Thanksgiving dinner will cost less this year as inflation cools

Families will have something extra to be grateful for at Thanksgiving as the price of a turkey dinner falls for the second straight year.

The American Farm Bureau Federation reported Wednesday that the average Thanksgiving feast for 10 people will cost Americans $58.08, or about $5.80 per person. That's down 5% from $61.17 in 2023, when prices fell 4.5% from a record high of $64.05 in 2022.

The agriculture industry group credited falling turkey prices for tamping down overall dinner costs. According to the federation, the average 16-pound turkey will cost $25.67 or $1.68 per pound this year, down 6% from last year.

“The turkey is traditionally the main attraction on the Thanksgiving table and is typically the most expensive part of the meal,” said Bernt Nelson, AFBF economist. “The American turkey flock is the smallest it’s been since 1985 because of avian influenza, but overall demand has also fallen, resulting in lower prices at the grocery store for families planning a holiday meal.”

The federation estimated the annual holiday feast will still cost 19% more than before the coronavirus pandemic in 2019. The group has tracked the prices of turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, pumpkin pie and other staples in 39 annual surveys.

This year’s survey found prices have dropped on average between roughly 3% and 26% for frozen pie crusts, carrot-and-celery veggie trays, frozen peas, whole milk, miscellaneous ingredients, pumpkin pie mix and sweet potatoes.

At the same time, the farm bureau reported average prices are up between roughly 5% and 12% for stuffing mix, whipped cream, frozen dinner rolls and fresh cranberries.

Several industry analysts reached for comment said cooling inflation numbers confirm the nation’s turkey supply has adjusted to the effects of a record Avian flu outbreak in 2022.

However, they said rising labor and production costs continue to jack up the prices of processed food items.

“It is a supply and demand situation,” said Angelica Gianchandani, a marketing instructor at New York University. “With more turkey available and fewer health issues affecting them, the price has dropped.”

In 2022, the U.S. faced its biggest and longest outbreak as Avian flu affected nearly 59 million turkeys. Since then, industry adjustments have improved the supply of birds and lowered prices.

Executives at Butterball, which produces one in every three turkeys served at Thanksgiving nationwide each year, said Avian flu had minimal impact on this year’s supply.

“Fortunately, Butterball has experienced little direct impact from avian influenza in 2024, and there are plenty of turkeys available for consumers this Thanksgiving,” said Al Jansen, Butterball's executive vice president of sales and marketing. 

The North Carolina-based poultry producer said that half of consumers responding to a recent survey said they would not change their celebrations to save on inflation costs. Another 19% of consumers pledged to save money on side dishes and 18% planned to save on paper goods plates and decorations.

Matt Busardo, a North American poultry analyst for the British-based market researcher Expana, said another factor in falling prices is that poultry demand has steadily declined in the U.S. since 2020.

“U.S. consumers are purchasing fewer turkeys as the primary protein for their Thanksgiving meals,” Mr. Busardo said.

“Some of this trend may result from a post-COVID shift, where large gatherings, for which whole turkeys are well-suited, are becoming less common,” he added. “Other contributing factors could include changing demographics and preferences, as Millennial and Gen Z heads of households increasingly opt for different proteins.”

Other recent reports echo the American Farm Bureau Federation’s findings.

Datasembly, a market research firm that tracks grocery store purchases directly, estimates the average Thanksgiving meal will cost $50.58, about $3 or 6% less than last year.

Datasembly measured prices for russet potatoes, roasted turkey, gravy, buttermilk biscuits, cut green beans, jellied cranberry sauce and sweet corn. The company surveyed prices at Walmart, Albertsons, Kroger, Target and other retailers.

Processed food is bucking the downward trend, however.

Pattern, a market research firm that tracks the average purchase price of foods sold at Amazon.com, projects that prepackaged pies ranging from cherry to pumpkin will cost between 4% and 12% more than last Thanksgiving.

“Prices for many staple ingredients have either remained stable or decreased slightly, especially when compared to the current inflation rate,” said Ellen Ford, a Pattern spokeswoman. “However, pies are the biggest outlier this year, with prices for popular varieties rising.”

In a survey of roughly 2,000 adults released last week, the online financial services company Lending Tree found that 1 in 10 planned to skip hosting a gathering this year due to budgetary concerns.

Adiana Castro, a dietitian in New York City, said people struggling with financial hardships this month should consider buying fresh and in-season foods to save money. She also suggested roasting a smaller turkey or buying a ham as a more affordable substitute.

“Choose apples, pears, cranberries, figs and plums for desserts,” Ms. Castro said. “Select squash, carrots, cauliflower, sweet potatoes and brussels sprouts for hearty side dishes. Seasonal produce can keep your Thanksgiving menu fresh and budget-friendly.”

Although some prices remain high, financial analysts say cooling inflation means Thanksgiving will be even more affordable in 2025 as the U.S. market adjusts better to post-pandemic needs.

The farm bureau noted that favorable weather conditions and price volatility in crops also contributed to cheaper ingredients this year, including a 14% drop in whole milk costs.

According to the latest federal data released this month, food prices are rising more slowly than inflation. While the consumer price index has risen 2.6% since last year, overall food prices are up 2.1%.

“Even without the drop in turkey prices, Thanksgiving would still be more affordable than last year,” said Ryan Young, a senior economist at the libertarian Competitive Enterprise Institute.