Redrawn US Sixth attracts spotlight Winner-takes-all US Sixth District GOP primary draws spotlight

The Republican primary for the U.S. House Sixth District nomination - with a winner-take-all scenario - may be the most noteworthy of the state's 14 congressional races.

The primary also is likely to be among the most intriguing nationally since it will serve as a defining Super Tuesday measuring stick of an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

The passage of the controversial GOP-drawn congressional map for North Carolina led Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning to decide not to run for a second term in the Sixth. With no other Democrat filing, the winner of the GOP primary will be the next Sixth representative.

Trump surprisingly endorsed a relative newcomer in Addison McDowell - who has ties to U.S. Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C. - over three previous congressional candidates, including retired Army Lt. Col. Christian Castelli, who was the district's Republican candidate in 2022.

Bo Hines, who Trump endorsed for the 13th District in 2022, and Mark Walker, who served the Sixth from 2015 to 2021, still prominently feature photos standing with Trump on their campaign websites.

The other candidates are Dr. Mary Ann Contogiannis of Greensboro and High Point mayor Jay Wagner.

Only Walker of the six candidates responded to a series of Journal questions about the 2024 primary and their viewpoints on key campaign issues: how to end the partisan logjam in Congress; their thoughts on Winston-Salem as part of their district; the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election; and the multiple indictments facing former President Donald Trump.

New Sixth

The new Sixth has a 57% to 43% Republican advantage, according to an analysis by Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College with an expertise on congressional races.

It is the most Triad-centric of the four U.S. House districts representing the region.

The district includes Kernersville, Walkertown and the southern Forsyth border with Davidson and Davie counties through the 2030 general election barring a successful legal challenge.

The Sixth portion of Guilford forms a loop shaped like a backward C around the county's suburban communities and High Point. Also included is all of Davidson, Davie and Rowan and about 20% of Cabarrus County.

"Walker's decision not to run again for Congress in 2020 was a result of an unfavorable redistricting, and so it is understandable and fitting that a more favorable redistricting for the 2024 election would lead him to consider returning to Congress," Dinan said.

According to the N.C. State Board of Elections, the top candidate who receives more than 30% of the vote in a primary wins their party's nomination.

If no candidate receives more than 30% of the vote, the candidate who receives the second-highest vote total may call for a second primary that would be held May 14. Only the top two vote-getters would be on the ballot for a second primary.

Key issues

The overarching issue for the six candidates is immigration and southern U.S. border security.

Candidates also cited with varying emphasis their support and/or promotion of cultural war issues, such as opposing gender-affirming care for children and transgender girls from playing public school sports, along with objecting to diversity and racial public-health and education policies.

They all support Second Amendment gun rights.

Crowded primary races make it "often difficult to handicap or make predictions regarding the outcome of party primaries since very little polling is done on U.S. House races, especially, and there is often very little separation in candidates' policy positions," said John Dinan, a political science professor at Wake Forest University.

Dinan said analysts "are led to focus on candidates' name recognition, what endorsements they have received, how much money their campaign has raised, and how much money has been spent by outside groups on their behalf."

Dinan said that challenge is particularly acute in the Sixth.

Dinan said Mark Walker likely "will have the highest name recognition of anyone in this particular primary, and also has the backing of some key groups. That will count for a lot. It is not everything, though.

"Addison McDowell boasts endorsements from important Republicans, Bo Hines has the backing of a key outside group willing to spend money on his behalf, and Christian Castelli was the Republican nominee two years ago and has advantages flowing from that prior run for this seat."

Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College with an expertise on congressional races, said the Sixth likely will be decided by lower voter turnout, particularly if Trump emerges before March 5 as the only GOP presidential candidate.

"My guess is that voter turnout would be above 20%, just based on dynamics and interest, but likely below the traditional 30% that presidential primaries garner in this state," Bitzer said.

"The likely primary voter is already one well engaged at this point and will use their ballot to make a statement and send a message as to their type of candidate that they want leading their party.

"This is probably truer on the Republican side of the primary than on the Democratic side."

Christian Castelli

It will be Castelli's second run for Congress.

Castelli won the 2022 GOP nomination in a five-candidate field with 36.2% of the vote. He lost by a 53.9% to 45% margin to Manning, which was within the margin projected by several political analysts.

"My purpose and motivation for seeking the Republican nomination is simple: We need experience, and we need decisive conservative leadership," Castelli said in an Oct. 27 statement to the Journal as he announced his candidacy.

Castelli spent the first six years of his military career as an Airborne Ranger-qualified infantry officer, and the last 15 years as a Special Forces officer and Green Beret. He made the decision to run for Congress in 2022 following what he called "the botched Biden administration withdrawal from Afghanistan."

He said the new Republican-lean of the Sixth had no influence on his decision to run in 2024.

"Congressional experience, elected office experience is noble, but it is not what is needed right now," Castelli said.

"We've tried it; it's failed us. We need real-world, real-life experience to put us on a course of security, strength and prosperity.

"The answer is not to be the candidate of the D.C. Establishment and K Street. The answer is the support of voters right here at home in the district."

Mary Ann Contogiannis

Dr. Mary Ann Contogiannis has the least political experience of the six candidates. She has been a plastic surgeon since 1999 and currently operates a small clinic in Greensboro.

She has served on the board of directors of the N.C. Medical Society (NCMS) and the American Society of Plastic Surgery, and on the Legislative Cabinet of the medical society. Contogiannis has served as president of the N.C. Society of Plastic Surgeon.

