Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne Reports Findings in Science (Misperception, self-reported probabilities and long-term care insurance take-up in the United States): Science

2026 FEB 23 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at NewsRx Science Daily -- Current study results on Science have been published. According to news reporting originating in Paris, France, by NewsRx journalists, research stated, “In the United States as in other developed countries, the take-up of Long-Term Care (LTC) insurance remains very low, suggesting that many individuals underestimate their future needs for professional LTC services. This paper examines the relationship between subjective expectations and LTC insurance demand, with a particular focus on miscalibration of survival beliefs.”

The news reporters obtained a quote from the research from Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, “Using 12 waves of the Health and Retirement Study (1996-2018), we estimate various random effects linear probability models of LTC insurance take-up among individuals aged 50-75 years. We rely on two self-reported expectation measures: the probability of survival and the probability of nursing home entry. We then classify individuals into three groups - consistent, positive deviation, and negative deviation - based on the difference between subjective survival beliefs and life-table benchmarks. Robustness analyses are carried using alternative miscalibration measures, age groups and control variables. Our findings reveal strong heterogeneity. Individuals whose beliefs are consistent with life-table probabilities purchase more LTC insurance when they expect to live longer, in line with higher anticipated old-age expenditures. By contrast, individuals who substantially overestimate survival (‘positive deviation’ group) display no systematic response to either type of expectation, which could be related to cognitive difficulties in projecting future needs. Those who underestimate survival (‘negative deviation’ group) are responsive to nursing home expectations but less so to survival, indicating that they may anticipate short-term care needs but not long-term expenditures. Taken together, these results suggest that miscalibration of survival beliefs is an important determinant of insurance demand.”

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: “They highlight that underestimation and overestimation reflect different mechanisms - potential private health information in the former case and cognitive limitations in the latter - ultimately contributing to the persistently low take-up of LTC insurance in the U.”

This research has been peer-reviewed.

For more information on this research see: Misperception, self-reported probabilities and long-term care insurance take-up in the United States. International Journal of Health Economics and Management, 2026;26(1):3. International Journal of Health Economics and Management can be contacted at: Springer, One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, Ny, United States.

Our news correspondents report that additional information may be obtained by contacting Thomas Blavet, Universite Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne, 106-112 bd de l’Hopital, Paris, FR-75647, France. Additional authors for this research include Bertrand Chopard, Thomas Rapp and Jonathan Sicsic.

The publisher of the International Journal of Health Economics and Management can be contacted at: Springer, One New York Plaza, Suite 4600, New York, Ny, United States.

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