EUR/USD Analysis: Cautious Stability Ahead of FOMC Minutes – 09 April 2025

-- Attempts at an upward rebound for the EUR/USD currency pair still lack the momentum to confirm a bullish reversal.
-- Bulls are trying to push with stability above the psychological level of 1.1000 to anticipate technical buying opportunities for the EUR/USD pair.
-- The Euro price against the US Dollar is stable around the 1.0950 level at the time of writing this analysis and ahead of the release of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC).

Why Did the Euro Rise Recently Despite Market Concerns?

According to forex trading, the EUR/USD pair is heading higher despite cautious investors awaiting clearer indications on how the European Union will respond to US tariffs. This follows two consecutive sessions of declines, driven by a broader retreat from riskier currencies amid escalating trade tensions and worsening concerns about global growth.

Prior to the start of trading this week, the European Commission revealed its proposal to the Trump administration for a zero-for-zero tariff elimination agreement in an attempt to avoid a trade war, with EU ministers agreeing to prioritize negotiations. However, Washington rejected the offer. Meanwhile, the European Commission also proposed imposing retaliatory tariffs of 25% on a range of US goods, in response to US President Donald Trump's decision last month to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium.

In another context, Beijing vowed not to succumb to what it described as US "blackmail" after President Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs of 50% on Chinese goods unless China reversed its retaliatory measures by Tuesday.

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Trading Tips:

Please consider that the upward path of the EUR/USD has many obstacles to confirm a bullish reversal. Monitor the performance-influencing factors well to anticipate the most suitable trading opportunities.

European Stock Indices Recover After Heavy Losses

During yesterday's trading session and across stock trading platforms, European stock indices rebounded after their worst four-day decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, following the imposition of US tariffs. According to trading, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 1%, driven by gains in travel and leisure and industrial stocks, as well as a rebound in defence stocks. In contrast, telecommunications, utilities, and real estate stocks, which represent bond agents, lagged. The Greek stock market was the best performing global market outside Japan.

Among individual stock movers, Infineon Technologies AG shares fell by 3.1% after the semiconductor maker agreed to buy Marvell Technology's automotive networking business for $2.5 billion in cash. Pandora A/S shares also declined by 3.6% after JPMorgan downgraded the jewellery maker, as tariffs cloud the outlook for the luxury goods sector.

Overall, the market turmoil caused by Trump's sweeping tariffs has wiped out about $1.7 trillion in European benchmarks over the past three sessions, leaving the index firmly in negative territory for the year. The STOXX 600's 14-day relative strength index is trading well below 30, indicating oversold territory.

Generally, Trump appears determined to push ahead with his agenda despite warnings from top Wall Street executives. This week, the US president threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China due to Beijing's escalation and to end all talks with the country. In response, EU trade ministers have expressed their willingness to use a full range of countermeasures, including potential taxes on digital companies, in response to Trump's tariffs.

Overall, the concern is that an escalating trade war could push the US economy into recession, with cyclical sectors such as energy, banking, and financial services bearing the brunt of the losses in Europe. Investors are trying to assess whether the market has bottomed or should prepare for further suffering.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

According to the performance on the daily chart, the EUR/USD currency pair is still at the beginning of a bullish reversal. On the daily chart, bulls need to push towards higher peaks for confirmation, and the most likely move for the EUR/USD price is towards the resistance levels of 1.1020 and 1.1150, respectively. As I mentioned before, from the last and highest level, technical indicators, led by the MACD and RSI, will begin to move towards strong overbought levels. Conversely, on the same time frame, the support level of 1.0880 will remain a threat to the current bullish reversal.

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