PRESENTATION 2024 q1
FIRST-QUARTER 2024 FINANCIAL RESULTS
Forward-Looking Statements
Statements contained in this presentation about future performance, including, without limitation, operating results, capital expenditures, rate base growth, dividend policy, financial outlook, and other statements that are not purely historical, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements reflect our current expectations; however, such statements involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from current expectations. These forward-looking statements represent our expectations only as of the date of this presentation, and
- ability of SCE to recover its costs through regulated rates, timely or at all, including uninsured wildfire-related and debris flow-related costs (including amounts paid for self-insured retention and co-insurance), costs incurred to mitigate the risk of utility equipment causing future wildfires, costs incurred as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and increased costs due to supply chain constraints, inflation and rising interest rates;
- impact of affordability of customer rates on SCE's ability to execute its strategy, including the impact of affordability on the regulatory approval of operations and maintenance expenses, and proposed capital investment projects;
- ability of SCE to implement its operational and strategic plans, including its Wildfire Mitigation Plan and capital program;
- risks of regulatory or legislative restrictions that would limit SCE's ability to implement operational measures to mitigate wildfire risk, including Public Safety Power Shutoff ("PSPS") and fast curve settings, when conditions warrant or would otherwise limit SCE's operational practices relative to wildfire risk mitigation;
- ability of SCE to obtain safety certifications from the
Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety of the California Natural Resources Agency ("OEIS") - risk that California Assembly Bill 1054 ("AB 1054") does not effectively mitigate the significant exposure faced by
California investor-owned utilities related to liability for damages arising from catastrophic wildfires where utility facilities are alleged to be a substantial cause, including the longevity of theWildfire Insurance Fund and theCalifornia Public Utilities Commission ("CPUC") interpretation of and actions under AB 1054, including its interpretation of the prudency standard clarified by AB 1054; - risks associated with the operation of electrical facilities, including worker and public safety issues, the risk of utility assets causing or contributing to wildfires, failure, availability, efficiency, and output of equipment and facilities, and availability and cost of spare parts;
- physical security of
Edison International's and SCE's critical assets and personnel and the cybersecurity ofEdison International's and SCE's critical information technology systems for grid control, and business, employee and customer data; - ability of
Edison International and SCE to effectively attract, manage, develop and retain a skilled workforce, including its contract workers; - decisions and other actions by the CPUC, the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission , and theUnited States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and other governmental authorities, including decisions and actions related to nationwide or statewide crisis, determinations of authorized rates of retuor retuon equity, the recoverability of wildfire-related and debris flow-related costs, issuance of SCE's wildfire safety certification, wildfire mitigation efforts, approval and implementation of electrification programs, and delays in executive, regulatory and legislative actions; - potential for penalties or disallowances for non-compliance with applicable laws and regulations, including fines, penalties and disallowances related to wildfires where SCE's equipment is alleged to be associated with ignition;
- extreme weather-related incidents (including events caused, or exacerbated, by climate change, such as wildfires, debris flows, flooding, droughts, high wind events and extreme heat events) and other natural disasters (such as earthquakes), which could cause, among other things, public safety issues, property damage, rotating outages and other operational issues (such as issues due to damaged infrastructure), PSPS activations and unanticipated costs;
- cost and availability of labor, equipment and materials, including as a result of supply chain constraints and inflation;
- ability of
Edison International or SCE to borrow funds and access bank and capital markets on reasonable terms; - risks associated with the decommissioning of San Onofre, including those related to worker and public safety, public opposition, permitting, governmental approvals, on-site storage of spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive material, delays, contractual disputes, and cost overruns;
- risks associated with cost allocation resulting in higher rates for utility bundled service customers because of possible customer bypass or departure for other electricity providers such as Community Choice Aggregators ("CCA," which are cities, counties, and certain other public agencies with the authority to generate and/or purchase electricity for their local residents and businesses) and Electric Service Providers (entities that offer electric power and ancillary services to retail customers, other than electrical corporations (like SCE) and CCAs);
- risks inherent in SCE's capital investment program, including those related to project site identification, public opposition, environmental mitigation, construction, permitting, contractor performance, changes in the
California Independent System Operator's transmission plans, and governmental approvals; and - actions by credit rating agencies to downgrade
Edison International or SCE's credit ratings or to place those ratings on negative watch or negative outlook.
