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SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC – 10-Q – MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS.
Edgar Glimpses
Forward-Looking Statements The terms "Company," "we," "us," and "our" refer toSelective Insurance Group, Inc. (the "Parent"), and its subsidiaries, except as expressly indicated or the context otherwise requires. Certain statements in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, including information incorporated by reference, are "forward-looking statements" as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ("PSLRA"). The PSLRA provides a safe harbor under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for forward-looking statements. These statements relate to our intentions, beliefs, projections, estimations, or forecasts of future events and financial performance. They involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause our or industry actual results, activity levels, or performance to materially differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. In some cases, forward-looking statements include the words "may," "will," "could," "would," "should," "expect," "plan," "anticipate," "target," "project," "intend," "believe," "estimate," "predict," "potential," "pro forma," "seek," "likely," "continue," or comparable terms. Our forward-looking statements are only predictions, and we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove correct. We undertake no obligation, other than as federal securities laws may require, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements for any reason. Factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from what we project, forecast, or estimate in forward-looking statements are discussed in further detail in Item 1A. "Risk Factors." in Part II. "Other Information" of this Form 10-Q. These risk factors may not be exhaustive. We operate in a constantly changing business environment, and new risk factors may emerge anytime. We can neither predict these new risk factors nor assess their impact, if any, on our businesses or the extent any factor or combination of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements. Given these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events we discuss in this report might not occur.
Introduction
We classify our business into four reportable segments:
•Standard Commercial Lines;
•Standard Personal Lines;
•Excess and Surplus Lines ("E&S Lines"); and
•Investments.
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For more details about these segments, refer to Note 9. "Segment Information" in
Item 1. "Financial Statements." of this Form 10-Q and Note 12. "Segment
Information" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our
Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 ("2022 Annual
Report").
We write our Standard Commercial and Standard Personal Lines products and
services through nine of our insurance subsidiaries, some of which participate
in the federal government's National Flood Insurance Program's ("NFIP") Write
Your Own Program. We write our E&S products through another subsidiary, Mesa
Underwriters Specialty Insurance Company , a nationally-authorized non-admitted
platform for customers who generally cannot obtain coverage in the standard
marketplace. Collectively, we refer to our ten insurance subsidiaries as the
"Insurance Subsidiaries."
The following is Management's Discussion and Analysis ("MD&A") of the
consolidated results of operations and financial condition, as well as known
trends and uncertainties, that may have a material impact in future periods.
Investors should read the MD&A in conjunction with Item 1. "Financial
Statements." of this Form 10-Q and the consolidated financial statements in our
2022 Annual Report filed with the United States ("U.S.") Securities and Exchange
Commission .
In the MD&A, we will discuss and analyze the following:
•Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates; •Financial Highlights of Results for the first quarters endedMarch 31, 2023 ("First Quarter 2023") andMarch 31, 2022 ("First Quarter 2022"); •Results of Operations and Related Information by Segment; •Federal Income Taxes; •Liquidity and Capital Resources; and •Ratings. Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates Our unaudited interim consolidated financial statements include amounts for which we have made informed estimates and judgments for transactions not yet completed. Such estimates and judgments affect the reported amounts in the consolidated financial statements. As outlined in our 2022 Annual Report, those estimates and judgments most critical to the preparation of the consolidated financial statements involved the following: (i) reserves for loss and loss expense; (ii) investment valuation and the allowance for credit losses on available-for-sale ("AFS") fixed income securities; and (iii) reinsurance. These estimates and judgments require the use of assumptions about highly uncertain matters, making them subject to change as facts and circumstances develop. If different estimates and judgments had been applied, materially different amounts might have been reported in the financial statements. For additional information regarding our critical accounting policies and estimates, refer to pages 37 through 45 of our 2022 Annual Report. 23
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Financial Highlights of Results for First Quarter 2023 and First Quarter 20221
Quarter ended March 31, Change
($ and shares in thousands, except per share amounts) 2023 2022 % or Points
Financial Data:
Revenues $ 999,820 846,062 18 %
After-tax net investment income 73,052 58,515 25
After-tax underwriting income 30,955 44,105 (30)
Net income before federal income tax 114,759 69,890 64
Net income 92,574 56,330 64
Net income available to common stockholders 90,274 54,030 67
Key Metrics:
Combined ratio 95.7 % 93.1 2.6 pts
Invested assets per dollar of common stockholders' equity $ 3.25 3.02 8 %
Annualized after-tax yield on investment portfolio 3.7 % 3.0 0.7 pts
Return on common equity ("ROE") 15.1 8.1 7.0
Net premiums written ("NPW") to statutory surplus ratio 1.46 x 1.36 0.10
Per Common Share Amounts:
Diluted net income per share $ 1.48 0.89 66 %
Book value per share 40.82 42.73 (4)
Dividends declared per share to common stockholders 0.30 0.28 7
Non-GAAP Information:
Non-GAAP operating income2 $ 87,632 85,908 2 %
Non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share2 1.44 1.41 2
Non-GAAP operating ROE2 14.6 % 12.8 1.8 pts
Adjusted book value per common share2 $ 46.61 43.80 6 %
1Refer to the Glossary of Terms attached to our 2022 Annual Report as Exhibit
99.1 for definitions of terms used of this Form 10-Q.
2Non-GAAP operating income, non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share,
and non-GAAP operating ROE are measures comparable to net income available to
common stockholders, net income available to common stockholders per diluted
common share, and ROE, respectively, but exclude after-tax net realized and
unrealized gains and losses on investments included in net income. Adjusted book
value per common share is a measure comparable to book value per common share,
but excludes total after-tax unrealized gains and losses on investments included
in accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income. These non-GAAP measures are
important financial measures used by us, analysts, and investors because the
timing of realized and unrealized investment gains and losses on securities in
any given period is largely discretionary. In addition, net realized and
unrealized investment gains and losses on investments could distort the analysis
of trends.
