The ACA's enhanced subsidies seem likely to expire. Massachusetts is beginning to notice the effects

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Now, to the news:

About that handshake deal: The head of Massachusetts' health insurance exchange is in Washington, D.C. today. The mission? Convince Congress to renew enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of the year. The chances of success? Not high. You may remember that Republican leaders promised a Senate vote on extending the subsidies as part of the deal to end the government shutdown last month. However, an actual extension is looking unlikely right now. And it appears many Bay Staters are already dropping coverage as premium spikes loom.

* Catch up: As WBUR's Priyanka Dayal McCluskey has reported, more than 300,000 people in Massachusetts who get health insurance through the state's exchange, the Health Connector, are set to see monthly premiums go up in the coming year if the subsidies aren't extended. (The Connector offers subsidized plans to people who don't get health insurance through an employer or the government, such as the self-employed and low-to-middle-income folks who earn too much for Medicaid but still need help affording insurance.) The exact increase depends on several factors, including age and income. But some — especially adults in their 50s and 60s — could see their premiums more than double.

* The latest: Open enrollment for the Health Connector began Nov. 1. And according to its executive director, Audrey Gasteier, the program saw 10,000 people drop their coverage for 2026 in the first month. "That's double the amount of people who terminated by this time last open enrollment," Gasteier told reporters yesterday at a State House press conference. "So it's certainly a signal that people are looking at these price increases and are deeply concerned." (She's expected to testify during a Senate hearing about the issue today.)

* What's happening in D.C.? The Senate is set to vote this Thursday on a Democratic proposal to extend the subsidies for three years without any changes. It's not expected to pass, due to Republican opposition. Some Republicans do favor a limited extension of the subsidies, with reforms like income caps. However, leaders of the GOP are moving forward with an alternative that does not extend the subsidies; instead it would redirect money to high deductible plans and health savings accounts for those without employer-sponsored health insurance. It also seems unlikely to pass, judging by the words of Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic minority leader, who called it "junk insurance."

* What's next: Congress faces an initial deadline of Dec. 15. That's when ACA open enrollment closes in many states for people who want coverage to start Jan. 1. (Massachusetts Health Connector enrollment runs until Dec. 23.)

* ICYMI: How did ACA subsidies intended to be temporary become something millions cannot live without? Listen to this recent episode of On Point.

Speaking of legislative standoffs: The Boston City Council is expected to vote today to lock in a 13% property tax hike for homeowners beginning in January. The vote comes as the state Senate continues to stonewall the city's home rule petition to provide residents relief by temporarily shifting more of the property tax burden onto businesses. As WBUR's Eve Zuckoff reports, that means an $780 property tax increase next year for the average single-family home owner.

* Go deeper: Evan Horowitz, the executive director of the Center for State Policy Analysis at Tufts University, joined WBUR's Morning Edition to break down the factors and choices that are driving the property tax increase.

On the campaign trail: Massachusetts Treasurer Deb Goldberg officially has a Republican challenger in next year's election. Elizabeth Dionne, a Belmont Select Board member with a background in real estate and venture capital, announced a campaign for state treasurer yesterday. WBUR's Chris Van Buskirk has more on the case Dionne will try to make against Goldberg, who is running for reelection in 2026.

P.S.— Parts of western Massachusetts could see a little snow from tonight's storm, though it will just be a cold rain in the Boston area. Check out the National Weather Service's maps for more on the expected timing and amounts.