Should a presidential candidate’s age matter? An aging expert says no, but he needs more information.
Even the oldest in the throng of current presidential candidates has close to a 50-50 chance of surviving a first term, and most have a good shot at living through a second, a
After running the numbers,
Still, he said, he had to rely on population averages, which “should not be interpreted as destiny.” The lack of publicly available health information about candidates makes it impossible to know whether any have hidden, potentially lethal, medical conditions, or early cognitive problems that would alter predictions. And, of course, accidents and infections can change the trajectory for anyone.
Olshansky released his new white paper, which was published by the
» READ MORE: The Democrats’ debate in
More detailed information, he said, would help voters evaluate whether candidates are physically and mentally strong enough to be president for four years. It might reveal which of the older candidates are “super agers,” people who live longer and stay mentally sharp longer than their peers. If nothing else, the information might shine a brighter light on vice presidential candidates.
When
Olshansky said he decided to write the paper after a reporter from the Washington Examiner told him that
Scheiner, who is 80, was not satisfied with Olshansky’s results. Whether a candidate will survive, he said, is not the important question. “That’s not my interest,” he said.
Scheiner, who said he was Obama’s physician for 22 years, argues that we shouldn’t just accept candidates’ declarations that they’re as healthy as can be. He thinks that all of them, regardless of age, should take neuropsychological tests, and that testing should be required annually for presidents. He said he’d feel more comfortable voting for an older candidate if he had more detailed medical information about him or her.
Olshansky’s use of population averages means his lifespan estimates are conservative. Presidential candidates tend to be well-educated and relatively wealthy, factors that lead to longer-than-average lives. In a study published in the
He used
All of the candidates except Gravel have a 76 percent or greater chance of living through a first term. The candidates who are currently below age 60 have a more than 95 percent chance of living that long. Trump’s chance of surviving a second term is 84. 8 percent. If they managed to live long enough to begin a second term, Sanders and Biden would likely each have about seven years of life left while Warren would have 12.5.
Olshansky, 65, pointed out that the “grueling process” of running for president is itself a kind of test of aging, one that most people could not pass.
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