Reconciliations of our GAAP to non-GAAP measures are provided in the tables
below:
Reconciliation of net income available to common stockholders Quarter ended March 31, to non-GAAP operating income ($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Net income available to common stockholders$ 90,274 54,030 Net realized and unrealized investment (gains) losses included in net income, before tax (3,344) 40,352 Tax on reconciling items 702 (8,474) Non-GAAP operating income$ 87,632 85,908 Reconciliation of net income available to common stockholders
Quarter ended
per diluted common share to non-GAAP operating income per
diluted common share
2023 2022
Net income available to common stockholders per diluted common
share
$ 1.48 0.89
Net realized and unrealized investment (gains) losses included
in net income, before tax
(0.05) 0.66 Tax on reconciling items 0.01 (0.14) Non-GAAP operating income per diluted common share$ 1.44 1.41 Reconciliation of ROE to non-GAAP operating ROE
Quarter ended
2023 2022 ROE 15.1 % 8.1
Net realized and unrealized investment (gains) losses included
in net income, before tax
(0.6) 6.0
Tax on reconciling items 0.1 (1.3)
Non-GAAP operating ROE 14.6 % 12.8
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Reconciliation of book value per common share to adjusted book Quarter ended March 31,
value per common share
2023 2022
Book value per common share $ 40.82 42.73
Total unrealized investment (gains) losses included in
accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), before tax
7.32 1.35 Tax on reconciling items (1.53) (0.28) Adjusted book value per common share$ 46.61 43.80
The components of our ROE and non-GAAP operating ROE are as follows:
ROE and non-GAAP operating ROE Components
Quarter ended
2023 2022 Change Points
Standard Commercial Lines Segment 5.1 % 5.0 0.1
Standard Personal Lines Segment (1.7) 0.8 (2.5)
E&S Lines Segment 1.8 0.8 1.0
Total insurance operations 5.2 6.6 (1.4)
Investment income 12.2 8.7 3.5
Net realized and unrealized investment gains (losses) 0.5 (4.7) 5.2
Total investments segment 12.7 4.0 8.7
Other (2.8) (2.5) (0.3)
ROE 15.1 8.1 7.0
Net realized and unrealized investment (gains)
losses, after tax (0.5) 4.7 (5.2)
Non-GAAP operating ROE 14.6 12.8 1.8
Our First Quarter 2023 non-GAAP operating ROE of 14.6% was above our full-year
2023 target non-GAAP operating ROE of 12% and our First Quarter 2022 non-GAAP
operating ROE of 12.8%. The increase compared to First Quarter 2022 was
primarily driven by a $14.5 million , or 3.5-point, increase in after-tax net
investment income. This increase resulted from greater income earned on our
fixed income securities portfolio due to higher book yields received from the
investment of operating and investing cash flows over the past year in the
higher interest rate environment. This increase was offset by a $13.2 million ,
or 1.4-point, reduction in after-tax underwriting income, resulting from (i) an
increase in net catastrophe losses in First Quarter 2023 compared to First
Quarter 2022, and (ii) lower favorable prior year casualty reserve development
in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022, partially offset by a
decrease in non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses in First Quarter
2023.
In addition, net realized and unrealized investment gains in First Quarter 2023
compared to net realized and unrealized investment losses in First Quarter 2022
drove the 5.2-point increase in our ROE. The decrease in net realized and
unrealized investment losses was primarily due to lower credit loss expense on
our AFS fixed income securities portfolio in First Quarter 2023 resulting from a
decline in benchmark U.S. Treasury rates.
Outlook
We entered 2023 well positioned to navigate the on-going challenges of elevated inflation, increased interest rates, and financial market volatility. Our overall First Quarter 2023 financial results were strong with 12% growth in NPW and a 14.6% non-GAAP operating ROE, which was above our full-year target of 12%.
We continue to focus on several foundational areas to position us for ongoing
success:
•Delivering on our strategy for continued disciplined and profitable growth by: •Achieving renewal pure price increases that reflect our current profitability and forward loss trend expectations; •Continuing to expand our Standard Commercial Lines market share by (i) increasing our share towards our 12% target of our agents' premiums, (ii) strategically appointing new agents, and (iii) maximizing new business growth in the small business market through utilization of our enhanced small business platform; •Expanding our geographic footprint. In 2022, we began writing Standard Commercial Lines business inVermont ,Alabama , andIdaho . We plan to expand our Standard Commercial Lines footprint into other states over time; •Increasing customer retention by delivering a superior omnichannel experience and offering value-added technologies and services; 25 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table of Contents •Shifting our Standard Personal Lines products and services towards customers in the mass affluent market, where we believe we can be more competitive with the strong coverage and servicing capabilities that we offer; and •Deploying our new underwriting platform in our E&S segment and improving agents' ease of interactions with us. •Continuing to build on a culture centered on the values of diversity, equity, and inclusion that fosters innovation, idea generation, and developing a group of specially trained leaders who can guide us successfully into the future.
For 2023, our full-year expectations remain unchanged and are as follows:
•A GAAP combined ratio of 96.5%, including net catastrophe losses of 4.5 points. Our combined ratio estimate assumes no additional prior year casualty reserve development; •After-tax net investment income of$300 million that includes after-tax net investment income from our alternative investments of$30 million ; •An overall effective tax rate of approximately 21.0%, which assumes an effective tax rate of 20.0% for net investment income and 21.0% for all other items; and •Weighted average shares of 61 million on a fully diluted basis, which assumes no additional share repurchases we may make under our authorization.