Other important factors are discussed under the headings "Forward-Looking Statements", "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis" in
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1 |
First Quarter Key Messages
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- Q1 performance on track; affirming 2024 core EPS guidance
Edison is leading the industry's response to climate - change and has reduced risk of losses from wildfires by 85-88%
2025 GRC: Intervenor focus areas as expected; SCE - continues advocacy for requested funding of critical grid investments
On track to file Woolsey application in Q3; revised - best estimate of expected losses, resulting in net after-tax charge of
$333 million - Continued confidence in delivering on 5-7% Core EPS growth for 2021-2025 and 2025-2028
- Q1 performance on track; affirming 2024 core EPS guidance
- See Earnings Per Share Non-GAAP Reconciliations and Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures in Appendix
- Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) based on the midpoint of the initial 2021 EPS guidance range of
$4.42-4.62 - Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) based on the midpoint of the 2025 EPS guidance range of
$5.50-5.90
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( |
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Q1 2024 GAAP EPS |
Q1 2024 Core EPS1 |
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Affirmed
2024 Core EPS Guidance1
ReiteratedReiterated
5-7%5-7%
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Core EPS CAGR |
Core EPS CAGR |
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2021-20252 |
2025-20283 |
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2 |
SCE is seeing numerous proof points and results from its differentiated and substantial wildfire mitigation efforts
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5,700+ MILES |
2 MILLION+ |
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OF COVERED CONDUCTOR1 |
TRIMS AND REMOVALS IN HFRA1 |
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1 MILLION+ |
1,740+ |
190+ |
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HFRA INSPECTIONS1 |
WEATHER STATIONS1 |
HD CAMERAS1 |
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1. Since 2018 and as of
No ignitions due to failure of covered conductor
100% fewer structures destroyed
(in 2023 vs. 2017-18)
99% fewer acres burned
(in 2023 vs. 2017-18)
- ~90% visual coverageof HFRA
3
SCE's 2023-25 Wildfire Mitigation Plan (WMP) builds upon accomplishments
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Hardening |
Enhancing Operational |
Bolstering Situational |
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the Grid |
Practices |
Awareness |
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Covered conductor & |
Vegetation Management |
Weather stations |
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undergrounding |
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Fire-resistant poles |
Aerial & ground Inspections |
Wildfire cameras |
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Protective devices & |
Public Safety Power Shutoff |
Fire spread modeling |
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settings |
technology |
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Advanced Technologies |
Aerial |
Fire Suppression |
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Rapid Earth Fault |
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Early Fault Detection, |
Continue partnership with |
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Current Limiter, Artificial Intelligence |
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local fire agencies |
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and Machine Learning |
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4 |
SCE estimates its wildfire mitigation and PSPS have reduced probability of losses from catastrophic wildfires by 85-88%1,2
Stochastic modeling of 50,000 simulations to estimate future probability of losses
Uses Moody's RMS' model widely used by insurance industry to price risk
Risk reduction achieved predominantly via grid hardening vs. PSPS
Annual Risk of accessing the Wildfire Fund3
Risk of exceeding AB 1054 liability cap over three years3
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Decreasing dependency |
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Probability of Loss |
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on PSPS |
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~85% |
~10% |
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lower |
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~88% |
of total risk |
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reduction |
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lower |
- Baseline risk estimated by
Risk Management Solutions, Inc. (Moody's RMS) using its wildfire model, relying on the following data provided by SCE: the location of SCE's assets, CPUC reportable ignitions from 2014-Q3 2023, mitigation effectiveness and locations of installed covered conductor, tree removals, inspections, line clearing, fast curve settings, and PSPS de-energization criteria - There are risks inherent in the simulation analysis, models and predictions of SCE and Moody's RMS relating to the likelihood of and damage due to wildfires and climate change. As with any simulation analysis or model related to physical systems, particularly those with lower frequencies of occurrence and potentially high severity outcomes, the actual losses from catastrophic wildfire events may differ from the results of the simulation analysis and models of Moody's RMS and SCE. Range may vary for other loss thresholds
- Includes (i) total potential insured losses estimated by Moody's RMS, and (ii) total potential uninsured losses estimated by SCE based on management experience and consultation with insurance industry experts. "Fund" refers to
CA AB 1054Wildfire Insurance Fund . SCE used Moody's RMS loss estimates along with its estimates of uninsured losses to quantify the reductions in estimated probability. "Annual Risk of accessing theWildfire Fund " refers to incurring losses ≥$1.0 billion
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5 |
By end of 2025, expect to be approaching 90% of total distribution lines in high fire risk area hardened1
Hardening Status of Total Circuit Miles of Distribution Lines in SCE's High Fire Risk Area
As of
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% Physically Hardened |
78% |
90%+ |
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Distribution lines |
Completed2 |
Planned2,3 |
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underground |
(primarily covered conductor) |
- ~7,300
- ~5,730
2,800
