How the Patriots can be expected to rebuild this offseason

Feb. 14—The cupboard is bare in Foxboro.

The to-do list is long.

Outside hope is running low.

But here's the good news: the Patriots are projected to hold almost $63 million in cap space this offseason, per Over The Cap, fourth-most in the NFL. They own two picks in the top 50, including the 15th overall. How they invest these resources to restock and rebuild will remain a mystery until the free-agent offers start flying in March.

What can be said is one bad season won't upend the Pats' front-office philosophy, especially a year Bill Belichick publicly rationalized as a price paid for "selling out" the previous five. Clearly, having rolled over almost $20 million in cap room, the Patriots did not sell out in 2020. Thus, there's every reason to think the NFL's premier franchise will expect to contend in 2021.

To predict how the Pats will rebuild, it reasons to view their current needs through the prism of how they've invested cap space and draft capital in the past, specifically dating back to 2013. Why 2013?

That season essentially birthed the modern era, a time when the Patriots have thrived by adapting to a game that changed drastically on and off the field for three reasons.

1) The passing boom. In 2013, the NFL was in the midst of the boom, which began around 2007 and has slowly plateaued, with the league-wide pass rate stabilizing at 58% in recent years after a major surge last decade.

2) By 2013, NFL front offices had developed and adopted best roster-building practices around a rookie wage scale, which fundamentally changed the league when it was installed in 2012 and, with those best practices, remains in place today.

3) That season, teams played more than 50% of their offensive snaps from 11 personnel (three wideouts, one running back and one tight end). This shift quickly forced defenses to treat their fifth defensive backs as starters, and front offices to divert resources away from the defensive front to the secondary. That trend has continued, with 11 personnel usage reaching 60% each of the past three seasons, while cornerback spending has skyrocketed, even accounting for salary-cap inflation.

This eight-year period is the clearest window into Belichick's beliefs about roster-building heading into this offseason, an extension of the modern era.

Granted, the Pats' offseason priorities varied year-to-year according to roster needs and market opportunities. And yes, they most often built around Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski; players now long gone, lost to a haze of avocado tequila and post-Super Bowl euphoria.

Yet over the past eight years, the Patriots' offseason choices left patterns that revealed an outline of their roster-building philosophy; much like the NFL's passing boom and the proliferation of spread offenses reflected a league-wide embrace of analytics behind closed doors. There is a formula that drives their decision-making, Brady or no Brady.

For example, the Pats do not pay for top-end edge defenders. Since 2012, their average season ranking in edge-defender spending is 25th, having never risen higher than 18th in a single season and twice ranked 30th or worse, per Over the Cap. Last April, Josh Uche became the first Patriots edge defender selected with a top-75 pick since 2012, and he also played inside linebacker last season.

The Patriots will, however, pay for defensive backs and to retain their offensive linemen. Remember last year.

A cap-strapped Belichick doubled down on his post-Brady roster strengths — the offensive line and secondary — by re-signing Devin McCourty, adding Adrian Phillips, drafting Kyle Dugger and three O-linemen after franchise-tagging Joe Thuney. It didn't work.

The Pats' greatest weakness — a league-worst passing game — undercut their hopes of contending, just as it would any team's in the modern era. It was the return they received on investing just $3.605 million into the quarterback position, second-lowest in the NFL, and one fourth-round pick on a quarterback the previous two drafts, a pick worth 17 points, per Rich Hill's draft value chart.

(Of note: Hill's chart, an updated version of Jimmy Johnson's fame draft trade value chart, will be referenced throughout this story, and all salary cap information is courtesy of Over the Cap.)

Obviously, the Pats' level of quarterback investment will soon change. But by how much?

This is the question of the offseason, so let's start there.

Who's the quarterback?

At a time when as many as half the league's starters could change teams, it's never been more foolish to predict who will throw where next season.

