EUR/USD Signal: Bearish Outlook Ahead of US NFP Data – 20 November 2025

Bearish view

-- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1450.
-- Add a stop-loss at 1.1700.
-- Timeline:1-2 days.
Bullish view

-- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1700.
-- Add a stop-loss at 1.1450
The EUR/USD exchange rate continued its freefall, moving to a low of 1.1530, down from this month's high of 1.1650. It has dropped from the year-to-date high of 1.1915.

US Jobs Data Ahead

The EUR/USD exchange rate retreated after the Federal Reserve released minutes of the last monetary policy meeting, in which officials decided to cut interest rates by 0.25%.

These minutes showed that officials did not reach this decision easily as some of them expressed concerns about the company’s inflation, which has remained at an elevated level in the past few months.

Therefore, there are concerns about whether the bank will cut interest rates in the coming meeting, as many analysts expect. Odds of a rate cut on Polymarket has jumped to 67% today from this week’s low of 50%.

The EUR/USD exchange rate will likely react to the upcoming September jobs report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This report comes two months later because of the recent government shutdown. In a major update, the BLS said that it will not publish the October jobs report.

Economists expect the upcoming report to show that the economy created 50k jobs in September, while wage growth remained at an elevated level. The upcoming labor report will not include the closely-watched unemployment rate data.

Additionally, some Federal Reserve officials like Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, and Beth Hammack talk. The US will publish other key data like existing home sales and the Philadelphia manufacturing data.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD exchange rate has remained under pressure in the past few weeks, moving from the year-to-date high of 1.1915 to the current 1.1530. It has remained below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved below the neutral level of 50 and is pointing downwards. It has also formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish reversal sign. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next key support level at 1.1450.

On the other hand, a move above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average will point to more gains, potentially to the key resistance at 1.1700.

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