What’s at stake in the Alabama Senate race

Nov. 26--ANALYSIS

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For the past two weeks, Alabama's U.S. Senate race has been as much about who you believe as it is about what you believe.

Republican candidate Roy Moore's campaign has been reeling from allegations that Moore, a former judge and well-known social conservative activist, pursued teen girls romantically while he was in his 30s.

Moore has denied the claims, and his most ardent followers say they believe his word before they'll believe a newspaper.

Supporters of Democrat Doug Jones say a vote for him is a sign of support for women who've suffered abuse.

No matter who wins, the new senator will eventually confront the issues that were already on the table before the allegations against Moore emerged -- issues the candidates have never debated face-to-face.

Here's a look at some of the key matters that could face the new senator on his first day in office.

TAXES

If not for the Moore controversy, the Republican tax plan now working its way through Congress would probably have been the top news story in the country for the past week.

Analysts differ on exactly how the plan will affect people at different income levels, but there's widespread agreement that wealthier people would see more advantage from the plan.

VOTER REGISTRATION ENDS MONDAY

-- New voters can register online at alabamavotes.gov until 11:59 p.m. Monday

-- You can also register in person at the Calhoun County Board of Registrars until 4:30 p.m. Monday

-- If you're not sure whether you're registered, check your status at alabamavotes.gov

Mark Mazur, an analyst at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center said 90 percent of Americans would see a cut in the first ten years, but as certain provisions of the bill expire, 25 to 50 percent of the public would wind up paying more. And those higher-paying people would be more common in the lower income brackets.

The cost of the plan is $1.5 trillion over 10 years. Mazur said there's no plan to offset the tax cuts with spending cuts right now, so the cuts would essentially be paid for with deficit spending.

Republicans have cited the plan as one reason Moore, despite his travails, should be elected to Congress. But Moore has said little about the plan, and it's unclear whether he'd vote for it.

Jones has criticized the tax bill, saying it will give tax cuts to the wealthy at the expense of the poor.

Will Alabama's new Senator have a chance to weigh in on the bill? Republican leaders are pushing for a vote in the Senate by the end of this week. If that happens, it's likely the House and Senate will have to go into negotiations over differences between their versions of the bill. A lot depends on how quickly Republicans can rally support behind the plan.

CHILDREN'S HEALTH INSURANCE

Child advocates were stunned this year when Congress failed to pass funding for the Children's Health Insurance Program, once held up by lawmakers as a bipartisan success story.

"This should have been a no-brainer," said Jim Carnes, an analyst for Alabama Arise, nonprofit which advocates for people living in poverty.

CHIP, as the program is known, provides health insurance directly to more than 80,000 kids in Alabama, and pitches in the funding for more than 70,000 Alabama kids who get their insurance through Medicaid. The goal of the federally-funded program, approved 20 years ago, is to make sure children have health insurance even if their parents can't afford a family plan.

Congress still hasn't passed a funding bill for the program for the 2018 fiscal year, which began in October. Alabama officials say their CHIP program can operate on money already in hand until early next year. Other states may take the first steps toward shutting their programs down in the next couple of weeks, Carnes said.

Jones, the Democratic candidate, has made renewed funding for CHIP a core message of his campaign.

"Fund the CHIP program now," Jones tweeted to senators last week. "Don't wait for me to get up there."

Moore, the Republican, hasn't declared a clear position on the issue. In his most recent Anniston campaign stop Moore said he "hadn't had a chance to review the issue." Attempts to reach Moore's campaign for comment this week were unsuccessful.

JUDICIAL APPOINTMENTS

The Senate is now considering the confirmation of Brett Talley, a 36-year-old lawyer and Birmingham native, as a federal judge for the middle district of Alabama.

There's a sharp partisan divide around Talley, a Trump appointeewho has never tried a case, and who is known for writing books on the paranormal.

Jones has said he'd give Talley a fair hearing if the nomination is before him as senator, but he's also taken Talley to task for not disclosing to the Senate that he's married to a White House lawyer, something a nominee would normally disclose.

It's unclear whether Roy Moore has made any public comment on Talley's nomination.

ABORTION

Some of Moore's Republican supporters say that even with sexual misconduct allegations hanging over him, Moore is worth voting for because of one issue: abortion.

Jones from the beginning has been open about his support for abortion rights -- an issue on which Alabama Democratic candidates have often veered well to the right of their party.

Moore's campaign has often depicted Jones as a supporter of abortion rights until the point of birth, an allegation Jones denies. Jones in a television interview earlier this year said "once a baby is born... I become a right to lifer."

Democrats often claim that Republicans cease to be pro-life once a child is born, and it's likely Jones simply flubbed the talking point.

Still, there is potentially much at stake on Dec. 12 for both sides in the abortion debate. While the Senate seat is just one out of 100, the Senate is now almost evenly divided. The Trump presidency gives Republicans a chance to tip the Supreme Court toward banning abortion, and senators will cast the vote confirming any new nominee.

That's one likely reason some Republicans stand behind Moore despite his negatives as a candidate, said Lori Owens, a political science professor at Jacksonville State University.

"Moore may limp across the finish line, but he'd still be someone they could count on for a Supreme Court vote," Owens said.

Capitol & statewide reporter Tim Lockette: 256-294-4193. On Twitter @TLockette_Star.

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