Reports from University of Botswana Advance Knowledge in Risk Management (Prediction of Onset and Cessation of Austral Summer Rainfall and Dry Spell Frequency Analysis In Semiarid Botswana)

2019 MAR 25 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Daily News -- New research on Risk Management is the subject of a report. According to news reporting out of Gaborone, Botswana, by NewsRx editors, research stated, “Uncertainties in rainfall have increased in the recent past exacerbating climate risks which are projected to be higher in semiarid environments. This study investigates the associated features of rainfall such as rain onset, cessation, length of the rain season (LRS), and dry spell frequency (DSF) as part of climate risk management in Botswana.”

Financial supporters for this research include Mobility for Engineering Graduates in Africa (METEGA), Carnegie Cooperation of New York through RUFORUM.

Our news journalists obtained a quote from the research from the University of Botswana, “Their trends were analysed using Mann-Kendall test statistic and Sen’s Slope estimator. The rainfall-evapotranspiration relationships were used in formulating the rain onset and cessation criteria. To understand some of the complexities arising from such uncertainties, artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict onset and cessation of rain. Results reveal higher coefficients of variation in onset dates as compared to cessation of rain. Pandamatenga experiences the earliest onset on 28th of November while Tsabong the latest on 14th of January. Likewise, earliest cessation is observed at Tshane on 22nd of February and the latest on 30th of March at Shakawe. The shortest LRS of 45days is registered at Tsabong whereas the northern locations show LRS greater than 100days. Stations across the country experience strong negative correlation between onset and LRS of -0.9. DSF shows increasing trends in 50% of the stations but only significant at Mahalapye, Pandamatenga, and Shakawe. Combining the LRS criteria and DSF, Kasane, Pandamatenga, and Shakawe were identified to be suitable for rainfed agriculture in Botswana especially for short to medium maturing cereal varieties. Predictions of onset and cessation indicate the possibility of delayed onset by 2-5weeks in the next 5years.”

According to the news editors, the research concluded: “Information generated from this study could help Botswana in climate risk management in the context of rainfed farming.”

For more information on this research see: Prediction of Onset and Cessation of Austral Summer Rainfall and Dry Spell Frequency Analysis In Semiarid Botswana. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2019;135(1-2):101-117. Theoretical and Applied Climatology can be contacted at: Springer Wien, Sachsenplatz 4-6, PO Box 89, A-1201 Wien, Austria. (Springer - www.springer.com; Theoretical and Applied Climatology - http://www.springerlink.com/content/0177-798x/)

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting J. Byakatonda, Univ Botswana, Dept. of Civil Engn, P Bag 0061, Gaborone, Botswana. Additional authors for this research include B.P. Parida, P.K. Kenabatho and D.B. Moalafhi.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2358-4. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

(Our reports deliver fact-based news of research and discoveries from around the world.)