2024 will be a historic election year around the world

By Susan Rupe

This year will make a historic election year not only in the U.S. but around the world, as more than 4 billion people in 50 nations will have gone to the polls to select new leadership by the end of 2024.

The implications of those elections, as well as the U.S. presidential election, were the subject of a webinar held by the Center for Economic Development.

The elections themselves are not the entire story for 2024, said Michael Abramowitz, president of Freedom House. Democracy itself is at stake.

“The larger story for democracy than more than simply the elections,” he said. “Freedom House has documented a serious erosion of democracy in the world in the last 20 years and a rise in authoritarianism.

“One of our major concerns is that while many elections are competitive, more leaders are tilting the playing field to stay in power. Leaders are locking up their opponents, twisting election rules to their liking, taking over the media, really squeezing the public square to silence debate and dissent. One of the things we will look at this year is to what extent elections are free and fair.”

Alan Murray, CEO of Fortune, recently returned from the World Economic Forum 2024 in Davos, Switzerland.

“I don’t think there has ever been a time in my career when I saw CEO interest in an election as high as it is this year,” he said. “CEOs are saying that geopolitics is the biggest risk to their businesses across the board. Given the war in Ukraine, what’s happening in the Middle East, missiles fired at ships in the Red Sea – all of these have the potential to be risks to their businesses.”

On Jan. 13, Taiwan’s voters chose Lai Ching-te as that nation’s president, sparking increased fears of conflict with China. “If you’re a business that has a large interest in China, the prospect of tension between Taiwan and China is an outsized worry,” Murray said.

Another business risk that Murray said CEOs at Davos expressed is “what’s happening to Democracy in the U.S.”

“There’s a fear about what will happen if the election is close and one side refuses to accept the results. The folks on the right have just discredited and no longer want to hear about the FBI; the folks on the left don't believe in the Supreme Court. And so you have a very murky, dangerous situation where our institutions could be sorely tested in a very close and disputed election in the U.S.”

Likes and dislikes on both sides

Murray said that most of the Fortune 500 CEOs he talks to “don’t want to be anywhere in the vicinity of this election.” He explained that most CEOs have things they like and deeply dislike about both sides.

“On the Republican side, Donald Trump, they may like what he does on about tax cuts and a generally looser approach to regulation. But they're unhappy with his climate denialism; unhappy with his attack on diversity, equity and inclusion; unhappy with his trade policies; unhappy with his immigration policies, and they’re unhappy with his attacks on our democratic institutions.”

What Fortune 500 CEOs say they like about President Joe Biden, Murray said, “is his personal moderation.”

“And we haven’t talked about the three big accomplishments of the Biden era – the bipartisan infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. All of them have created massive new subsidy programs that many businesses have become reliant on and frankly, are making money off of so there's a lot of support for that.”

But on the minus side, Murray said Fortune 500 CEOs are unhappy with the Biden administration’s increased business regulatory actions.

U.S. voters pessimistic about election

Voters in the U.S. view the nation’s political system as broken, said Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“There's a widespread belief that that politicians no longer care about the average person and that the system is rigged,” he said. “These beliefs don't necessarily determine election outcomes directly. But they condition the environment in a way that it produces what we're seeing today - that is, a very strong anti-establishment candidate in Trump, running against the establishment candidate in Biden.”

Nativism – the widespread belief that the U.S. is being taken over by immigrants – “is one of the primary factors that determines Republicanism,” Young said. “A lot of our studies show that to be true and Trump has been doubling down on this issue.”

Biden “is hurting,” Young said. “There's a lot of polling that has shown that he's weakened, especially because of inflation. I think it's important to emphasize that this is potentially temporary as the macroeconomic scenario changes, and it is changing.”

The economy will be the key question on what the 2024 election will be about, Young said.

“But a huge point of uncertainty for this election is, what will be the main issue as the economy improves? What will replace the economy as a main issue? If it's saving democracy or one of the cultural war issues, then it will likely be a Biden victory. If the main issue stays on the economy, it’s likely to be a Trump victory. But the point is that today, we know that the macroeconomic situation is changing. We also understand that public opinion is a lagging indicator of economics, not a leading indicator. And we have a lot of road to go through before the election.”

Susan Rupe is managing editor for InsuranceNewsNet. She formerly served as communications director for an insurance agents' association and was an award-winning newspaper reporter and editor. Contact her at [email protected]. Follow her on X @INNsusan.