Queensland University of Technology Reports Findings in Risk Management (A simulation-based empirical bayes approach: Incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in the before-after evaluation of engineering treatments): Risk Management

2021 DEC 27 (NewsRx) -- By a News Reporter-Staff News Editor at Insurance Daily News -- New research on Risk Management is the subject of a report. According to news reporting from Brisbane, Australia, by NewsRx journalists, research stated, “The Empirical Bayes approach for before-after evaluation methodology utilizing the negative binomial model does not account well for unobserved heterogeneity. Building on the Empirical Bayes approach, the objective of this study was to propose a framework to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity in before-after countermeasure evaluation.”

The news correspondents obtained a quote from the research from the Queensland University of Technology, “In particular, this study has proposed a simulation-based Empirical Bayes approach by applying the panel random parameters negative binomial model with parameterized overdispersion (PRNB-PO) to evaluate the effectiveness of engineering treatments. The proposed framework has been tested for the wide centerline treatment (WCLT) on rural two-lane two-way highways in Australia. The empirical analysis included 511 km of WCLT treated highways in a before-after evaluation within a time period of 2010 - 2018 and 430 km of reference sites in Queensland, Australia. The PRNB-PO models outperformed the traditional negative binomial models in terms of goodness-of-fit and prediction performance for total injury crashes, and fatal and serious injury (FSI) crashes. The simulation-based Empirical Bayes approach using the PRNB-PO model resulted in more precise estimates of crash modification factors than the standard Empirical Bayes approach. The WCLT is found to result in significant reductions in total injury crashes by 28.21% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 22.92 - 33.50%), FSI crashes by 13.90% (95% CI = 6.99 - 20.81%), and head-on crashes by 25.45% (95% CI = 14.87 - 36.03%).”

According to the news reporters, the research concluded: “Overall, WCLT is an effective engineering treatment and should be considered a low-cost countermeasure on rural two-lane two-way highways.”

This research has been peer-reviewed.

For more information on this research see: A simulation-based empirical bayes approach: Incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in the before-after evaluation of engineering treatments. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2021;165:106527. Accident Analysis & Prevention can be contacted at: Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England. (Elsevier - www.elsevier.com; Accident Analysis & Prevention - http://www.journals.elsevier.com/accident-analysis-and-prevention/)

Our news journalists report that additional information may be obtained by contacting Hassan Bin Tahir, Queensland University of Technology, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Brisbane, Australia. Additional authors for this research include Md Mazharul Haque, Shamsunnahar Yasmin and Mark King.

The direct object identifier (DOI) for that additional information is: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2021.106527. This DOI is a link to an online electronic document that is either free or for purchase, and can be your direct source for a journal article and its citation.

Publisher contact information for the journal Accident Analysis & Prevention is: Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, England.

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