word from the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee on Taxation, which released their analysis of the AHCA Wednesday afternoon.

The AHCA was passed by the House of Representatives by a razor-thin margin on May 4. The CBO analysis has been awaited by the Senate, which is crafting its own version of health care reform.

CBO and JCT estimate that, in 2018, 14 million more people would be uninsured under the House-passed bill than under current law. The increase in the number of uninsured people relative to the number projected under current law would reach 19 million in 2020 and 23 million in 2026. In 2026, an estimated 51 million people under age 65 would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law. Under the legislation, a few million of those people would use tax credits to purchase policies that would not cover major medical risks.

The largest savings would come from reductions in outlays for Medicaid and from the replacement of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA’s) subsidies for nongroup health insurance with new tax credits for nongroup health insurance

The findings are similar to a CBO score of an earlier version of the bill that was withdrawn from a House vote earlier this year due to lack of support. That analysis found the AHCA would result in 24 million more Americans left without health insurance within 10 years.

The AHCA, as passed by the House, would result in lower average premiums for individual insurance, the CBO report says. That is partly because the insurance would pay for a smaller proportion of health care costs. In addition, the agencies expect that some people would use the tax credits authorized by the AHCA to purchase policies that would not cover major medical risks.

The AHCA would cut the deficit by $119 billion over a decade, primarily because of its cuts to Medicaid and private insurance subsidies, the CBO report said.

House Republicans passed the AHCA without a new CBO analysis. But significant changes were made to the original bill to help push it through the House. Among those changes was a provision that would allow states to opt-out of mandatory coverage for people with pre-existing conditions.

The fate of health care reform in the Senate is uncertain, with members of both parties saying major changes need to be made to the House version of the bill before the Senate can vote.

Susan Rupe is managing editor for InsuranceNewsNet. She formerly served as communications director for an insurance agents' association and was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor. Contact her at [email protected].