Results of Operations and Related Information by Segment
Insurance Operations
The following table provides quantitative information for analyzing the combined
ratio:
All Lines Quarter ended March 31,
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Change % or Points
Insurance Operations Results:
Net premiums written ("NPW") $ 999,768 889,798 12 %
Net premiums earned ("NPE") 902,336 812,283 11
Less:
Loss and loss expense incurred 567,438 494,236 15 Net underwriting expenses incurred 293,943 260,639 13 Dividends to policyholders 1,772 1,579 12 Underwriting income$ 39,183 55,829 (30) % Combined Ratios: Loss and loss expense ratio 62.9 % 60.8 2.1 pts Underwriting expense ratio 32.6 32.1 0.5 Dividends to policyholders ratio 0.2 0.2 - Combined ratio 95.7 93.1 2.6
The NPW growth of 12% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022
reflected (i) overall renewal pure price increases, and (ii) higher direct new
business, as shown in the following table:
Quarter ended March 31,
($ in millions) 2023 2022
Direct new business premiums $ 216.9 177.2
Renewal pure price increases on NPW 6.6 %
4.6
Our NPW growth in First Quarter 2023 also benefited from strong retention and
exposure growth.
The increase in NPE in First Quarter 2023 compared to 2022 resulted from the
same impacts to NPW described above.
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Loss and Loss Expenses
The loss and loss expense ratio increased 2.1 points in First Quarter 2023
compared to First Quarter 2022, primarily due to the following:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and
Loss and Loss Impact on Loss Impact on
Expense Loss and Loss Expense Loss and Loss
($ in millions) Incurred Expense Ratio Incurred Expense Ratio Change in Ratio
Net catastrophe losses $ 55.3 6.1 pts $ 20.6 2.5 pts 3.6
pts
(Favorable) prior year casualty reserve development (13.0) (1.4) (20.0) (2.5) 1.1 Non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses 148.2 16.4 150.4 18.5 (2.1) Total$ 190.5 21.1$ 151.0 18.5 2.6 Net catastrophe losses in First Quarter 2023 included$28.7 million related to two wind and thunderstorm events inMarch 2023 that impacted Eastern and Midwestern states in our footprint, and$10.1 million related to a winter storm inFebruary 2023 that impacted Northeastern states in our footprint.
Details of the prior year casualty reserve development were as follows:
(Favorable)/Unfavorable Prior Year Casualty Reserve Development Quarter ended March 31, ($ in millions) 2023 2022 General liability $ - (5.0) Workers compensation (10.0) (10.0) Bonds - (5.0) Total Standard Commercial Lines (10.0) (20.0) Homeowners - - Personal automobile 2.0 - Total Standard Personal Lines 2.0 - E&S (5.0) - Total (favorable) prior year casualty reserve development$ (13.0) (20.0) (Favorable) impact on loss ratio (1.4) pts (2.5)
For additional qualitative discussion on prior year casualty reserve development
and non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses, refer to the insurance
segment sections below.
Underwriting Expenses
The underwriting expense ratio increased 0.5 points in First Quarter 2023
compared to First Quarter 2022, of which approximately half was driven by higher
reinsurance costs and its associated impact on our NPE in First Quarter 2023
compared to First Quarter 2022. The remainder of the increase was related to our
participation in the NFIP program as benefits from our participation in this
program are becoming less significant relative to the growth in the overall
premium.
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Standard Commercial Lines Segment
Quarter ended March 31, Change
% or
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Points
Insurance Segments Results:
NPW $ 813,316 737,639 10 %
NPE 731,615 661,469 11
Less:
Loss and loss expense incurred 447,326 399,474 12
Net underwriting expenses incurred 243,596 218,032 12
Dividends to policyholders 1,772 1,579 12
Underwriting income 38,921 42,384 (8)
Combined Ratios:
Loss and loss expense ratio 61.2 % 60.4 0.8 pts
Underwriting expense ratio 33.3 33.0 0.3
Dividends to policyholders ratio 0.2 0.2 -
Combined ratio 94.7 93.6 1.1
NPW growth of 10% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022 reflected
(i) renewal pure price increases, (ii) higher direct new business, and (iii)
strong retention as shown in the table below. In addition, NPW growth benefited
from strong exposure growth.
Quarter ended March 31,
($ in millions) 2023 2022
Direct new business premiums $ 147.7 128.4
Retention 86 % 87
Renewal pure price increases on NPW 7.0
4.8
The increase in NPE in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022
resulted from the same impacts to NPW described above.
The loss and loss expense ratio increased 0.8 points in First Quarter 2023
compared to First Quarter 2022, primarily driven by the following:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and
Loss and Loss Impact on Loss Impact on
Expense Loss and Loss Expense Loss and Loss
($ in millions) Incurred Expense Ratio Incurred Expense Ratio Change in Ratio
Net catastrophe losses $ 35.1 4.8 pts $ 14.9 2.3 2.5
pts
Non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses 105.5 14.4 115.7 17.5 (3.1) (Favorable) prior year casualty reserve development (10.0) (1.4) (20.0) (3.0) 1.6 Total 130.6 17.8 110.6 16.8 1.0 Net catastrophe losses in First Quarter 2023 included$14.7 million related to two wind and thunderstorm events inMarch 2023 that impacted Eastern and Midwestern states in our footprint, and$9.3 million related to a winter storm inFebruary 2023 that impacted Northeastern states in our footprint. For qualitative discussion on non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses, refer to the commercial property line of business section below. The favorable prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2023 was was primarily due to improved loss severities in accident years 2020 and prior in our workers compensation line of business. Favorable prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2022 included (i)$10.0 million in our workers compensation line of business primarily due to improved loss severities in accident years 2019 and prior, (ii)$5.0 million in our general liability line of business primarily attributable to improved loss severities in accident years 2019 and prior, and (iii)$5.0 million in our bonds line of business. The underwriting expense ratio increased 0.3 points in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022, primarily driven by higher reinsurance costs and its associated impact on our NPE in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022. 28
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The following is a discussion of our most significant Standard Commercial Lines
of business:
General Liability
Quarter ended March 31, Change
% or
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Points1
NPW $ 272,126 244,118 11 %
Direct new business 44,731 37,883 n/a
Retention 86 % 87 n/a
Renewal pure price increases 5.5 4.0 n/a
NPE $ 243,349 216,325 12 %
Underwriting income 27,126 28,817 (6)
Combined ratio 88.9 % 86.7 2.2 pts
% of total Standard Commercial Lines NPW 33 33
1n/a: not applicable.
