Study Findings on Risk Management Are Outlined in Reports from Florida International University (Likelihood estimation of secondary crashes using…

Study Findings on Risk Management Are Outlined in Reports from Florida International University (Likelihood estimation of secondary crashes using Bayesian complementary log-log model)

By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Weekly News -- Investigators discuss new findings in Risk Management. According to news reporting out of Miami, Florida, by VerticalNews editors, research stated, "Secondary crashes (SCs) occur within the spatial and temporal impact range of a primary incident. They are nonrecurring events and are major contributors to increased traffic delay, and reduced safety, particularly in urban areas."

Funders for this research include Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT), Florida International University (FIU), University of North Florida (UNF).

Our news journalists obtained a quote from the research from Florida International University, "However, the limited knowledge on the nature of SCs has largely impeded their mitigation strategies. The primary objective of this study was to develop a reliable SC risk prediction model using real-time traffic flow conditions. The study data were collected on a 35-mile I-95 freeway section for three years in Jacksonville, Florida. SCs were identified based on travel speed data archived by the Bluetooth detectors. Bayesian random effect complementary log-log model was used to link the probability of SCs with real-time traffic flow characteristics, primary incident characteristics, environmental conditions, and geometric characteristics. Random forests technique was used to select the important variables. The results indicated that the following variables significantly affect the likelihood of SCs: average occupancy, incident severity, percent of lanes closed, incident type, incident clearance duration, incident impact duration, and incident occurrence time."

According to the news editors, the research concluded: "The study results have the potential to proactively prevent SCs."

For more information on this research see: Likelihood estimation of secondary crashes using Bayesian complementary log-log model. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2018;119():58-67. Accident Analysis and Prevention can be contacted at: Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England. (Elsevier - www.elsevier.com; Accident Analysis and Prevention - www.journals.elsevier.com/accident-analysis-and-prevention/)

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting A.E. Kitali, Florida International University, Dept. of Civil & Environm Engn, Miami, FL 33174, United States. Additional authors for this research include P. Alluri, T. Sando, H. Haule, E. Kidando and R. Lentz.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.07.003. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

Keywords for this news article include: Miami, Florida, United States, North and Central America, Risk Management, Florida International University.

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