Researchers at Universidad de Alcala Zero in on Mathematics (A Comparison of Forecasting Mortality Models Using Resampling Methods)

2020 SEP 25 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Math Daily News -- Data detailed on mathematics have been presented. According to news reporting out of Alcala de Henares, Spain, by NewsRx editors, research stated, “The accuracy of the predictions of age-specific probabilities of death is an essential objective for the insurance industry since it dramatically affects the proper valuation of their products.”

Our news editors obtained a quote from the research from Universidad de Alcala: “Currently, it is crucial to be able to accurately calculate the age-specific probabilities of death over time since insurance companies’ profits and the social security of citizens depend on human survival; therefore, forecasting dynamic life tables could have significant economic and social implications. Quantitative tools such as resampling methods are required to assess the current and future states of mortality behavior. The insurance companies that manage these life tables are attempting to establish models for evaluating the risk of insurance products to develop a proactive approach instead of using traditional reactive schemes. The main objective of this paper is to compare three mortality models to predict dynamic life tables. By using the real data of European countries from the Human Mortality Database, this study has identified the best model in terms of the prediction ability for each sex and each European country. A comparison that uses cobweb graphs leads us to the conclusion that the best model is, in general, the Lee-Carter model.”

According to the news editors, the research concluded: “Additionally, we propose a procedure that can be applied to a life table database that allows us to choose the most appropriate model for any geographical area.”

For more information on this research see: A Comparison of Forecasting Mortality Models Using Resampling Methods. Mathematics, 2020,8(1550):1550. (Mathematics - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/mathematics). The publisher for Mathematics is MDPI AG.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.3390/math8091550.

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting David Atance, Departamento de Economia y Direccion de Empresas, Universidad de Alcala, Pza. San Diego S, N, 28801 Alcala de Henares, Spain. Additional authors for this research include Ana Debon, Eliseo Navarro.

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