NPW growth of 11% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022 benefited
from exposure growth, strong retention, renewal pure price increases, and higher
direct new business.
The combined ratio increased 2.2 points in First Quarter 2023 compared to First
Quarter 2022, primarily driven by less favorable prior year casualty reserve
development, as follows:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and Loss and Loss
Loss Expense Impact on Expense Impact on
($ in millions) Incurred Combined Ratio Incurred Combined Ratio Change in Ratio
(Favorable) prior year casualty
reserve development $ - - pts $ (5.0) (2.3) 2.3 pts
The favorable prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2022 was
primarily attributable to improved loss severities in accident years 2019 and
prior.
Commercial Automobile
Quarter ended March 31, Change
% or
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Points1
NPW $ 240,183 212,595 13 %
Direct new business 36,976 31,413 n/a
Retention 86 % 87 n/a
Renewal pure price increases 10.0 7.4 n/a
NPE $ 217,371 193,830 12 %
Underwriting (loss) income (11,741) (10,918) 8
Combined ratio 105.4 % 105.6 (0.2) pts
% of total Standard Commercial Lines NPW 30 29
1n/a: not applicable.
NPW growth of 13% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022 benefited
from renewal pure price increases, higher direct new business, and strong
retention. NPW also benefited from 5% growth of in-force vehicle counts as of
March 31, 2023 , compared to March 31, 2022 .
The combined ratio decreased 0.2 points in First Quarter 2023 compared to First
Quarter 2022, primarily driven by the following:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and Loss Loss and Loss
Expense Impact on Expense Impact on
($ in millions) Incurred Combined Ratio Incurred Combined Ratio Change in Ratio
Net catastrophe losses $ 0.3 0.1 pts $ 0.3 0.2 (0.1) pts
Non-catastrophe property loss and loss
expenses 46.7 21.5 43.0 22.2 (0.7)
Total $ 47.0 21.6 $ 43.3 22.4 (0.8)
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In addition, the combined ratio was impacted by a 0.3-point increase in current
year casualty loss costs in First Quarter 2023, compared to First Quarter 2022.
The increase in current year casualty loss costs was primarily due to increases
in claim severities.
Commercial Property
Quarter ended March 31, Change
% or
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Points1
NPW $ 151,604 130,905 16 %
Direct new business 34,757 27,817 n/a
Retention 85 % 86 n/a
Renewal pure price increases 9.5 6.2 n/a
NPE $ 135,292 120,062 13 %
Underwriting income 10,078 176 NM
Combined ratio 92.6 % 99.9 (7.3) pts
% of total Standard Commercial Lines NPW 19 18
1n/a: not applicable; NM - Not Meaningful.
NPW growth of 16% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022 benefited from renewal pure price increases, strong retention, exposure growth, and higher direct new business.
The combined ratio decreased 7.3 points in First Quarter 2023 compared to First
Quarter 2022, primarily driven by the following:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and Loss
Expense Impact on Loss and Loss Impact on
($ in millions) Incurred Combined Ratio Expense Incurred Combined Ratio Change in Ratio
Net catastrophe losses $ 27.7 20.5 pts 12.9 10.8 9.7 pts
Non-catastrophe property loss and loss
expenses 46.5 34.4 63.1 52.5 (18.1)
Total $ 74.2 54.9 76.0 63.3 (8.4)
Compared to last year, First Quarter 2023 experienced lower non-catastrophe
property loss and loss expense, which continues to reflect the variability from
period to period that is normally associated with the commercial property line
of business. For example, we experienced fewer large fire losses and claims
related to water damage and freezing. In addition, our initiatives to execute on
(i) price increases, and (ii) targeted underwriting actions to improve our
insurance to value ratios, are both beginning to take effect. First Quarter 2023
also experienced elevated net catastrophe losses as discussed in the "Insurance
Operations" section above.
Workers Compensation
Quarter ended March 31, Change
% or
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Points1
NPW $ 93,432 97,459 (4) %
Direct new business 17,620 16,946 n/a
Retention 84 % 87 n/a
Renewal pure price increases (1.1) (1.1) n/a
NPE $ 84,184 84,680 (1) %
Underwriting income 14,586 15,905 (8)
Combined ratio 82.7 % 81.2 1.5 pts
% of total Standard Commercial Lines NPW 11 13
1n/a: not applicable.
NPW decreased 4% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022, primarily
due to renewal pure price decreases of 1.1% and lower retention.
The combined ratio increased 1.5 points in First Quarter 2023 compared to First
Quarter 2022, primarily driven by an increase in the expense ratio primarily
related to an increase in compensation to our distribution partners.
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The increase in the combined ratio was slightly offset by favorable prior year
casualty reserve development as follows:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and Loss Loss and Loss
Expense Impact on Expense Impact on
($ in millions) Incurred Combined Ratio Incurred Combined Ratio Change in Ratio
(Favorable) prior year casualty
reserve development $ (10.0) (11.9) pts $ (10.0) (11.8) (0.1) pts
The favorable prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2023 was
primarily due to improved loss severities in accident years 2020 and prior. The
favorable prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2022 was
primarily due to improved loss severities in accident years 2019 and prior.