A slightly more sensible ask? Picking one of three possible paths for the Patriots: trading for an established, mid-level starter (Jimmy Garoppolo or Derek Carr); pairing a fringe starter (Marcus Mariota) with a drafted rookie; or pushing all their chips in for a first-round prospect. Every elite quarterback will either be unavailable or outside the Pats' reach, given the superior asset collections boasted by other QB-needy teams like the Jets, Colts and Panthers.

To secure a blue-chip rookie, the Patriots would need to vault into the top 10, the only place on earth where starting quarterbacks are found with any regularity. And even then, it's a relative crapshoot.

The problem is the Pats all but refuse to deal future picks on draft day, and the starting offer on any trade up to No. 7 or higher would require the 15th pick, a future first or second-rounder and perhaps more, following recent draft history. Last year's trade up to select Dalton Keene in the third round marked the first time the Pats surrendered a future pick under Belichick on draft weekend — and that was a sixth-rounder. Surrendering a future first and/or second would be unprecedented, even if it might make the most sense.

Therefore, keeping all options open, we'll set aside $23 million in cap space, splitting the cost difference between acquiring Garoppolo or Carr and pairing a fringe veteran like Mariota with a top-10 rookie quarterback whose cap hit is projected to sit between $3 million and $6 million next season.

That leaves us $40 million with which to work.

How the Patriots have drafted and spent

Remember the note about edge defenders?

As much as the Patriots hate paying top dollar, they've invested more draft capital into edge defenders than all but one position since 2012, per Hill's chart. In this chart, picks have been revalued according to how teams have treated them in recent years and to reflect that compensatory picks can be dealt.

Below, I've broken down how the Patriots have invested their draft capital by position since 2012, after rounding all pick valuations to the nearest half-point.

These totals also include capital the Pats used in trades for veterans, like when they acquired Mohamed Sanu for a second-rounder later determined to be the 55th overall pick, worth 101 points. Those 101 points have been added to the wide receiver total to properly reflect the team's level of draft investment in the position, even though Sanu wasn't drafted like say, N'Keal Harry.

Pick-swap trades are also included, deals the Pats struck frequently from 2016-18, fleecing other teams by sending one draft pick in exchange for a worse selection and a veteran. The net value of those picks represents the Patriots' investment in that player and, by very rough extension, his position. To illustrate, when the Patriots acquired Danny Shelton and a fifth-round pick from Cleveland for a third-rounder in 2018, they lost 30.5 points worth of draft capital in the deal, which theoretically represented Shelton's value as a potential starting defensive tackle to their front office.

Here are the aforementioned positional draft investment rankings:

1. Defensive tackle (476.5)

2. Edge defender (400)

3. Offensive tackle (388)

4. Cornerback (382.5)

5. Wide receiver (379.5)

6. Safety (285.5)

7. Running back (256.5)

8. Interior offensive line (181)

9. Inside linebacker (152.5)

10. Quarterback (148)

11. Tight end (117)

A few notes: The Brady/Gronk effect is clear, as the Patriots invested the least capital into quarterback and tight end the past eight years. The top positions were inflated either by former first-round picks (defensive tackles Dominique Easley in 2014 and Malcom Brown in 2015) or the simple fact they're more populous. The longer a position's depth chart, the more picks it takes to fill it out.

To offset the latter, I've re-ranked all 11 positions by averaging how high rookie Patriots have been drafted at each position. This excludes capital used in trades in efforts to examine how the Pats prioritize positions on draft day.

1. Defensive tackle

2. Safety

3. Running back

4. Wide receiver

5. Offensive tackle

6. Cornerback

7. Quarterback

8. Edge rusher

9. Tight end

10. Interior offensive line

11. Inside linebacker

Again, baked into these numbers is the effect of playing most seasons with a franchise quarterback and Hall of Fame tight end already in place. It's also important to note Harry's selection in 2019 skewed the wide receiver average, which would otherwise rank dead last without him going in the first round. That said, a few things now become clear when considering total investment and average investment per pick.

