Research Results from Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Update Understanding of Agriculture (The Impact of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Dollar Index and International Grain Futures and Spot …): Agriculture

2025 MAY 28 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Economics Daily Report -- Current study results on agriculture have been published. According to news reporting from Beijing, People’s Republic of China, by NewsRx journalists, research stated, “There is a strong connection between the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the trend of international food prices.”

Financial supporters for this research include The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science And Technology Innovation Program; The National Social Science Foundation of China.

The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences: “Employing the average information share model, EGARCH(Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity), and DCC-MGARCH(Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) models, this study investigates the relationship between the U.S. dollar index, international grain futures prices, and spot prices in the context of Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments from 2000 to 2023. The findings reveal that, first, under conditions of long-run cointegration, the U.S. dollar index exerts a strong pricing influence over international grain futures, while grain futures demonstrate a significant price discovery function over spot prices. Second, both international grain futures and spot markets exhibit asymmetric volatility, with price increases being more pronounced than decreases in response to external shocks. Additionally, the U.S. dollar index has a unidirectional and inverse influence on grain futures prices, while futures and spot prices interact bidirectionally and move in the same direction.”

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: “This paper contributes to understanding the impact of Federal Reserve monetary policy adjustments on international food prices and offers policy insights for countries to manage food import risks and maintain price stability.”

For more information on this research see: The Impact of Federal Reserve Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Dollar Index and International Grain Futures and Spot Markets. Agriculture, 2025,15(9):923. (Agriculture - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/agriculture). The publisher for Agriculture is MDPI AG.

A free version of this journal article is available at https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture15090923.

Our news editors report that more information may be obtained by contacting Xuezhen Ba, Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, People’s Republic of China. Additional authors for this research include Xizhao Wang, Yu Zhong.

(Our reports deliver fact-based news of research and discoveries from around the world.)