Standard Personal Lines Segment
Quarter ended March 31, Change
% or
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Points
Insurance Segments Results:
NPW $ 85,278 65,057 31 %
NPE 81,870 72,642 13
Less:
Loss and loss expense incurred 73,168
48,547 51
Net underwriting expenses incurred 21,775 17,575 24
Underwriting income (loss) (13,073) 6,520 (301)
Combined Ratios:
Loss and loss expense ratio 89.4 % 66.8 22.6 pts
Underwriting expense ratio 26.6 24.2 2.4
Combined ratio 116.0 91.0 25.0
NPW increased 31% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022, due to
(i) higher direct new business, (ii) stronger retention, (iii) renewal pure
price increases, (iv) higher homeowner coverage amounts due to inflation, and
(v) higher average policy sizes from our mass affluent market strategy. In the
third quarter of 2021, we transitioned our personal lines strategy to target
customers in the mass affluent market where we believe our strong coverage and
servicing capabilities will be more competitive.
Quarter ended March 31,
($ in millions) 2023
2022
Direct new business premiums1 $ 26.3
9.6
Retention 87 %
84
Renewal pure price increases on NPW 1.8
0.6
1Excludes our Flood direct premiums written, which is 100% ceded to the NFIP and
therefore, has no impact on our NPW.
The increase in NPE in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022
resulted from the same impacts to NPW described above.
The loss and loss expense ratio increased 22.6 points in First Quarter 2023
compared to First Quarter 2022, driven by the following:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and Loss Impact on Loss and Loss Impact on
Expense Loss and Loss Expense Loss and Loss Expense
($ in millions) Incurred Expense Ratio Incurred Ratio Change in Ratio
Net catastrophe losses $ 14.6 17.9 pts 4.3 6.0 11.9 pts
Non-catastrophe property loss and loss
expenses 33.8 41.3 25.6 35.2
6.1
Unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development 2.0 2.4 - - 2.4 Total$ 50.4 61.6 29.9 41.2 20.4
Net catastrophe losses in First Quarter 2023 included two large wind and
thunderstorm events in
business, resulting in
First Quarter 2023 experienced elevated non-catastrophe property loss and loss
expenses, driven by higher personal automobile
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physical damage losses. These higher losses resulted from continued greater
severities from inflationary and supply chain impacts that have increased labor
and repair costs, and the duration of claims, which impacts vehicle rental days.
The likely continuation of elevated non-catastrophe property loss and loss
expenses, coupled with renewal pure price increases below loss trend, will put
pressure on this segment's profitability in the near-term. We have and continue
to file rate increases on a state-by-state basis to mitigate these inflationary
impacts. These filed rate increases began to take effect on a written basis
during First Quarter 2023, and we expect rate filings to continue to increase
through 2023.
The unfavorable prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2023
was primarily due to increased loss severities in accident year 2022. There was
no prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2022.
The underwriting expense ratio increased 2.4 points in First Quarter 2023
compared to First Quarter 2022, primarily due to a 2.2 point impact related to
our participation in the NFIP program as benefits from our participation in this
program are becoming less significant relative to the growth in the overall
Standard Personal Lines's premium, which is being driven by our homeowners and
personal automobile business.
E&S Lines Segment
Quarter ended March 31, Change
% or
($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Points
Insurance Segments Results:
NPW $ 101,174 87,102 16 %
NPE 88,851 78,172 14
Less:
Loss and loss expense incurred 46,944 46,215 2
Net underwriting expenses incurred 28,572 25,032 14
Underwriting income (loss) 13,335 6,925 93
Combined Ratios:
Loss and loss expense ratio 52.8 % 59.1 (6.3) pts
Underwriting expense ratio 32.2 32.0 0.2
Combined ratio 85.0 91.1 (6.1)
NPW growth of 16% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022 reflected
renewal pure price increases and higher direct new business as shown in the
table below. In addition, NPW growth in First Quarter 2023 benefited from
exposure growth driven by favorable E&S Lines marketplace conditions.
Quarter ended March 31,
($ in millions) 2023 2022
Direct new business premiums $ 42.9 39.2
Renewal pure price increases on NPW 7.4 %
7.7
The increase in NPE in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022
resulted from the same impacts to NPW described above.
The loss and loss expense ratio decreased 6.3 points in First Quarter 2023
compared to First Quarter 2022, primarily driven by the following:
First Quarter 2023 First Quarter 2022
Loss and
Impact on Loss Impact on
Loss and Loss Loss and Loss Expense Loss and Loss
($ in millions) Expense Incurred Expense Ratio Incurred Expense Ratio Change in Ratio
Net catastrophe losses $ 5.6 6.3 pts $ 1.3 1.7 4.6
pts
Non-catastrophe property loss and loss expenses 8.9 10.1 9.1 11.6
(1.5)
(Favorable) prior year casualty reserve development (5.0) (5.6) - - (5.6) Total $ 9.5 10.8$ 10.4 13.3 (2.5) First Quarter 2023 experienced higher net catastrophe losses compared to First Quarter 2022, including$2.6 million related to two large wind and thunderstorm events inMarch 2023 that impacted our property line of business. The favorable prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2023 was primarily due to lower severities in accident years 2021 and prior. There was no prior year casualty reserve development in First Quarter 2022. 32
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Table of Contents
In addition, the loss and loss expense ratio was favorably impacted by a 3.7-point decrease in current year casualty loss costs in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022. Our E&S casualty lines results have improved over recent years from several underwriting and claims initiatives and strong rate increases. The decrease in current year casualty loss costs reflects the impacts of these actions.
Investments
Our investment portfolio's objectives are to maximize after-tax net investment income and generate long-term growth in book value per share by maximizing the overall total return of the portfolio by investing the premiums we receive from our insurance operations and the amounts generated through our capital management strategies, which may include debt and equity security issuances. We balance those objectives against prevailing market conditions, capital preservation considerations, and our enterprise risk-taking appetite. We maintain (i) a well-diversified portfolio across issuers, sectors, and asset classes; and (ii) a high credit quality fixed income securities portfolio with a duration and maturity profile at an acceptable risk level that provides ample liquidity. The effective duration of the fixed income securities portfolio, including short-term investments, was 4.1 years as ofMarch 31, 2023 , compared to the Insurance Subsidiaries' net loss and loss expense reserves duration of 3.1 years atDecember 31, 2022 . The effective duration is monitored and managed to maximize yield while managing interest rate risk at an acceptable level. Purchases and sales are made with the intent of maximizing investment returns in the current market environment while balancing capital preservation. Our fixed income and short-term investments represented 93% of our invested assets atMarch 31, 2023 , and 92% atDecember 31, 2022 . Our fixed income and short-term investments portfolio had a weighted average credit rating of "AA-" as ofMarch 31, 2023 andDecember 31, 2022 , with investment grade holdings representing 96% of the total portfolio at both periods.
