Tom Still: Six forces shaping Wisconsin’s economy

A mix of internal and external trends are shaping Wisconsin's economy in myriad ways. Here are a half-dozen to keep in mind.

Pandemic side effect: waning subsidies

Ending the federal government shutdown depends on whether Congress will extend enhanced health insurance subsidies in place since 2021. Democrats want those COVID-era bonuses to continue so out-of-pocket premiums don't rise in 2026 for about 20 million Americans. Republicans say pandemic subsidies are no longer warranted, especially with the federal debt climbing by the minute. For businesses and others who provide health insurance, as well as health care providers themselves, there are no easy answers. Expect higher costs to ripple through the economy.

Tariffs & farmers & market bears, oh my!

President Trump imposed tariffs on many foreign-made goods in hopes of luring manufacturing back to the United States. That's helping to bring some factories home, but it's raising consumer prices across the board. Global retaliation makes it harder to sell some manufactured goods and commodities, such as soybeans, as buyers find other sources. Some trade partners see the United States as increasingly unpredictable.

The immigration crackdown has proven overly broad in some core industries, such as Wisconsin's dairy farms and in other tough, dirty jobs shunned by many native-born Americans. Stock markets are at near-record levels, but inflation and global tensions have some investors worried about what happens if the artificial intelligence bubble bursts. Speaking of which …

Keeping the lights on (and affordable)

Data centers that power AI are being planned or built across Wisconsin, providing jobs for many but raising worries for others. Can enough electricity be generated to satisfy AI's appetite as well as society's general power needs?

With a balanced approach engaging solar, wind, hydro, battery storage, natural gas and small module nuclear power, the answer is a qualified "yes." The trick is securing public support, not only for the generation options and conserving water used to cool data centers, but also for transmission lines to carry the power where it's needed.

Utilities are already heavily regulated. Without generation and transmission balance, everyone will pay more and wait longer for reliable power.

Worker shortage?

As baby boomers age out, are there enough workers in generations X, Y, Z and Alpha? Wisconsin isn't losing population, but it's not adding many young or working-age people, either. Over time, this complicates how employers in all sectors find the workers they need.

The state's population grew from 5.91 million in 2023 to 5.96 million in 2024. However, workforce participation rates range sharply across Wisconsin's 72 counties, according to a January 2025 report by the Badger Institute. It averaged around 85% in counties mostly clustered in the southern half of the state and 75% for many counties in northern and central Wisconsin. That may reflect an aging population, lower birth rates or both. Another online report showed 307,874 Wisconsin children under 5 years old in 2023 compared to 303,044 in 2024.

Keeping younger people in Wisconsin is vital, even in an era when online workers can be recruited around the world.

It's not your dad's degree anymore

Amid reports of recent graduates finding it tougher to find jobs, some college-age students are wondering if they would rather be a carpenter, electrician or plumber versus an anthropologist, historian or fine arts curator. Technical colleges and industry trade schools are a strong option for some young people.

Undergraduate enrollment in the Universities of Wisconsin system is nonetheless holding its own. Fall 2025 enrollment throughout the 13 four-year schools is up, largely due to a spike in Wisconsin resident freshman enrollment. Don't be surprised, however, if more two-year campuses such as the UW-Platteville's Baraboo campus are shuttered for efficiency.

Research is everyone's business

Skepticism over science has found a home in Trump's remodeled White House, especially when it comes to medical research. UW-Madison is ranked in the nation's top 10 in research spending in all forms, but cutbacks are not just a threat to the system's flagship. Every UW campus and most private colleges, such as Marquette and the Medical College of Wisconsin, engage in research that could save lives and bolster the economy.

Give RFK Jr. credit for wanting Americans to eat healthier and exercise more, but let's not trust him with the future of curing scourges such as cancer.