USD/MXN Analysis: Lows Traversed as Important Sentiment Considered – 16 September 2025

As of this morning the USD/MXN is near the 18.35000 level depending on the bids and asks filtering through trading platforms, and as large players anticipate tomorrow’s U.S Fed policy decisions.

The USD/MXN is trading near values it has not seen since the fourth week of July 2024. The USD/MXN as of this writing is near the 1.35000 vicinity with a rather wide spread being practiced in the early morning. Financial institutions have correlated the USD/MXN with the broad Forex market matching USD centric weakness which has incrementally increased the past handful of days.

Large Forex traders are clearly anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut tomorrow. However, the Fed’s FOMC Statement after the anticipated cut of 25 basis points is announced is what could cause widespread fireworks in the USD/MXN tomorrow and into Thursday. If the Fed acknowledges another rate cut may be needed in October this could set the table for more USD weakness, but behavioral sentiment perceptions need to be interpreted and this is likely to cause volatility.

The 18.30000 Level as a USD/MXN Target

Long-term charts will need to be looked at by day traders who are trying to navigate the sentiment of larger players in the USD/MXN. The currency pair is within waters traded in July of 2024 which is an achievement considering all of the noise between Mexico and the U.S since the election of President Trump. However, it is also a result of fear that was generated after the Mexican Presidential election in the early summer of 2024. The USD/MXN was trading near the 16.85000 realm in early June of 2024.

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But day traders, nor large financial institutions are about to get too optimistic quite yet about the USDMXN capability of suddenly traversing the lows seen in June of 2024. Instead they will be content with the fact the currency pair has pushed lower and a bearish trend remains intact. The 18.300000 level for the moment may remain a target. Trading in the USD/MXN may remain rather consolidated the next handful of hours, but by this time tomorrow volatility will emerge.

Looking for Lower Values in the USD/MXN

All Forex eyes will be on the U.S Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement on Wednesday. The Fed is guaranteed to cut its interest rate tomorrow and the 25 basis point deduction has been priced into the USD/MXN already. Anything different regarding the size of the interest rate cut from the Fed tomorrow would cause bedlam.

-- Tomorrow’s FOMC outlook will guide speculative sentiment among financial institutions.
-- The fact that the USD/MXN is traversing long-term lows is a sign that many believe the Fed will sound dovish tomorrow regarding another possible rate cut in October.
-- However, this has to be proven first, and if it happens lower realms may be challenged in the USD/MXN.
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USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 18.36500

Current Support: 18.34070

High Target: 18.40100

Low Target: 18.24900

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