For further details on the composition, credit quality, and various risks to
which our portfolio is subject, see Item 7A. "Quantitative and Qualitative
Disclosures About Market Risk." of our 2022 Annual Report.
Total Invested Assets ($ in thousands) March 31, 2023 December 31, 2022 Change Total invested assets$ 8,029,444 7,837,469 2 % Invested assets per dollar of common stockholders' equity 3.25 3.37 (4) Components of unrealized gains (losses) - before tax: Fixed income securities (442,961) (527,892) (16) % Equity securities (2,183) (5,431) (60) % Net unrealized gains (losses) - before tax (445,144) (533,323) (17) % Components of unrealized gains (losses) - after tax: Fixed income securities (349,940) (417,035) (16) % Equity securities (1,724) (4,290) (60) % Net unrealized gains (losses) - after tax (351,664) (421,325) (17) % Invested assets increased$192.0 million atMarch 31, 2023 , compared toDecember 31, 2022 , reflecting an$88.2 million decrease in pre-tax unrealized losses during First Quarter 2023 and operating cash flows during First Quarter 2023 that were 14% of NPW. The decrease in pre-tax unrealized losses was primarily due to a decrease in benchmarkU.S. Treasury rates. 33 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table of Contents Net Investment Income The components of net investment income earned were as follows: Quarter ended March 31, Change ($ in thousands) 2023 2022 % or Points Fixed income securities$ 80,087 53,925 49 % Commercial mortgage loans ("CMLs") 1,965 970 103 Equity securities 1,205 2,418 (50) Short-term investments 4,650 101 4,504 Alternative investments 7,768 19,128 (59) Other investments 43 177 (76) Investment expenses (4,212) (4,117) 2 Net investment income earned - before tax 91,506 72,602 26 Net investment income tax expense (18,454) (14,087) 31 Net investment income earned - after tax$ 73,052 58,515 25 Effective tax rate 20.2 % 19.4 0.8 pts Annualized after-tax yield on fixed income investments 3.8 2.6 1.2 Annualized after-tax yield on investment portfolio 3.7 3.0 0.7 Net investment income earned increased 25% in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022, driven by an increase in income earned on our fixed income securities portfolio due to higher book yields received from the investment of operating and investing cash flows over the past year in the higher interest rate environment, partially offset by lower returns on our alternative investments. Realized and Unrealized Gains and Losses When evaluating securities for sale, our general philosophy is to reduce our exposure to securities and sectors based on economic evaluations of whether the fundamentals for that security or sector have deteriorated or the timing is appropriate to opportunistically trade for other securities with better economic-return characteristics. Net realized and unrealized gains and losses for the indicated periods were as follows: Quarter ended March 31, ($ in thousands) 2023 2022 Change % Net realized gains (losses) on disposals (9,146) (11,363) (20) % Net unrealized gains (losses) on equity securities 3,248 (2,154) (251)
Net credit loss benefit (expense) on fixed income securities,
AFS
9,529 (22,052) (143)
Net credit loss benefit (expense) on fixed income securities,
held-to-maturity
- 14 (100) Net credit loss benefit (expense) on CMLs 17 - - Losses on securities for which we have the intent to sell (304) (4,797) (94) Total net realized and unrealized investment gains (losses)$ 3,344 (40,352) (108)
Net realized and unrealized investment gains in First Quarter 2023 were
primarily driven by lower credit loss expense on our AFS fixed income securities
portfolio resulting from a decline in benchmark
Federal Income Taxes
The following table provides information regarding federal income taxes and
reconciles federal income tax at the corporate rate to the effective tax rate:
Quarter ended March 31,
($ in thousands) 2023 2022
Tax at statutory rate $ 24,099 14,677
Tax-advantaged interest (720) (1,074)
Dividends received deduction (68) (106)
Executive compensation 740 258
Stock-based compensation (1,613) (731)
Other (253) 536
Federal income tax expense 22,185 13,560
Income before federal income tax, less preferred stock
dividends 112,459 67,590
Effective tax rate 19.7 % 20.1
34
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table of Contents Liquidity and Capital Resources Capital resources and liquidity reflect our ability to generate cash flows from business operations, borrow funds at competitive rates, and raise new capital to meet our operating and growth needs.
