Shutdown hits home: With health care tax credits set to expire, pain sets in for NH business

Last week, W.H. Bagshaw, a metal parts manufacturer based in Hudson, learned that its health insurance policies with Anthem would increase approximately 38% in 2026. Anthem specifically cited the expiration of Affordable Care Act tax credits at the center of the current federal government shutdown.

The notice from the company's insurance broker, which the company provided to the Bulletin, said Anthem is raising rates due to the "elimination of individual subsidies, and (a) resulting decline in individual market membership" as well as "higher-than-expected medical and pharmacy utilization."

The ACA Enhanced Premium Tax Credits — which were established in 2021 as an upgrade to tax credits that were already available — subsidize health care for Americans who buy their coverage through the ACA Marketplace on HealthCare.gov.

Nearly 50,000 people in New Hampshire used the credits in 2025, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. They're set to expire in December, and when they do, premiums are expected to skyrocket.

New Futures, a New Hampshire-based health policy advocacy organization, estimates that if and when the subsidies expire, a single person in their mid-40s in New Hampshire who earns $31,300 annually could see their total annual premiums increase $1,344.

The effects vary greatly based on income and demographic factors. For a New Hampshire couple in their 60s earning $90,000 annually, premiums could increase $14,712, per the same analysis.

Senate Democrats, seeking to avoid that fate, elevated the issue during budget negotiations. They refused to vote for any spending plan that didn't extend the tax credits. Republicans, who hold slim majorities in both the House and Senate, never acceded, and without a federal spending plan in place on Oct. 1, the federal government shut down.

Some experts have warned the expiration could impact more than just those using the subsidies. As their premiums skyrocket, many healthy people who use the credits will likely forgo coverage. That in turn affects insurance companies' bottom lines, and so rates will go up for customers like W.H. Bagshaw and other employers.

W.H. Bagshaw is owned and operated by Aaron and Adria Bagshaw. The company, which was founded by Aaron's great-great-grandfather, employs 32 full-time employees and is attempting to hire more. The manufacturing company, which creates small, precise metal parts used in aerospace and medical technology, recently relocated from Nashua into an upgraded facility in Hudson.

Adria Bagshaw said the company spends more on their employees' health care than on raw materials. She said that's "partly by business design."

"We've made a values-based decision here to pay 100% of the premium for our employees, so our employees have free health insurance," she said. "It's very generous, but it's really, really important to us that we cover them. The easy answer is, everyone's telling us, 'Just push the cost on to your employees.' and I'm like, 'That doesn't work.' … If you put 20% of the cost on the employee, that's taking money out of their pocket. It's like reducing their pay."

She said they're meeting with their broker next week and hope to find a creative solution.

U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, who visited W.H. Bagshaw Thursday, said he's heard from a lot of businesses and constituents that their premiums are rising. Pappas, whose family owns the Puritan restaurant in Manchester, evoked his own health insurance experiences as an employer.

"It was customary that you would sort of see a 10%, 12%, 15% increase on an annual basis," Pappas said. "And, you know, you just sort of got used to that, and would have to factor that into your planning, but we never saw anything like 40% — that's crazy."

He argued Republicans' decision not to renew the tax credits has "real-world consequences."

"By not renewing the tax credits for ACA plans, it's having a ripple effect across markets," he said. "And so whether you have an individual policy or are on a group plan, insurance costs are going to go up. You're going to have people dropping their insurance. That's going to impact all of us."

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