NOAA forecasters predict near normal hurricane season

Savannah Morning News (GA)

May 24--The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season this year. That's still nine to 15 named storms, which is "a lot," said Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster during a national teleconference announcing the seasonal prediction Thursday.

The outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to Nov. 30.

"Atmospheric and and ocean conditions that factored into this outlook included competing signals," said Neil Jacobs, acting NOAA administrator. "On one hand the ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress activity in the Atlantic hurricane season. On the other hand the combination of warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean combined with an enhanced West African monsoon favor increased activity."

NOAA predicts only how many storms and what strength they will be, not where they will go.

"This outlook does not suggest how many of these storms will strike land," Bell said.

For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of nine to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including two to four major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

Forecasters at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project in April forecast slightly below normal activity in the Atlantic this season with a predicted 13 named storms, and five hurricanes, two of which are expected to be major hurricanes.

Last year, which saw two hurricanes so devastating that the names Michael and Florence were retired, began with a prediction of 10 to 16 named storms. Five to nine were predicted to be hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes. Those ranges proved accurate, with a final tally of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

At Thursday's teleconference, Acting Deputy FEMA Administrator Daniel Kaniewski urged preparedness, including a household emergency kit with enough basic supplies for 72 hours, a communication plan and knowledge of evacuation routes.

"My message today: It only takes one," he said. "It only takes one landfalling hurricane to cause great destruction to a community. Thus we need to prepare now."

He cited Hurricane Harvey as an example of the benefits of flood insurance. The average FEMA payout for uninsured disaster survivors in Texas was $3,000, he said. In contrast, homes protected by flood insurance saw an average insurance payout of $117,000 after Harvey.

"Three thousand dollars won't make you whole," he said.

The first named storm of 2019 is already history. Subtropical storm Andrea formed and dissipated earlier this month near Bermuda. Bell said such pre-season or early season storms form from a trailing frontal boundary or an upper level depression in the jet stream and tend to be short-lived like Andrea. He doesn't see them as predictive.

"Early season activity is typically not a signal of what to expect for the rest of hurricane season," Bell said.

Hurricane season peaks in August, September and October with storms that form from cloud systems moving westward from Africa.

"Those are the storms that can very often strengthen into hurricanes, major hurricanes and really control the overall hurricane season," Bell said.

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