Liquidity
We manage liquidity by focusing on generating sufficient cash flows to meet the short-term and long-term cash requirements of our business operations. We adjust our liquidity requirements based on economic conditions, market conditions, and future cash flow commitments, as discussed further below. Sources of Liquidity Sources of cash for the Parent historically have consisted of dividends from the Insurance Subsidiaries, the investment portfolio held at the Parent, borrowings under third-party lines of credit, loan agreements with certain Insurance Subsidiaries, and the issuance of equity (common or preferred) and debt securities. We continue to monitor these sources, considering our short-term and long-term liquidity and capital preservation strategies. The Parent's investment portfolio includes (i) short-term investments generally maintained in "AAA" rated money market funds approved by theNational Association of Insurance Commissioners , (ii) high-quality, highly liquid government and corporate fixed income securities, (iii) equity securities, (iv) alternative investments, and (v) a cash balance. In the aggregate, Parent cash and total investments amounted to$497 million atMarch 31, 2023 , and$484 million atDecember 31, 2022 . The amount and composition of the Parent's investment portfolio may change over time based on various factors, including the amount and availability of dividends from our Insurance Subsidiaries, investment income, expenses, other Parent cash needs, such as dividends payable to stockholders, asset allocation investment decisions, inorganic growth opportunities, debt retirement, and share repurchases. Our target is for the Parent to maintain highly liquid investments of at least twice its expected annual net cash outflow needs, or$180 million . Insurance Subsidiary Dividends The Insurance Subsidiaries generate liquidity through insurance float, which is created by collecting premiums and earning investment income before paying claims. The period of float can extend over many years. Our investment portfolio consists of securities with maturity dates that continually provide a source of cash flow for claims payments in the ordinary course of business. To protect our Insurance Subsidiaries' capital, we purchase reinsurance coverage for significantly large claims or catastrophes that may occur. The Insurance Subsidiaries paid$40 million in total dividends to the Parent in First Quarter 2023. As ofDecember 31, 2022 , our allowable ordinary maximum dividend is$283 million for 2023. All Insurance Subsidiary dividends to the Parent are (i) subject to the approval and/or review of its domiciliary state insurance regulator, and (ii) generally payable only from earned statutory surplus reported in its annual statements as of the precedingDecember 31 . Although domiciliary state insurance regulators historically have approved dividends, there is no assurance they will approve future Insurance Subsidiary dividends.New Jersey corporate law also limits the maximum amount of dividends the Parent can pay our stockholders if either (i) the Parent would be unable to pay its debts as they became due in the usual course of business, or (ii) the Parent's total assets would be less than its total liabilities. The Parent's ability to pay dividends to stockholders is also impacted by (i) covenants in its credit agreement that obligate it, among other things, to maintain a minimum consolidated net worth and a maximum ratio of consolidated debt to total capitalization, and (ii) the terms of our preferred stock that prohibit dividends to be declared or paid on our common stock if dividends are not declared and paid, or made payable, on all outstanding preferred stock for the latest completed dividend period.
For additional information regarding dividend restrictions and financial
covenants, where applicable, see Note 11. "Indebtedness," Note 17. "Equity," and
Note 22. "Statutory Financial Information, Capital Requirements, and
Restrictions on Dividends and Transfers of Funds" in Item 8. "Financial
Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2022 Annual Report.
Line of Credit OnNovember 7, 2022 , the Parent entered into a Credit Agreement with the lenders named therein (the "Lenders") andWells Fargo Bank, National Association , as Administrative Agent ("Line of Credit"). Under the Line of Credit, the Lenders have agreed to provide the Parent with a$50 million revolving credit facility that can be increased to$125 million with the Lenders' consent. No borrowings were made under the Line of Credit in First Quarter 2023. The Line of Credit will mature onNovember 7, 2025 , and has a variable interest rate based on the Parent's debt ratings. We expect to continue to maintain a credit facility for liquidity purposes. For additional information regarding the Line of Credit and corresponding representations, 35 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table of Contents warranties, and covenants, refer to Note 11. "Indebtedness" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2022 Annual Report. We met all covenants under our Line of Credit as ofMarch 31, 2023 . Four of the Insurance Subsidiaries are members ofFederal Home Loan Bank ("FHLB") branches, as shown in the following table. Membership requires the ownership of branch stock and includes the right to access liquidity. AllFederal Home Loan Bank of Indianapolis ("FHLBI") andFederal Home Loan Bank of New York ("FHLBNY") borrowings are required to be secured by investments pledged as collateral. For additional information regarding collateral outstanding, refer to Note 4. "Investments" in Item 1. "Financial Statements." of this Form 10-Q. Branch Insurance Subsidiary Member FHLBISelective Insurance Company of South Carolina ("SICSC")1
FHLBNY Selective Insurance Company of America ("SICA")
1These subsidiaries are jointly referred to as the "Indiana Subsidiaries"
because they are domiciled in
The Line of Credit permits aggregate borrowings from the FHLBI and the FHLBNY up to 10% of the respective member company's admitted assets for the previous year. As SICNY is domiciled inNew York , its FHLBNY borrowings are limited byNew York insurance regulations to the lower of 5% of admitted assets for the most recently completed fiscal quarter, or 10% of admitted assets for the previous year-end. As ofMarch 31, 2023 , we had remaining capacity of$469.1 million for FHLB borrowings, with a$18.6 million additional stock purchase requirement to allow the member companies to borrow their remaining capacity amounts. Short-term Borrowings We did not make any short-term borrowings from FHLB branches during First Quarter 2023. For information on a short-term borrowing made onApril 6, 2023 , see Note 14. "Subsequent Events" in Item 1. "Financial Statements" of this Form 10-Q. Intercompany Loan Agreements The Parent has lending agreements with the Indiana Subsidiaries approved by theIndiana Department of Insurance that provide additional liquidity. Similar to the Line of Credit, these lending agreements limit the Parent's borrowings from the Indiana Subsidiaries to 10% of the admitted assets of the respectiveIndiana Subsidiary. The outstanding balance on these intercompany loans was$40.0 million as of bothMarch 31, 2023 , andDecember 31, 2022 . The remaining capacity under these intercompany loan agreements was$121.5 million as of bothMarch 31, 2023 , andDecember 31, 2022 . Capital Market Activities The Parent had no private or public stock issuances during First Quarter 2023. In addition, we had no common stock share repurchases during First Quarter 2023 under our existing share repurchase program. We had$84.2 million of remaining capacity under our share repurchase program as ofMarch 31, 2023 . For