ESSENT GROUP LTD. – 10-K – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The following discussion should be read in conjunction with the "Selected Financial Data" and our financial statements and related notes thereto included elsewhere in this report. In addition to historical information, this discussion contains forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from management's expectations. Factors that could cause such differences are discussed in the sections entitled "Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors." We are not undertaking any obligation to update any forward-looking statements or other statements we may make in the following discussion or elsewhere in this document even though these statements may be affected by events or circumstances occurring after the forward-looking statements or other statements were made.
Overview
We are an established private mortgage insurance company.Essent Guaranty, Inc. , our wholly-owned insurance subsidiary which we refer to as "Essent Guaranty ," is licensed to write coverage in all 50 states and theDistrict of Columbia . The financial strength ratings ofEssent Guaranty are A3 with a stable outlook by Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's"), BBB+ with a stable outlook byS&P Global Ratings ("S&P") and A (Excellent) with a stable outlook byA.M. Best . Our holding company is domiciled inBermuda and ourU.S. insurance business is headquartered inRadnor, Pennsylvania . We operate an additional underwriting and service center inWinston-Salem, North Carolina . We have a highly experienced, talented team with 346 employees as ofDecember 31, 2022 . For the years endedDecember 31, 2022 , 2021 and 2020, we generated new insurance written, or NIW, of approximately$63.1 billion ,$84.2 billion and$107.9 billion , respectively. As ofDecember 31, 2022 , we had approximately$227.1 billion of insurance in force. Our top ten customers represented approximately 39.9%, 41.6% and 35.8% of our NIW on a flow basis for the years endedDecember 31, 2022 , 2021 and 2020, respectively. We also offer mortgage-related insurance and reinsurance through our wholly-ownedBermuda -based subsidiary,Essent Reinsurance Ltd. , which we refer to as "Essent Re." As ofDecember 31, 2022 , Essent Re provided insurance or reinsurance relating to GSE risk share and other reinsurance transactions covering approximately$2.0 billion of risk. Essent Re also reinsuresEssent Guaranty's NIW under a quota share reinsurance agreement. InApril 2021 ,Essent Guaranty and Essent Re agreed to increase the quota share reinsurance coverage ofEssent Guaranty's NIW provided by Essent Re from 25% to 35% effectiveJanuary 1, 2021 . The quota share reinsurance coverage provided by Essent Re forEssent Guaranty's NIW prior toJanuary 1, 2021 will continue to be 25%, the quota share percentage in effect at the time NIW was first ceded. The insurer financial strength ratings of Essent Re are BBB+ with a stable outlook by S&P and A (Excellent) with a stable outlook byA.M. Best .
COVID-19
Due to the novel coronavirus disease 2019 ("COVID-19"), we experienced a
significant increase in the amount of new defaults reported in 2020, especially
during the second and third quarters of 2020. We segmented these two quarters'
49,398 defaults as specifically COVID-19 related ("Early COVID Defaults") and
provided losses for these two cohorts differently as compared to our normal loss
reserving methodology. The default-to-claim transition patterns of the Early
COVID Defaults have been different than our historical defaults. We believe that
the borrowers associated with the Early COVID Defaults have been able to take
advantage of foreclosure moratoriums and mortgage forbearance programs
instituted by Federal legislation along with actions taken by the Federal
Housing Finance Agency ("FHFA"), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (collectively the
"GSEs") which has extend traditional default-to-claim timelines. As a result of
these programs, along with Federal stimulus, these borrowers associated with the
Early COVID Defaults have had more resources and an extended time period to
address the issues that triggered the default, that we believe will result in a
higher cure rate, and correspondingly lower claim payments than historical
defaults.
Over 90% of loans insured by Essent are federally backed by Fannie Mae or
Freddie Mac. As a mortgage loan in forbearance is considered delinquent, we will
provide loss reserves as loans in forbearance are reported to us as delinquent
once the borrower has missed two consecutive payments. However, we believe
providing borrowers time to recover from the adverse financial impact of the
COVID-19 event may allow some families to be able to remain in their homes and
avoid foreclosure.
As of December 31, 2022 , approximately 99% of the Early COVID Defaults had
cured. While this level of cure activity exceeded our initial expectations for
the Early COVID Defaults, the transition of defaults to foreclosure or claim has
not returned to pre-pandemic levels. As a result, the level of defaults in the
default inventory that have missed twelve or more payments is above pre-pandemic
levels.