Not unexpectedly, Contogiannis has made healthcare a primary focus of her campaign, including the impact of Medicare on North Carolina's senior citizens, the healthcare workforce shortage, regulating pharmacy benefit managers, and addressing prior healthcare authorizations.

Contogiannis says she is pro-life, citing on her campaign website "the unborn should be protected. A fetus is an innocent human being and it is morally wrong to kill a human being."

Contogiannis also said she is pro-school choice and supports Parents Bill of Rights legislation.

"Parents should be empowered to be active participants in deciding their children's curriculum as they know what is best for their children and their education," she said.

Bo Hines

Hines, listed as running out of Mocksville, said on his campaign website that his candidacy is driven by his concerns that "the nation I grew up in is far different from the nation we live in today."

In 2022, Hines rode his Trump endorsement to emerge from an eight-candidate field with 32.1% of the vote to win the Republican nomination for the 13th District that's focused on the Triangle. Hines lost to Democrat Wiley Nickel by a 51.6% to 46.4% margin.

"As your next congressman, I will fight D.C.'s reckless spending, work to restore America's standing in the world, and strive valiantly to put America first every day. America's great comeback starts right here in NC 6."

There is no requirement a U.S. House representative live in the district in which they are running for a seat.

That hasn't prevented Hines from drawing the most campaign flak from his rivals.

Castelli described Hines as "a perennial office shopper ... Bo Hines showcased his youthful indecisiveness last election cycle when he explored running in three different congressional districts ... losing a Republican-leaning district near Raleigh."

Walker's comment posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, included that "as the highest rated conservative to serve in U.S. congressional leadership, and the last member to secure a vote on a balance budget amendment, I look forward to comparing my proven record to someone who is still trying to buy his first job."

Addison McDowell

McDowell received Trump's endorsement on Dec. 12, shortly before McDowell officially announced his candidacy. Donald Trump Jr. has been appearing with McDowell in several Triad campaign stops.

On Jan. 30, McDowell was endorsed by U.S. Sen. Ted Budd, R-N.C., who served three terms in the U.S. House before winning his Senate seat in 2022. McDowell worked as a constituent liaison in Budd's congressional office.

McDowell, a health-insurance industry lobbyist for Blue Cross Blue Shield N.C., cites on his campaign website that border security is his top priority, in large part because stopping the flow of illegal drugs is personal to him.

McDowell said in declaring his candidacy that "we lost our brother seven years ago to fentanyl overdose, and it still hurts like it was yesterday."

"I don't want anyone to have to endure that heartache, and I can't wait to get to Congress to help Ted Budd and President Trump make sure our border patrol and law enforcement officers get the support they need and deserve."

McDowell also cited as a campaign focus encouraging keeping jobs in the country, citing the loss of manufacturing jobs in the district since the late 1990s.

"We've seen firsthand in NC what happens when we don't protect and promote American jobs as priority one, and that's why I'm proud to support the America First Agenda that President Trump champions," according to the website.

Jay Wagner

Wagner said in announcing his candidacy that "now more than ever, it's vital to have serious conservative leadership." He touts his experience as a two-term High Point mayor, as well as in the private sector.

Election integrity is his top priority, saying that "we must never have elections like we had conducted in 2020 ever again."

"The Democrats used the COVID-19 virus to illegally change election voting laws under 'emergency action clauses.' "

Wagner said he supports outlawing ballot drop boxes, ending no-excuse mail-in voting and limiting the number of early voting days so that "Election Day should mean something."

Numerous studies have shown that Democrats prefer early voting, while Republicans prefer voting on Election Day.

Wagner stated that "any politician (who) tells you our country needs immigration reform is talking about mass amnesty or is too ignorant to know what is going on at the border."

"I will focus on reducing energy costs, curbing excessive spending, reducing our unprecedented inflation, opposing rising sentiments of anti-Semitism, and fully standing with Israel and supporting their war against terror.

"Weakness is the greatest detriment to freedom, and I will ensure we have strong leadership to face our greatest of challenges ahead."

Mark Walker

Walker declared his candidacy for the Sixth shortly after the legislative passage of the new congressional map.

He had struggled for months to gain traction in his aborted campaign for the 2024 Republican governor nomination against front-runner Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, as have state Treasurer Dale Folwell and Bill Graham.

Walker served in the Sixth from 2015 to 2021 when the GOP-drawn congressional map made it a Republican lean.

"I am the only candidate in this race with a proven conservative voting record," Walker said in response to questions from the Journal.

"When in Congress I also voted with President Trump 97% of the time on policy. Because of my proven conservative record, our campaign has been endorsed by the NRA and Veterans for Trump.

"Voters are resonating with our message of fighting to protect our borders and course correct Biden's failed economy."

Walker has faced criticism when prominent Republican officials U.S. House speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and former Trump administration Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said they had not officially endorsed Walker as he had indicated.

Walker's website still lists endorsements from U.S. Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, U.S. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Castelli has pointed out Walker's pattern of "abandoning" races in which he was not the clear favorite. "The people of the 6th congressional district deserve better than being an afterthought or consolation prize for professional politicians," Castelli said.

Walker said that "my focus this campaign has been on fighting the migrant crisis and failed Bidenomics that has affected every one of us in the district. That has been our priority this campaign, and it will be our priority when elected to Congress.

"We feel confident that our message has broken through the political noise."

When asked about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, Walker said "I believe there were problems in the 2020 election, specifically at the state level with governors overriding their own state Constitution sending out hundreds of thousands of unrequested ballots.

"A health scare does not provide an elected official the authority to override the Constitution."

[email protected]@rcraverWSJ