The Investor Movement Index® (IMXSM) dipped to 4.61 in June, down 6 percent from its May score. The IMX is TD Ameritrade’s proprietary, behavior-based index, aggregating Main Street investor positions and activity to measure what investors actually were doing and how they were positioned in the markets.
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TD Ameritrade June 2019 Investor Movement Index (Graphic: TD Ameritrade)
The reading for the four-week period ending June 28, 2019 ranks “Moderately Low” compared to historic ranges, marking a eight-month trend of below average IMX scores.
“Investor cautiousness continued, even as markets rallied in June, reaching all-time highs by midmonth,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “Yet, it’s important to look at one of the primary factors behind the rally – in this case, it is the anticipation of Fed rate cuts – which is often motivated by deeper insecurities about the economy.”
During the June IMX period, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were both up around 7 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite was the leader, up 7.4 percent. However, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased below 2 percent for the first time since November 2016 while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index decreased to the lowest point since September 2017. The market saw gains midmonth as Federal Reserve officials agreed to hold the benchmark interest rate steady. During the period, trade resolution between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinpin remained uncertain.
Despite their decreased exposure to equities, retail investors at TD Ameritrade found some popular names to buy during the June IMX period, including:
- Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
- Beyond Meat Inc. (BYND)
- Canopy Growth Corp. (CGC)
- Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
TD Ameritrade clients also net sold many popular names during the period, including:
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- General Electric Inc. (GE)
- Netflix Inc. (NFLX)
- Snapchat Inc. (SNAP)
Millennial Buys & Sells
During the June IMX period, millennials with TD Ameritrade accounts favored many of the same stocks as the overall population, including Tesla (TSLA), Canopy Growth Corp. (CGC) and Beyond Meat (BYND). Unlike the total population, millennials were net buyers of Uber (UBER) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Millennials were also net sellers of several of the same companies as the general population, including Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX) and Snapchat (SNAP). Unlike the total population, they were also net sellers of Sirius (SIRI).
About the IMX
The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client base of more than 11 million funded accounts, which includes all accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly IMX.
For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including historical IMX data going back to January 2010; to view the full report from June 2019; or to sign up for future IMX news alerts, please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX. Additionally, TD Ameritrade clients can chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in either the thinkorswim® or TD Ameritrade Mobile Trader platforms.
Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold. All investments involve risk including the possible loss of principal. Please consider all risks and objectives before investing.
Past performance of a security, strategy, or index is no guarantee of future results or investment success.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.
The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for TD Ameritrade.
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About TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
TD Ameritrade provides investing services and education to more than 11 million client accounts totaling approximately $1.3 trillion in assets, and custodial services to more than 7,000 registered investment advisors. We are a leader in U.S. retail trading, executing an average of approximately 850,000 trades per day for our clients, more than a quarter of which come from mobile devices. We have a proud history of innovation, dating back to our start in 1975, and today our team of 10,000-strong is committed to carrying it forward. Together, we are leveraging the latest in cutting edge technologies and one-on-one client care to transform lives, and investing, for the better. Learn more by visiting TD Ameritrade’s newsroom at www.amtd.com, or read our stories at Fresh Accounts.
Source: TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation