First Quarter 2024 Highlights
First Quarter 2024
Investor Presentation
Quarterly Highlights
Forward Looking Statement
In this presentation, we have included statements that may constitute "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as "estimate," "project," "plan," "believe," "anticipate," "intend," "planned," "potential" and similar expressions, or future or conditional verbs such as "will," "should," "would," "could," and "may," or the negative of those expressions or verbs, identify forward-looking statements. We caution readers that these statements are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts but instead represent only our beliefs regarding future events, which may by their nature be inherently uncertain and some of which may be outside our control. These statements may relate to plans and objectives with respect to the future, among other things which may change. We are alerting you to the possibility that our actual results may differ, possibly materially, from the expected objectives or anticipated results that may be suggested, expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause our results to differ, possibly materially, from those indicated in the forward-looking statements include, among others, those discussed under "Risk Factors" .
Any or all of management's forward-looking statements here or in other publications may tuout to be incorrect and are based on management's current belief or opinions.
Overview
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Everspan |
Cirrata |
Redgrove |
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Specialty Property |
Insurance Distribution |
Strategic Investments in Insurtech & |
Ambac |
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& |
Insurance Services |
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Insurance Distribution Segment2 |
Corporate and Other2 |
Legacy Financial Guarantee Insurance Segment2 |
Segment2 |
1.
- 2. As reported in most recent Form 10-K
Specialty P&C: A Diversified, Capital Light Specialty Platform
Ambac's growing Specialty P&C Platform includes its program insurer ("Everspan"), specialty program insurance distribution business ("Cirrata") and strategic minority investments ("Redgrove")- The growth strategy for the Specialty P&C Business is to take advantage of the rapidly expanding
U.S. program market in a capital efficient manner - Everspan's program solutions utilize Managing General Agents ("MGAs") and Managing General Underwriters ("MGUs") as its primary distribution channel
- Cirrata acquires majority stakes in MGA/MGUs and brokers, and incubates de novo MGA/MGUs
Ambac made strategic investments in several tech-enabled and other insurance distribution businesses which are complimentary and/or synergistic with our Specialty P&C operations. These investments are also expected to provide attractive returns on investment
Everspan
MGA/MGU program underwriting solutions
Specialty P&C
Platform
Creating value at every level of the MGA/MGU value chain
Cirrata
Majority stakes in MGA/MGUs and brokers
Redgrove
Minority stakes in
Insurtech and
insurance related
businesses
4
2024 Strategic Priorities
AFG |
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Cirrata |
Legacy Financial Guarantee |
- Grow and maximize shareholder value over medium and long term
- Strategically deploy capital to support and expand the Specialty P&C Platform
- Optimize the strategic value of corporate investments
Increasing Enterprise
Value
- GPW
+$400 million forecast in 20241,2 - Target Underwriting profitability
- Target mid-teens ROE at scale and over the cycle1,2
- Mid-singledigit ROE in 20241,2
Compounding Book
Value
- Premiums placed+$300 millionforecast in 20241,2
- Target
+$60 million revenue in 20241,2 - Strive for double-digit organic growth
- Target +20%EBITDA margins1
Accelerating EBITDA
Growth
Moelis & Company engaged to discuss potential transactions with interested 3rd parties- Continue to de-risk and de-lever the balance sheet
- Source of future growth capital
Maximizing Economic
Value
Delivering Long-Term Value Through Re-deployment of Capital and Profitable Growth
- Forward looking targets and projections subject to change. Targets and projections may not be realized and are not meant to provide guarantees of performance. Please refer to
Ambac's most recent quarterly and annual reports on forms 10-Q and 10-K for more information aboutAmbac's business and related risk factors - Subject to market conditions
5
Select Partnerships and Strategic Investments
Everspan
3Q21 |
1Q22 |
2Q22 |
4Q22 |
4Q22 |
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3Q22 |
4Q22 |
4Q21 |
4Q22 |
1Q23 |
1Q23 |
2Q23 |
Cirrata
Strategic Investments
4Q20 |
4Q22 |
3Q23 |
Confidential
MGA
3Q22 |
4Q22 |
4Q21 |
3Q22 |
3Q22 |
6
Projected MGA/U Growth Provides Compelling Opportunity
($bn)1
MGA Size2
2022 DPW |
YoY Growth |
Historical Trends1,2,3
• |
The MGA market nearly doubled in size between 2014-2022 |
• |
Loss ratios for MGAs are consistently lower than P&C insurance carriers |
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14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
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22.0% 25.0%
12.0%
41.0%
<
• A quarter of the premium placed by MGAs comes from small firms |
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(those with under |
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• In 2021, the U.S. market was estimated to have over 1,000 MGAs with |
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700 identified in statutory filings and another 350 estimated to fall below |
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the filing threshold |
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1. |
AM Best, Delegated Underwriting Authority Enterprise Market Review, |
2. |
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- 3. Conning, Managing General Agents: Firing on All Cylinders, www.tinyurl.com/2cnbbs8p
MGA Focused and P&C Loss Ratios by Business Line (2010-2020)2
80% |
73% 75% |
68%69% |
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60% |
60% 64% |
69% 69% |
64%64% |
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60% |
55% |
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39% |
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40% |
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29% |
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20% |
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Credit, |
Property |
Professional |
A&H |
Casualty |
Motor |
Workers |
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Surety, |
Liability |
Comp |
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Bonds |
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MGA Focused |
P&C Market |
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Rising Demand for Specialty Risk Coverage
The specialty insurance market continues to be underpinned by macroeconomic factors as alternative risks continue to grow and change
E&S Industry1 |
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17% |
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5-year CAGR |
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2022 DPW |
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The Excess & Surplus (E&S) specialty market insures difficult or high- risk exposures that traditional carriers do not cover. E&S carriers specialize in a wide range of coverages, each requiring in-depth knowledge of the line of exposure.
The evolution of the
Sweeping technological disruption
Innovation brings unforeseen challenges and risks which offer E&S specialists opportunity to develop new product lines
Heightened social inflation Legislative and litigation developments are impacting insurers' legal liabilities and claims costs resulting in taking higher rates
Large, complex and high-hazard risks
CAT weather activity above long- term averages across
Continued economic investment Infrastructure and economic stimulus is favorable for the E&S market, as large construction projects are insured by E&S providers
Increased cyber threats Prevalence of ransomware creates need for cyber insurance and enhances pricing power
1. AM Best,
8
Specialty Insurance Poised for Continued Growth
Historical E&S Trends1
- 2022 E&S direct premiums written were
$99 billion implying a CAGR of 11% since 2012 and 17% since 20171 - 2022 E&S market grew 19% vs 10% for overall P&C1
- E&S market has experienced faster growth than the standard P&C market over the last 20 years
- E&S market has been more profitable than the overall P&C market since 2012
1. AM Best,U.S. Surplus Lines Report,September 13, 2023
E&S Industry vs. P&C Industry DPW CAGRs1 |
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12% |
11% |
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10% |
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8% |
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6% |
5% |
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4% |
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2% |
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0% |
2012-2022 |
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E&S Industry |
P&C Industry |
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E&S Industry vs. P&C Industry Combined Ratio1 |
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125% |
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111% |
108% |
107%104% |
105% |
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103% |
103% |
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101% |
101% |
99% |
99% 99% |
100%99% |
100% |
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100% |
96% |
97% |
98% |
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92% |
94% |
91% |
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89% |
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75% |
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50% |
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2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
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E&S Industry |
P&C Industry |
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9
Everspan: Specialty P&C Program Insurer
Everspan has assembled a 'Best-in-Class' team of Specialty P&C program insurance executives with deep experience scaling businesses
• |
• Quarterly pre-tax profit, |
loss in 1Q23 |
• 98.4% Combined Ratio in 1Q24 vs. 121.9% in 1Q23 |
• GPW split E&S vs Admitted |
◦ 1Q24: 64% vs 36%; in 2023: 61% vs 39% |
• 22 MGA programs including 1 new program signed during |
1Q24 |
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millions)in |
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(GPW |
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Gross Premium Written (GPW) and Number of Programs
23 |
22 |
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20 |
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15 |
16 |
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1Q2023 |
2Q2023 |
3Q2023 |
4Q2023 |
1Q2024 |
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Gross Written Premiums |
Number of Programs |
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GPW by Line of Business |
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1Q2024 |
1Q2023 |
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28 |
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26 |
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24 |
(Program |
20 |
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22 |
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18 |
#) |
16 |
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14 |
• |
Shareholders' Equity: $122 million1 |
• |
Statutory Surplus: |
1. Ambac Stockholders' Equity as shown on slide 20 |
13%
8%
11%
7%
32%
12%
17%
Comm'l auto |
10% |
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2% |
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liability |
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Comm'l auto |
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physical damage |
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General liability |
10% |
61% |
Excess liability |
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Workers Compensation |
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Non-standard auto |
9% |
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Surety |
9% |
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Other
Comm'l auto liability
Comm'l auto physical damage
General liability
Excess liability
Surety
Other
10
Attachments
Disclaimer
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