Looming ‘Year of the Woman’ could tilt area Congressional races

Dec. 22--The thunder of the women's movement continues to grow in politics, leading some experts to predict it will dwarf 1992's "Year of the Woman" when the number of female Congress members jumped from 33 to 55.

The effects in Southern California could reach into the five 2018 congressional races where Democrats are vigorously targeting Republican incumbents -- all districts where Hillary Clinton prevailed last year despite the GOP having the edge in voter registration.

The wave of 1992 was credited largely to Anita Hill's allegations of sexual harassment in the confirmation hearings of Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas. This time, there's frustration over Clinton's loss, over the sexually charged comments and alleged sexual misbehavior of President Donald Trump, and over the chronic institutional harassment fueling the #metoo movement.

Many also feel under attack by policies of the Trump administration.

"That anger and concern has created a level of involvement and activism we've never seen before," Deborah Walsh, director of the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University. "There is more national mobilization this time around. With Anita Hill, there wasn't the same opportunity to make a movement out of it."

The Rutgers center's November survey found 354 women -- 82 percent of them Democrats -- were launching bids for the House. That's about twice the number of female House candidates at that stage of each of the past three elections.

Nine of those women, eight of them Democrats, are running in the five targeted GOP seats in Southern California -- seats crucial to Democrats' hopes of flipping the 24 districts needed to take control of the House. Orange County is home to four of those battleground districts.

Experts differ over how much of a gender advantage a female candidate will have over a male counterpart. But most agree that beneath the surge of women candidates is a deepgroundswell of grassroots activism -- seen in the January's nationwide Women's March and in the heavily female Indivisible movement -- that could impact the election regardless of the gender of the candidates.

"If it's going to be a wave of change, it's not just going to be because of the candidates," said Syracuse University political scientist Danielle Thomsen, who specializes in the role of women in politics. "It's going to be because there's a wave of discontent with the policies and efforts of the Republican Party."

If that benefits Democratic women candidates, they aren't complaining.

"We're banding together and working together," said technology executive Rachel Payne, one of two Democratic women among the 12 challengers to Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa. "The power that women have and the effect that we can have is now. We need women at the helm now."

Gender advantage?

Architect and businesswoman Laura Oatman, the other woman challenging Rohrabacher, was so excited last year at the prospect of electing the first woman president, she booked a flight and hotel room well in advance so she could be on hand to celebrate the inauguration firsthand with her daughter.

When Trump prevailed, Oatman -- like many others -- decided to travel to Washington for a different event. The Women's March, the day after inauguration, attracted nearly 500,000 in D.C. and several million more in marches elsewhere in the country.

"It was a sea of pink swarming on Washington, D.C.," the first-time candidate said. "I realized there were a lot of people who felt the way I did. That was really what planted the seed of the idea to run."

Besides Trump comments that many find misogynistic, Oatman said motivating issues for women included the prospect of Supreme Court appointments that could radically reduce abortion rights and new funding restrictions for international non-profits that provide abortion counseling.

Chapman University political scientist Lori Cox Han, author of "In It To Win It: Electing Madam President," said gender could be a boost when it comes to fundraising, particularly for Democratic women candidates. There are groups on the left -- Emily's List among the most prominent -- that seek out qualified women candidates to support, while few Republican counterparts exist, she said.

But in terms of women's decisions at the polls, Han said party affiliation is a bigger factor than candidategender. While Clinton won 54 percent of the female electorate last year, Barack Obama won 55 percent in 2012, she noted.

Thomsen pointed to additional research that shows gender is not a big factor in determining a winner, but says that a lone women in a large field of men could help distinguish that candidate.

In the races of Reps. Darrell Issa, R-Vista, Mimi Walters, R-Laguna Beach, and Ed Royce, R-Yorba Linda, the number of challengers range from four to eight, with a single Democratic women running in each district. The field of eight challengers to Rep. Steve Knight, R-Palmdale, includes three women. Those four incumbents, along with Rohrabacher, have been targeted by national Democrats.

Meanwhile, many Democratic organizers are more concerned with the gender of the voters next year than of the candidates, as women are more likely than men to identify with Democrats. In Orange County, for instance, 36.9 percent of women are registered Democrats and 36.3 are Republicans while men are 30 percent Democrat and 39 percent Republican -- the remainder are independent and third party voters -- according to Political Data Inc. Statewide, 49 percent of women and 40 percent of men are Democrats.

That means a large turnout by women could be a deciding factor.

GOP women

The number of women in Congress continued to grow after the then record-setting 55 who were seated after the 1992 elections. There are now 105 women in the two chambers, with Democrats having a 78-27 advantage among them.

A core reason for Democrats' larger growth is the increasing polarization of the parties. GOP women have tended to be among the more moderate, while congressional Republicans overall have become increasingly conservative, Thomsen said. But congressional Democrats' shift farther to the left has included more women as Democratic women tend to among the party's more liberal members, she said.

On the GOP side, Walters said Republicans are recruiting women. But Rutgers' survey found that unlike the big jump in Democrat in women running for the House, the 63 Republicans accounted for just 18 percent of the total number of women candidates so far, and only a small jump from the the 60 GOP women who were running at this stage of the 2016 races. Walters said she didn't see the issues of sexual harassment and concern with the Trump administration as motivating factors for GOP candidates.

"We're not seeing that from our side," she said.

Nonetheless, Walters' gender could help neutralize the pro-woman Trump backlash in her own race, according to some political scientists. Walters campaign consultant Dave Gilliard shared that view.

"I think more voters, especially independents, who might not consider a male (Republican) will be open to considering her," Gilliard.

Another neutralizing factor in the election could be targeted Republicans taking steps to distance themselves from Trump -- or at least not to identify closely with him. Responding to a series of questions about the potential of Trump to hurt her campaign, Walters never referred to the president and consistently focused answers on her own positions and legislative history.

Even Rohrabacher, who has defended some of Trump's more controversial statements in the past, joined Issa to become one of two California Republicans to vote against the tax reform plan championed by the president.

Potential pitfalls

If candidate gender is reason a Democratic woman candidate advances to the general election in a targeted GOP district, it's not necessarily good news for Democrats.

Voters motivated by a female candidate's gender will largely already be backing the candidate in the primary, leaving few new gender-based voters to attract in November. If a stronger overall Democratic candidate who was male was edged out by a women in the primary because of gender-based voters, that could prove good news for the Republican incumbent.

Carole Uhlaner, who specializes in gender politics at UC Irvine, also warns that a lot can change in the 10 months left before the general elections -- new issues can emerge and existing ones can transform. That's particularly true with the #metoo movement, she said.

"I'm concerned that it has gone overboard in terms of not allowing due process -- in terms of boorishness being mistaken for sexual assault," Uhlaner said, noting that men are being pushed to resign from their jobs without a legal determination of guilt.

"It could come back to haunt Democrats in terms of political correctness run amok. Women might vote one way, but how are men going to vote?"

On the other hand, Virginia state elections last month found Democrats outperforming expectations -- particularly in white-collar suburbs similar to some of those being contested in Southern California next year. That contributed Democrats taking over the Virginia governorship and pulling even with Republicans in the state legislature's lower chamber.

Those results have not only buoyed Democrats optimism, but have caught the attention of many Republicans as well.

"Certainly, there is reason for concern there," Gilliard said. "Democrats did well in the suburbs. There was high turnout of Democrats and Democratic women. That's a cautionary flag for Republicans if that level of interest... continues."

Han, meanwhile, said she'd like to see 2018 be the Year of the Woman for both parties.

"We need more qualified women in office," she said.

"We need more qualified men in office, too."

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