USD/ZAR Analysis: Accepted Equilibrium and Speculative Price Realm – 22 July 2024

The USD/ZAR is trading slightly higher in early price action this morning as the currency pair flirts with the higher realms of its near term range.

-- The USD/ZAR currency pair is trading near the 18.28300 mark as of this writing as healthy fluctuations are being displayed on trading platforms.
-- The USD/ZAR has traded higher since last Wednesday and touched the 18.37610 mark on Friday before going into the weekend.
-- When opening this morning the USD/ZAR briefly dropped to a low around the 18.19330 vicinity but quickly bounced higher.
Recent trading in the USD/ZAR has established a higher price realm and it is becoming accepted perhaps that the current values being seen in the currency pair are demonstrating an accepted equilibrium by financial institutions. While the USD/ZAR certainly still must react to USD centric notions about U.S Federal Reserve interest rate policy, the currency pair still has many South African domestic issues which effect value.

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Lower Realms and Restrained Optimism for the USD/ZAR

The USD/ZAR has accomplished a definite lower price range since the third week of April, but the currency pair was touching the 19.00000 mark late in first week of June as nervous flourished. The results of the coalition government coming to power has created optimism in South Africa regarding potential to improve economic conditions, but there are no guarantees. And now financial institutions will want to see budgetary, fiscal and transparency from the South African government before they sell the USD/ZAR blindly.

The ability of the USD/ZAR to test the 18.00000 price as recently as the 12th of July has not disappeared as a viable price realm to be targeted, but for this to happen impetus will also have to come from the U.S and global investors may be a bit cautious in the short-term. The announcement by Joe Biden that he will not run in the coming U.S Presidential race is not the greatest surprise of this lifetime, but it creates open questions about what will happen in November regarding Kamala Harris and her ability to run against Donald Trump. The shadow of unknowns may cause nervousness among some financial institutions.

U.S Data This Week and the USD ZAR

-- The U.S will publish Gross Domestic Product data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures statistics later this week. Both reports will affect the USD/ZAR.
-- If U.S data is weaker than expected later this week this could help propel some selling of the USD/ZAR.
Traders hoping to catch more downside from the USD/ZAR may be making the logical choice regarding a wagering perspective, but trading in the short and near-term could move because of slight shifts via behavioral sentiment. Again, while many have known the decision by Joe Biden not to run for President was likely, but the fact that he won’t be may cause some early nervousness this week which may limit risk appetite.

USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 18.29750

Current Support: 18.27560

High Target: 18.32440

Low Target: 18.25110

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