When the Patriots want a safety — as seen last April with Dugger, and Duron Harmon and Jordan Richards before him — they go get him. (Not to mention former top picks Devin McCourty and Patrick Chung.) They also prize cornerbacks. And they do not put a premium on inside linebackers or interior O-linemen.

Why? Over the past three seasons, the Pats have deployed a third safety in place of an inside linebacker on most defensives snap in effort to combat spread, pass-happy offenses. They also steal linebacker snaps by coaching edge defenders — Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, and now Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings — to play inside. Traditional inside linebackers have a niche role in their modernized defensive system, where versatility means everything.

As for the O-linemen, arguably no franchise owns a better developmental track record in that area than the Patriots, who continued their good work last year despite the exit of legendary position coach Dante Scarnecchia. Sixth-round rookie Mike Onwenu is now one of the Pats' 10 best players.

There's also a cyclical element at play. Last April, the Patriots double-dipped with Day 2 edge defenders and tight ends basically because they had ignored those positions for far too long. While it remains to be seen whether any of those players have hit, it reasons the Pats will revisit other positions similarly. Which ones? More on that later.

Zooming out, all of these draft choices and trades are ultimately baked into their cap spending the past eight years, the most basic and crude accounting of what teams value based on how they build their rosters.

So, here are the Patriots' average single-season spending rankings at every position over the past eight years:

1. Safety (7th)

2. Linebacker (12th)

3. Tight end (13th)

4. Running back (13th)

5. Wide receiver (14th)

6. Quarterback (16th)

7. Cornerback (17th)

8. Offensive line (19th)

9. Defensive tackle (22nd)

10. Edge defender (25th)

Over the past five years, the Pats have increased their spending on running backs, cornerbacks and safeties, while paying significantly less for defensive tackles. Quarterbacks and tight ends experienced a massive drop-off starting in 2019, while spending on wide receivers and edge defenders has remained steady. All other positions have seen volatile year-to-year swings.

This is the eight-year backdrop of a crossroads offseason. Here's what happens next.

Whom the Patriots will likely re-sign

As mentioned, the Pats pay to retain their offensive linemen. Four of their projected starters entering last season were already on their second contract with the team, including Thuney and his franchise tag.

So step on up, David Andrews.

The Pats' starting center and offensive captain will hit free agency in March. His next projected contract should fall in the $7 million per year range, per Spotrac; perfectly within the Patriots' spending power, especially for a culture driver like Andrews who provides more than consistent on-field performance.

Defensive tackle Lawrence Guy is another captain with residual value. The Pats don't pay for interior D-linemen, but they'll be starting from ground zero up front, with Guy, Adam Butler, Deatrich Wise and Carl Davis all hitting free agency. Guy says he wants to stay in New England. Assuming there's a team-friendly deal to be struck, perhaps he lands a short-term deal worth $4-5 million per year.

Following the Patriots' recent history of paying cornerbacks, J.C. Jackson isn't going anywhere. Jackson can expect a first- or second-round tender as a restricted free agent. Last year's first-round tender cost teams just shy of $5 million.

While it might be wise for the Pats to cut back on their running back spending, it's reasonable to expect at least one of Rex Burkhead and James White to return. The Patriots are comfortable paying for veterans there, and lack capable proven third-down backs. Burkhead, following an ACL tear, would come at a discount.

Throw in a few more re-signings, to retain key backups and special teams players like Cody Davis, and the Pats' budget for outside free agents could suddenly be reduced to $30 million or less.

Where the Patriots will likely spend

If there's one position where the Pats sign an elite player at market price next month, it will be tight end.

The Patriots are clearly comfortable paying top dollar for tight ends — having retained Gronkowski while letting other elite players walk for years — and they suffered the consequences of going cheap the past two years, when they ranked dead last in tight end spending and receiving production. It's a multi-dimensional position that impacts the run and pass game, where adding elite players costs less relative to almost every other offensive position. Lastly, adding a starting-caliber player would restore proper order to the Pats' depth chart, leaving Matt LaCosse and rookies Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene to fight for spots No. 2 and 3.

