What US recession? GDP keeps plowing ahead

For more than a year, economists have warned that the United States was bound for recession. So far, the economy refuses to go along.

The government has twice upgraded its estimate of January-March growth. In its final assessment, it determined that the gross domestic product — the nation's total output of goods and services — grew at a 2% annual rate in the first three months of 2023. That was up from previous estimates of 1.1% and 1.3%.

Fueling the economy is the willingness of consumers to spend. Their spending, supported by a job market that has boosted confidence and pay raises, rose at a 4.2% annual pace from January through March, the fastest quarterly rate in nearly two years. The economy is rolling despite 10 interest rate hikes in 16 months from a Federal Reserve intent on defeating high inflation. Still, higher borrowing costs have taken a toll. Though the first quarter's growth was solid, it was down from a 3.2% rate from July through September and 2.6% for October-December. Forecasters think GDP growth slowed again, to around 1%, in the April-June quarter.