Jon Talton: Happy days here to stay? Ten years of expansion move into cloudy territory
Afterward,
Beyond these cities, where the dark fields of the republic rolled on under the night (more apologies to
It took until 2014 for national employment to reach its prerecession levels. Even then, a "jobs gap" remained -- the employment that would have been created to serve newcomers to the workforce, but was stifled by the downturn. That gap didn't close until 2017.
It took a decade for median household income to return to its 2007 level. For the average American, the collapse caused a lifetime income loss of
But that number is a bit misleading. Buoyed by a long bull market and Republican tax cuts, the richest more than recovered financially. Median wealth for the top 10% increased nearly 27% from 2007 to 2018. Other income groups didn't do nearly as well; the lowest were stagnant until recently.
The bursting of a spectacular housing bubble triggered the recession. Recovery was slow in this critical area, too.
The proportion of homeowners who owed more on their mortgages than the value of their houses ("underwater") fell below 10% in late 2017, according to Zillow. That compared with nearly 30% in 2010. Still, 4.4 million remained underwater seven years later.
Homeownership -- the largest source of wealth for most households -- stood at 64.4% this past year. But that rate is below the 69% level of 2004. (Pricey King County's rate was about 61% in 2017, the most recent year available;
Public finances in many states were mauled by what the
"Like a family that suffered a job loss or pay cut during the recession, states missed out on billions of dollars in tax revenue," the Pew report says.
It continues, " ... even though total state tax revenue recovered nearly six years ago from its losses in the downturn, many states are still dealing with fallout from the tough choices they had to make to fill budget holes during the recession, including recent strikes by teachers who went years without pay raises, higher tuition at public universities, complaints from local governments living with less state aid, mounting repair bills for public infrastructure, and smaller state work forces."
To be fair, not all of this can be blamed on the recession and slow recovery.
For example,
Indeed, the tax-cut ideology in that red state dates back to 1991, even though the population and its costs keep rising. As a result, the commons suffer. For example,
Back to the national view: This expansion is now tied with the 1990s boom as the longest on record. At 3.6 percent in April, the national unemployment rate is the lowest since the late 1960s.
Unfortunately, the good times face that blinking red light of expiration. And one of the biggest reasons is self-inflicted wounds.
President
Worse, as the
Beyond the threat of a cold or hot war, we face the real prospect of the two largest economies on the planet "decoupling" from their long and intimate relationship, with serious consequences for both.
Trump scuttled the
Drip, drip, drip ... even with the momentum of this long expansion, even with the untrustworthy daily movements of the stock market, eventually these little leaks let in a flood. No wonder bond investors are so bearish about the short-term.
Then the question becomes whether we face a mild recession? Or something more grim.
[email protected]; on Twitter: @jontalton.
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