- Refers to circuit miles of overhead distribution infrastructure in SCE's high fire risk areas (HFRA)
- Includes covered conductor and undergrounding
- 2025-2028is subject to regulatory approval. SCE has requested funding for ~1,830 miles during 2025-2028 in its 2025 GRC
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6 |
SCE has the most hardened distribution circuit miles in
Hardening Status of California IOU Distribution Lines in High Fire Risk Area
Thousands of circuit miles, Sorted by percentage of total distribution circuit miles in HFRA hardened, Estimated as of December 31, 20232
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
Not Yet
Hardened
Hardened
Overhead
Underground
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IOU A |
IOU B |
IOU C |
IOU D |
IOU E |
- ~13k distribution circuit miles vs. ~9k distribution circuit miles (underground and hardened overhead) for other IOUs combined
- Estimated based on data reported by Large and Small IOUs (as defined by
Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety ) 2023-2025 Wildfire Mitigation Plans on Table 5-2, assuming proposed miles in those plans for 2023 were completed or based on disclosed data, and Q4 2023 Quarterly Data Reports
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7 |
First-Quarter Earnings Summary
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Q1 2024 |
Q1 2023 |
Variance |
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Basic Earnings Per Share (EPS) |
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SCE |
$ |
0.17 |
$ |
0.97 |
$ |
(0.80) |
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EIX Parent & Other |
(0.20) |
(0.16) |
(0.04) |
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Basic EPS |
$ |
(0.03) |
$ |
0.81 |
$ |
(0.84) |
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Less: Non-core Items1 |
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SCE |
$ |
(1.16) |
$ |
(0.32) |
$ |
(0.84) |
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EIX Parent & Other |
- |
0.04 |
(0.04) |
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Total Non-core Items |
$ |
(1.16) |
$ |
(0.28) |
$ |
(0.88) |
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Core Earnings Per Share (EPS) |
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SCE |
$ |
1.33 |
$ |
1.29 |
$ |
0.04 |
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EIX Parent & Other |
(0.20) |
(0.20) |
- |
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Core EPS |
$ |
1.13 |
$ |
1.09 |
$ |
0.04 |
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Key SCE EPS Drivers2 |
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Higher revenue3,4 |
$ |
0.35 |
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GRC escalation |
0.33 |
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Other CPUC revenue |
0.03 |
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(0.01) |
(0.09) |
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Higher O&M4 |
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Wildfire-related claims |
0.01 |
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Higher depreciation4 |
(0.08) |
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Higher net financing costs4 |
(0.12) |
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Income taxes3 |
(0.01) |
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Other |
(0.02) |
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Property and other taxes |
(0.03) |
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Other income and expenses |
0.01 |
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Total core drivers |
$ |
0.04 |
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Non-core items1 |
(0.84) |
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Total |
$ |
(0.80) |
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EIX EPS2 |
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EIX Parent and Other |
$ |
- |
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Total core drivers |
$ |
- |
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Non-core items1 |
(0.04) |
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Total |
$ |
(0.04) |
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1. |
See EIX Core EPS Non-GAAP Reconciliations and Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures in Appendix |
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2. |
For comparability, 2024 first quarter key EPS drivers are reported based on 2023 weighted-average share count of 382.5 million. 2024 first quarter weighted-average shares outstanding is 384.5 million |
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3. |
Includes |
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4. |
Includes |
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Note: Diluted (loss) earnings were |
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8 |
GRC underpins
Capital deployment expected to increase in 2025-20281
Capital Expenditures, $ in Billions
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Forecast |
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0.9 |
1.0 |
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0.8 |
0.7 |
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0.4 |
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0.2 |
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CPUC |
5.6 |
6.7 |
7.2 |
7.2 |
7.0 |
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5.2 |
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Range |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
2028 |
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Case2 |
(Recorded) |
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- Forecast for 2025 includes amounts requested in SCE's 2025 GRC filing. Additionally, reflects non-GRC spending subject to future regulatory requests beyond GRC proceedings and FERC Formula Rate updates
- Annual Range Case capital reflects variability associated with future requests based on management judgment, potential for permitting delays and other operational considerations
Forecast does not include substantial additional capital deployment opportunities
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1. |
NextGen ERP |
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2. |
Advanced Metering |
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Infrastructure (AMI) 2.0 |
$2bn+ |
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3. |
Other potential |
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investments in the grid |
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supporting reliability, |
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resilience, and readiness |
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4. |
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$2bn+ |
9
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