Why Is MetLife (MET) Up 6.7% Since Last Earnings Report?
A month has gone by since the last earnings report for
(MET). Shares have added about 6.7% in that time frame,
outperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next
earnings release, or is
into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take
a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a
better handle on the important drivers.
Unit
2023 adjusted operating earnings of
short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1%. The bottom line
improved 21% year over year.
Adjusted operating revenues of
quarter under review. The top line outpaced the consensus mark by
3.6%.
The quarterly results suffered due
to an elevated expense level, market risk benefit remeasurement
losses and feeble contributions from the
and
offset by improved investment returns, volume growth and solid
performances of the Group Benefits and RIS businesses.
Behind the Headlines
Adjusted premiums, fees and other
revenues ("PFOs"), excluding pension risk transfer ("PRT"), were
Adjusted net investment income of
back of increased returns from the private equity portfolio and
asset growth.
Total expenses escalated 33.2% year
over year to
claims, and interest credited to policyholder account balances. The
adjusted expense ratio, excluding total notable items related to
adjusted other expenses and PRT, improved 60 basis points (bps)
year over year to 20.6% in the quarter under review.
Net income of
63% year over year. Adjusted return on equity, excluding
accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) other than foreign
currency translation adjustments, improved 170 bps year over year
to 13.8%.
Reorganization of Segments
To reflect management
responsibility changes,
in the fourth quarter of 2023 and the company's reportable segments
were increased to six from five, namely, Group Benefits, Retirement
and Income Solutions ("RIS"),
Holdings
reported as the
Inside MetLife's Segments
Group Benefits: The segment's adjusted
earnings advanced 19% year over year to
quarter, higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of
The growth came on the back of favorable life underwriting margins
and expanding volumes. Adjusted PFOs of
over year.
RIS: The segment recorded adjusted earnings
of
consensus mark of
underwriting margins drove the unit's quarterly performance.
Adjusted PFOs, excluding PRT, surged 75% year over year to
billion
transfers.
Zacks Consensus estimate of
improved recurring interest margins. Adjusted PFOs dipped 1% year
over year to
earnings of
year over year on the back of increased volumes and an increase in
Chilean encaje returns. However, the figure lagged the consensus
mark of
billion
EMEA: Adjusted earnings of the segment
declined 27% year over year to
review, lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of
decrease was due to the incidence of an unfavorable tax charge
compared with a favorable tax benefit in the year-ago quarter and
less favorable underwriting margins. Adjusted PFOs of
grew 5% year over year on the back of growing sales across the
region.
earnings were
fourth quarter and lagged the consensus mark of
decline was due to foregone earnings, which stemmed from the
reinsurance transaction that was concluded in
Adjusted PFOs slipped 11% year over year to
Corporate & Other: The unit incurred an
adjusted loss of
than the prior-year quarter's loss of
Financial Update (as of Dec 31,
2023)
with cash and cash equivalents of
2.2% from the 2022-end level. Total assets of
increased 3.7% from the figure at 2022 end.
Long-term debt totaled
billion
debt amounted to
Total equity of
inched up 0.4% from the 2022-end level.
operations of
2022 figure. Free cash flows were recorded at
down 32.7% year over year.
Book value per share was
of
Capital Deployment Update
around
additional repurchases of roughly
Full-Year Update
Adjusted earnings per share of
figure. Adjusted revenues slipped 3.5% year over year to
billion
Adjusted PFOs, excluding PRT, of
plunged 73% year over year to
2024 Outlook
Management anticipates variable
investment income to be around
& Other adjusted losses are estimated to be between
million
within 24-26%.
witness year-over-year decline of 13-15% in 2024. The unit's
adjusted earnings are forecasted within
2024.
Adjusted earnings in the
segment are anticipated to record growth of around 20%, while the
same in the EMEA unit is likely to remain within
for each quarter of 2024.
Near-Term Targets
Over the next three years,
projects adjusted PFOs in the Group Benefits business to rise in
the range of 4-6%. Adjusted PFOs of the
are anticipated to increase within 4-6% per year, while the same in
the
high-single-digit and mid-single-digit growth, respectively. The
Group Life mortality ratio is likely to stay within 84-89%.
return on equity within 13-15%. It is expected to keep the free
cash flow ratio within the 65-75% range of adjusted earnings. The
direct expense ratio is targeted to be 12.3%.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in
estimates review.
VGM Scores
At this time,
with the same score on the momentum front. However, the stock was
allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top 20%
for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of
aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be
interested in.
Outlook
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and
the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift.
Notably,
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