additional information on the share repurchase program, refer to Note 17. "Equity" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2022 Annual Report. Uses of Liquidity The Parent's liquidity generated from the sources discussed above is used, among other things, to pay dividends to our stockholders. Dividends on shares of the Parent's common and preferred stock are declared and paid at the discretion of the Board based on our operating results, financial condition, capital requirements, contractual restrictions, and other relevant factors. OnMay 3, 2023 , our Board declared: •A quarterly cash dividend on common stock of$0.30 per common share that is payableJune 1, 2023 , to holders of record onMay 15, 2023 ; and •A cash dividend of$287.50 per share on our 4.60% Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock, Series B (equivalent to$0.28750 per depository share) payable onJune 15, 2023 , to holders of record as ofMay 31, 2023 . Our ability to meet our interest and principal repayment obligations on our debt and our ability to continue to pay dividends to our stockholders is dependent on (i) liquidity at the Parent, (ii) the ability of the Insurance Subsidiaries to pay dividends, if necessary, and/or (iii) the availability of other sources of liquidity to the Parent. Excluding the short-term borrowing described in Note 14. "Subsequent Events" in Item 1. "Financial Statements." of this Form 10-Q, our next FHLB borrowing principal repayment is$60 million to FHLBI due onDecember 16, 2026 . Restrictions on the ability of the Insurance Subsidiaries to declare and pay dividends, without alternative liquidity options, could materially affect our ability to service debt and pay dividends on common and preferred stock. 36
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Table of Contents
Capital Resources Capital resources ensure we can pay policyholder claims, furnish the financial strength to support the business of underwriting insurance risks, and facilitate continued business growth. AtMarch 31, 2023 , we had GAAP stockholders' equity of$2.7 billion and statutory surplus of$2.5 billion . With total debt of$504.2 million atMarch 31, 2023 , our debt-to-capital ratio was 15.9%. For additional information on our statutory surplus, see Note 22. "Statutory Financial Information, Capital Requirements, and Restrictions on Dividends and Transfers of Funds" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2022 Annual Report. The following table summarizes certain contractual obligations we had atMarch 31, 2023 , that may require us to invest additional amounts into our investment portfolio, which we would fund primarily with operating cash flows. Amount of ($ in millions)
Obligation
Alternative and other investments
$ 239.6
Non-publicly traded collateralized loan obligations in our fixed income
securities portfolio
94.7 Non-publicly traded common stock within our equity portfolio 33.1 CMLs 4.2 Privately-placed corporate securities 20.4 Total $ 392.0 There is no certainty (i) that any such additional investments will be required, and (ii) of the actual timing of the funding. We expect to have the capacity to fund these commitments through our normal operating and investing activities as they come due. Our current and long-term material cash requirements associated with (i) loss and loss expense reserves, (ii) contractual obligations under operating and financing leases for office space and equipment, and (iii) notes payable, funded primarily with operating cash flows, have not materially changed sinceDecember 31, 2022 .
Our other cash requirements include, without limitation, dividends to
stockholders, capital expenditures, and other operating expenses, including
commissions to our distribution partners, labor costs, premium taxes, general
and administrative expenses, and income taxes.
As ofMarch 31, 2023 , andDecember 31, 2022 , we had no (i) material guarantees on behalf of others and trading activities involving non-exchange traded contracts accounted for at fair value, (ii) material transactions with related parties other than those disclosed in Note 18. "Related Party Transactions" in Item 8. "Financial Statements and Supplementary Data." of our 2022 Annual Report, and (iii) material relationships with unconsolidated entities or financial partnerships, such as structured finance or special purpose entities, established to facilitate off-balance sheet arrangements or other contractually narrow or limited purposes. Consequently, we are not exposed to any material financing, liquidity, market, or credit risk related to off-balance sheet arrangements. We continually monitor our cash requirements and the capital resources we maintain at the holding company and operating subsidiary levels. As part of our long-term capital strategy, we strive to maintain capital metrics that support our targeted financial strength relative to the macroeconomic environment. Based on our analysis and market conditions, we may take a variety of actions, including, without limitation, contributing capital to the Insurance Subsidiaries, issuing additional debt and/or equity securities, repurchasing existing debt, repurchasing shares of the Parent's common stock, and increasing common stockholders' dividends. Our capital management strategy is intended to protect the interests of the policyholders of the Insurance Subsidiaries and our stockholders while enhancing our financial strength and underwriting capacity. We have a profitable book of business and solid capital base, positioning us well to take advantage of potential market opportunities. Book value per common share increased 6% to$40.82 as ofMarch 31, 2023 , from$38.57 as ofDecember 31, 2022 , driven by$1.48 in net income available to common stockholders per diluted common share and a$1.10 reduction in unrealized losses on our fixed income securities portfolio, partially offset by$0.30 in dividends to our common stockholders. The decrease in net unrealized losses on our fixed income securities was primarily driven by a decrease in benchmarkU.S. Treasury rates. Our adjusted book value per share, which is book value per share excluding total after-tax unrealized gains or losses on investments included in accumulated other comprehensive income (loss), increased to$46.61 as ofMarch 31, 2023 , from$45.49 as ofDecember 31, 2022 . Cash Flows Net cash provided by operating activities increased to$135.8 million in First Quarter 2023, compared to$92.7 million in First 37 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Table of Contents Quarter 2022, primarily driven by lower levels of claim payments made in First Quarter 2023 compared to First Quarter 2022. First Quarter 2022 included an increased level of Flood claim payments related to Hurricane Ida. Net cash used in investing activities increased to$98.2 million in First Quarter 2023, compared to$95.9 million in First Quarter 2022, as a result of investing more cash from operating activities. Operating cash flows during First Quarter 2023 were 14% of NPW. Net cash used in financing activities increased to$27.1 million in First Quarter 2023, compared to$24.0 million in First Quarter 2022, primarily due to increased dividends to our common stockholders and increased purchases of shares from employees to satisfy tax withholding obligations associated with the vesting of their restricted stock units.
Ratings
Our ratings remain the same as reported in our "Overview" section of Item 1.
"Business." of our 2022 Annual Report and are as follows:
NRSRO Financial Strength Rating Outlook
AM Best Company A+ Stable
Moody's Investors Services A2 Stable
Fitch Ratings ("Fitch") A+ Stable
Standard & Poor's Global Ratings ("S&P") A
Stable
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