Weekly jobless claims head downward again NC weekly unemployment benefit claims return to downward trend

North Carolina returned last week to its recent trend of a slight decrease in weekly unemployment insurance claims, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday.

The department reported there were 3,237 claims, compared with a revised 4,232 for the week that ended Jan. 15.

The pandemic low has been 1,848 claims for the week that ended Jan. 1.

With no COVID-19 pandemic UI programs available for North Carolinians since Sept. 4, the claim totals represent new regular state unemployment-benefit claims.

U.S. Labor listed 14,811 North Carolinians drawing regular state benefits as of Jan. 8, down from a revised 15,860 the previous week.

The state was 22nd in the nation in the number of unemployment filings, up one spot from last week.

A bump in N.C. claims is likely soon related to the Dec. 18 fire at a QVC distribution center in Rocky Mount.

The company announced it was closing the facility, affecting 1,953 employees. In a WARN Act notice filed with the N.C. Commerce Department, QVC said it plans to begin permanently letting go of employees beginning Feb. 1.

The national filing of initial UI claims was at 260,000, down 30,000 from the week that ended Jan. 15.

Overall, claims in N.C. have been down in part as employers remain reluctant to lay off workers in a tight job market.

"Both initial and continuing claims for regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation have been trending downward for the past few months," said John Quinterno, principal with South by North Strategies Ltd., a Chapel Hill research company specializing in economic and social policy.

"Improvements in the labor market likely account for some of this, as people are less likely to be laid off and may have an easier time finding work due to tighter labor markets."

Still little impact

The expiration of federal jobless benefits on Sept. 4 has yet to result - projected for months by federal and state Republican lawmakers - in a wave of unemployed North Carolinians returning to the state's workforce.

The $300 per week extended federal UI payments kept some potential employees on the sidelines since they made more from not working than in a minimum- to low-wage job.

According to the monthly household employment survey, there was a 16,003 month-over-month gain in the state's labor force during December, following a 7,956 increase in November, 4,786 gain in October and 10,423 jump in September.

The December labor force totals represented a 25,884 uptick in those listed as employed, as well as a 9,881 decline in those listed as unemployed.

People who are not actively looking for work are counted as part of the labor force, but excluded from the calculations for determining the state, metropolitan statistical and county-level jobless rates.

By comparison, there was a net gain of 11,761 in the state's labor force from July to August - before the federal pandemic relief benefits expired.

Taking a year-over-year look, the state's labor force is up just 0.4%, or from 5.06 million to 5.04 million. That represents a net gain of 138,178 listed as employed and 120,492 no longer listed as unemployed.

Yet, several Republican legislators continue to press - including at recent meetings focused on COVID-19 federal relief funding distribution - that the labor shortage still remains tied to what they considered as overly generous federal UI benefits.

"The biggest concern in the labor market is the delayed recovery of the labor force," PNC Financial Services Group economist Abbey Omodunbi said.

"The labor force is gradually increasing and should improve moderately this year, although it is possible that the pandemic has structurally changed the composition and size of the labor force."

Vaccines and employers

Another factor, according to legislators and state Labor commissioner Josh Dodson, is the attempt by the Biden administration to require large employers to implement employee vaccine or weekly testing mandates.

The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 to bar the executive order, but also voted 5-4 to allow the executive order to proceed for most health care workers.

The Supreme Court decision puts the onus of vaccine mandates back on large employers, said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of global outplacement and business for Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc.

"Now that large companies are not required to get their workers vaccinated or tested, employers will have to grapple with whether and how to impose their own rules, outbreaks that lead to absences, and pushback from workers who have COVID concerns," Challenger said.

"Companies are experiencing pushback from workers on return-to-office plans, and an absence of vaccine or testing policies will likely exacerbate that pushback.

"Employers will need to create not just policy that works for their individual companies, but clear communications on what these policies entail to their workers. They won't be able to use OSHA as cover for any decisions."

Challenger said that "employers are rightly concerned about an exodus of talent, as workers flee to other opportunities or leave positions that do not meet their needs."

"While many are concerned vaccine mandates create yet another hurdle to attracting and retaining workers, others see it as a selling point.

"Job seekers - who have the upper hand in a tight labor market with record numbers of job openings - will use companies' vaccine policies to make decisions on which jobs to take."

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