Rising Interest Rates Bring Housing Slowdown

The frenzy has gone out of the housing market, which may mean more time to think for Park Cities buyers.

"We've been in three years of gradual slowdowns," said Cullum Clark, director of the George W. Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative. "To find a time as soft as we are now, you'd have to go back probably to the mid-teens."

The shift from a tight to a more historically normal market is due in part to a rapid rise in interest rates, which has made mortgages much more expensive over the past five years. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, average rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage rose from 2.67% in December 2020 to 6.81% in June 2025.

The rise has suppressed long-distance moves nationally. One driver of the Dallas luxury market is buyers moving to the area from California, who may defer relocation if it means replacing their current mortgage with a new one at more than double its rate, Clark explained.

"I do think the demand to live in the Dallas area is still growing," he said. "We are still a net destination for inbound moves and are likely to continue to be so in years to come. But nonetheless, from an interest rate point of view, there's been a significant slowdown."

On top of a decrease in cross-state moves, there has been a drastic decline in immigration. Though most of the reduction has been among relatively low-income individuals, Clark said he expects to find that there has also been a decrease in the number of higher-income immigrants.

The supply of homes, both across the country and in the Dallas area, has also outpaced demand. Nationally, there are considerably more homes on the market per individual than there have been at any time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Clark said.

He doesn't anticipate large price declines. But the slowing market may give buyers more time to do their homework before making purchases.

Real estate professional Valerie Dillon with Perry-Miller Streiff Group said she is working to educate sellers on the importance of pricing their homes correctly and ensuring that their properties are move-in ready. Houses can continue to sell rapidly with multiple offers, but they need to appeal to buyers.

"I still think there are a lot of buyers out there, but I don't think we have a ton of inventory that buyers are ready to pounce on, unless it's priced right," she said, "unless that person has to be in a home, and it's updated."

Buyers should do their due diligence, and make sure they're comfortable with any findings of inspection.

"Especially if a home's been sitting on the market for a while, you're not going into the multiple offer situation," Dillon said.

Clark said that the factors that have drawn buyers to Dallas haven't changed, and he remains long-term bullish on the region's future.

"The interest rate effect that I described is not forever. That's a more intermediate term issue," he said. "Over the long term, I think people move towards opportunity. They move towards where they think they're going to have a better life."