US jobs report for June is likely to point to slower but still-solid hiring
When the
From the Fed’s perspective, a deceleration in hiring to a still-decent pace would be just about ideal. It would suggest that the job market is slowing enough to ease pressure on employers to sharply raise pay, which could feed inflation, yet not so much as to cause waves of layoffs.
That said, economists been repeatedly predicting that the job market would lose momentum in the face of high interest rates engineered by the Fed, only to see the hiring gains show unexpected strength. The economy has added a healthy average of 248,000 jobs a month so far in 2024. That’s close to the 2023 average of 251,000, though down from the sizzling gains of 2022 (an average of 377,000 added jobs each month) and 2021 (a record 604,000) as the economy roared back from COVID-19 recession.
“The labor market has really proven the doubters wrong,’’ said
Still, Flowers suggested, the much higher borrowing costs caused by the Fed's rate hikes will eventually weaken the job market.
“Eventually," he said, "it’s going to bend, but not break. The slow bite of high interest rates is going to moderate job growth.’’
Already, there are signs of an economic slowdown. The
Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of all
Still, while employers might not be hiring so aggressively after having struggled to fill jobs the past two years, they aren’t cutting many, either. Most workers are enjoying an unusual level of job security.
“Businesses are hiring less amid cooler demand conditions," said
During 2022 and 2023, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate 11 times to try to conquer the worst streak of inflation in four decades, lifting its key rate to its highest point in 23 years. The punishingly higher borrowing rates that resulted, for consumers and businesses, were widely expected to trigger a recession. They didn't. The economy and the job market instead have shown surprising resilience.
Meanwhile, inflation has steadily declined from a 9.1% peak in 2022 to 3.3%. In remarks this week at a conference in
Fed officials are sure to be watching Friday’s jobs report for signs that wage pressures are easing. According to FactSet, forecasters believe that average hourly earnings rose 3.9% last month from a year earlier. That would be the smallest such gain since
The jobs report comes as Americans are weighing the health of the economy in advance of the November presidential election. Many blame President
Some Americans are also feeling the effects of a weakening labor market. One of them,
“Since then, it’s been a real struggle to find a new opportunity," said Hennington, 32, who said he has applied for more than 250 positions.
“Most places completely ghost me after saying they’ll get back to me quickly with a follow-up,’’ he said. “It’s been exhausting mentally, and even though I have 10 years in the marketing field, I’m struggling to find a new role. I’ve had to resort to picking up freelance gigs and part-time jobs just to have some income coming in.’’
Process for Determining That an Individual Shall Not Be Deemed an Employee of the Public Health Service
June Operational Update Form 6 K
Advisor News
Annuity News
Health/Employee Benefits News
Life Insurance News