The free-agent name to know is Hunter Henry.

Provided he's not tagged again by the Chargers — a real possibility — Henry would provide the all-around presence the team have lacked since Gronk. Belichick sought Henry out after the Pats obliterated the Chargers last December and showered him with praise during the game's lead-up. Other players to watch include Jonnu Smith, Jared Cook and Gerald Everett.

If the Patriots strike out, it's on to wide receivers — with a different strategy.

For starters, the Pats know their draft record with wideouts is atrocious, and they can't win in 2021 with their current crop or a new stable of rookies. Thankfully, it's a rich free-agent market, and they've shown a willingness to spend on receivers, ranking in the top half of spending six of the past seven years. Currently, they rank 21st in the league in 2021 spending on wideouts.

Except unlike tight end or safety, the Pats usually take a value approach, spreading their money across several players instead of paying for a true No. 1 wideout. Therefore, look for the Pats to target multiple secondary options like Josh Reynolds, Kendrick Bourne and/or Rishard Higgins, who should command between $5-$8 million per year and all together would cost the same price as adding Kenny Golladay.

Speaking of value approach, expect free-agent edge defenders to also draw attention from Foxboro. Baltimore's Tyus Boswer is a movable piece who fits the Patriots mold, while free-agent Jets outside linebackers Jordan Jenkins and Tarrell Basham set sturdy edges that were missing last season in New England.

Where the Patriots will likely draft

Back to the defensive line.

While it's been since 2015 the Pats invested so heavily in the position, the reasoning here is twofold: a poor free-agent market, and the cyclical nature of why they addressed tight end and edge defender last year. It's simply been too long at defensive tackle.

The Pats were literally run over at the end of last season, when they fielded the NFL's worst run defense with practice-squad players and street free agents. If there's a D-tackle available at the top of the draft who can play on all three downs, all the better. Defensive tackle may be among the least valued positions in the modern era, but the Pats don't need to pay a premium price to restore their defensive front.

Drafting a defensive lineman with their first or second-round pick would incur just a $2.1 million or $1 million cap hit in 2021, respectively, per Over the Cap's projections. A blue-chip rookie would also offer much greater upside than retaining Wise or Butler, both iffy run defenders. Hell, a third-round rookie just might, too.

In the middle rounds, the Patriots can be expected to target a pass-catching back, who would develop behind Damien Harris, one of White or Burkhead and Sony Michel, who finally showed signs of life in pass protection in Year 3. Harris, White and Shane Vereen were all homegrown backs drafted in the third or fourth round with established veterans ahead of them on the depth chart on the roster.

Cornerback is another safe bet in the early to middle rounds, given how they've weighted the position in the past. Next season, it's possible the Pats' corner depth chart could be reduced to Jonathan Jones, an untenable situation if they hope to contend. Safety, of course, is always an option — if they love one.

The great unknown

Trades and cuts.

Across the league, capped-out teams will soon be forced to cut veterans to sneak underneath the new cap, projected to be somewhere between $175 million to $180 million. Expect these teams to make calls to front offices with space, like the Patriots, hoping to receive small assets in return for cap relief instead of losing players for nothing. It's unknown who these players might be.

Whether they take calls or see cuts, the upcoming market plays into the Pats' hands because the first players to go will be middle-class veterans. These vets offer Belichick what he covets most: value.

Because even if they bomb, at least they won't sink a significant chunk of the cap with them. If they over-perform their contracts (like Van Noy, Jamie Collins), they'll let the Patriots reap Pro Bowl-caliber performances for cheap and spend the extra cap dollars elsewhere. Should these players flood the market, the Pats can rebuild sooner than most expect.

Let the bidding begin.

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