Strong Sellers’ Market Sends Defect, Fraud and Misrepresentation Risk Higher for Fourth Straight Month, According to First American Loan Application Defect Index
—Loan defect risk is concentrating in attractive local markets where housing demand is the strongest, primarily in the South, says Chief Economist
- The frequency of defects, fraudulence and misrepresentation in the information submitted in mortgage loan applications increased 3.9 percent in
March 2017 as compared with the previous month. - Compared to
March 2016 , the Defect Index increased by 3.9 percent. - The Defect Index is down 22.5 percent from the high point of risk in
October 2013 . - The Defect Index for refinance transactions increased 3.3 percent month-over-month, and is 4.5 percent lower than a year ago.
- The Defect Index for purchase transactions increased 2.4 percent compared to last month, and is up 3.6 percent compared to a year ago.
Chief Economist Analysis: Defect Risk Shifts South for Spring
“This month, the Loan Application Defect Index continued to trend upward as the risk on refinance and purchase transactions both increased compared to a month ago,” said
“We are experiencing one of the strongest sellers’ markets in recent memory and the ‘speed-buying’ that is required for home buyers to make an offer and win a bid for homes they like may be contributing to the increase in defect, misrepresentation and fraud risk that we are observing,” said Fleming.
“Defect, fraud and misrepresentation risk is increasingly becoming a regional phenomenon. The risk is concentrating in attractive local markets where housing demand is the strongest, primarily in the South,” said Fleming. “The South may not be so charming anymore if you manage loan fraud and misrepresentation risk.”
Additional Quotes from Chief Economist
- “The riskiest markets are increasingly in the South, with elevated risk stretching from
Texas toFlorida and up to West Virginia.” - “The five markets with the highest defect risk in the country are all based in the South:
McAllen, Texas ;Charleston, S.C. ;Tampa, Fla. ;Knoxville, Tenn. ; andBaton Rouge , La.” - “The South is also one of the strongest regions of the country for housing demand. According to the most recent
National Association of Realtors (NAR) existing-home sales release, the rate of existing-home sales increased 8.5 percent in March compared to a year ago. Additionally, the median price in the South was up 8.6 percent compared to a year ago.” - “Conversely, the Northeast has remained consistently low risk. The markets with the lowest level of defect, fraud and misrepresentation risk in the country are
Scranton, Pa. ;Toledo, Ohio ;Rochester, N.Y. ;Albany, N.Y. ; andHarrisburg , Pa.”
- The five states with the greatest year-over-year increase in defect frequency are:
Wyoming (+42.4 percent),South Dakota (+37.5 percent),North Dakota (+35.8 percent),Mississippi (+28.6 percent) andWest Virginia (+26.8 percent). - The five states with the greatest year-over-year decrease in defect frequency are:
Connecticut (-8.9 percent),Michigan (-6.1 percent),Oklahoma (-3.3 percent),Delaware (-3.0 percent) andWashington (-2.5 percent).
- Among the largest 50 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs), the five markets with the greatest year-over-year increase in defect frequency are:
Raleigh, N.C. (+28.8 percent);New Orleans (+12.7 percent);Tampa, Fla. (+11.8 percent);Jacksonville, Fla. (+10.8 percent); andMinneapolis (+10.7 percent). - Among the largest 50 CBSAs, the five markets with the greatest year-over-year decrease in defect frequency are:
Milwaukee (-12.7 percent);Detroit (-12.6 percent);Oklahoma City (-9.2 percent);Louisville /Jefferson, Ky. (-8.8 percent); andHartford, Conn. (-8.2 percent).
Next Release
The next release of the First American Loan Application Defect Index will be posted the week of
Methodology
The methodology statement for the First American Loan Application Defect Index is available at http://www.firstam.com/economics/defect-index.
Disclaimer
Opinions, estimates, forecasts and other views contained in this page are those of First American’s Chief Economist, do not necessarily represent the views of First American or its management, should not be construed as indicating First American’s business prospects or expected results, and are subject to change without notice. Although the First American Economics team attempts to provide reliable, useful information, it does not guarantee that the information is accurate, current or suitable for any particular purpose. © 2017 by First American. Information from this page may be used with proper attribution.
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