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Current Economic Developments
The economy inthe United States is currently experiencing elevated levels of consumer price inflation. TheFederal Reserve has increased the target federal funds rate several times during 2022 in an effort to reduce consumer price inflation. These rate increases have resulted in higher mortgage interest rates which may lower home sale activity and affect the options available to delinquent borrowers. The impact on our reserves in future periods will be dependent upon the amount of delinquent notices received from loan servicers and our expectations for the amount of ultimate losses on these delinquencies. As noted in "- Liquidity and Capital Resources,"Essent had substantial liquidity and had Available Assets in excess of Minimum Required Assets under PMIERs 2.0 as ofDecember 31, 2022 . Future increases in defaults may result in an increase in our provisions for loss and loss adjustment expenses compared to prior periods, reduced profit commission under our quota share reinsurance agreements with panels of third-party reinsurers ("the QSR Agreements") and an increase in our Minimum Required Assets.
Legislative and Regulatory Developments
Our results are significantly impacted by, and our future success may be
affected by, legislative and regulatory developments affecting the housing
finance industry. Key regulatory and legislative developments that may affect us
include:
Housing Finance, GSE Reform and GSE Qualified Mortgage Insurer Requirements
Because a substantial majority of our current and expected future business is the provision of mortgage insurance on loans sold to the GSEs, changes to the business practices of the GSEs or any regulation relating to the GSEs may impact our business and our results of operations. TheFederal Housing Finance Agency ("FHFA") is the regulator and conservator of the GSEs with authority to control and direct their operations. The FHFA has directed, and is likely to continue to direct, changes to the business operations of the GSEs in ways that affect the mortgage insurance industry. It is likely that Federal legislation will be necessary to resolve the conservatorship of the GSEs, and such legislation could materially affect the role and charter of the GSEs and the operation of the housing finance system. In 2011, theU.S. Department of the Treasury recommended options for winding down the GSEs and using a combination of Federal housing policy changes to contract the government's footprint in housing finance and restore a larger role for private capital. Since 2011, members ofCongress have introduced several bills intended to reform the secondary market and the role of the GSEs, although no comprehensive housing finance or GSE reform legislation has been enacted to date. Any changes to the charters or statutory authorities of the GSEs would require Congressional action to implement.Congress , however, has not enacted any legislation to date. See "Business-Regulation-Federal Mortgage-Related Laws and Regulations-Housing Finance Reform," "Risk Factors-Risks Relating to Regulation and Litigation-Legislative or regulatory actions or decisions to change the role of the GSEs in theU.S. housing market generally, or changes to the charters of the GSEs with regard to the use of credit enhancements generally and private mortgage insurance specifically, could reduce our revenues or adversely affect our profitability and returns," and "-Changes in the business practices of the GSEs, including actions or decisions to decrease or discontinue the use of mortgage insurance or changes in the GSEs' eligibility requirements for mortgage insurers, could reduce our revenues or adversely affect our profitability and returns." Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, maintain coordinated Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements, which we refer to as the "PMIERs." The PMIERs represent the standards by which private mortgage insurers are eligible to provide mortgage insurance on loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The PMIERs include financial strength requirements incorporating a risk-based framework that require approved insurers to have a sufficient level of liquid assets from which to pay claims. The PMIERs also include enhanced operational performance expectations and define remedial actions that apply should an approved insurer fail to comply with these requirements. As ofDecember 31, 2022 ,Essent Guaranty , our GSE-approved mortgage insurance company, was in compliance with the PMIERs.
Dodd-Frank Act
Various regulatory agencies have produced, and are now in the process of
developing additional, new rules under the Dodd-Frank Act that are expected to
have a significant impact on the housing finance industry, including the
Qualified Mortgage, or QM, definition and the risk retention requirement and
related Qualified Residential Mortgage, or QRM, definition.
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QM Definition
Under the Dodd-Frank Act, theConsumer Financial Protection Bureau , orCFPB , is authorized to issue regulations governing a loan originator's determination that, at the time a loan is originated, the consumer has a reasonable ability to repay the loan. The Dodd-Frank Act provides a statutory presumption that a borrower will have the ability to repay a loan if the loan has characteristics satisfying the QM definition. Under theCFPB's final rule regarding QMs, which we refer to as the "QM Rule," a loan is deemed to be a QM if it has certain loan features, satisfies extensive documentation requirements and meets limitations on fees and points and APRs. Under the QM Rule, a loan receives a conclusive presumption that the consumer had the ability to repay if the annual percentage rate does not exceed the average prime offer rate (APOR) for a comparable transaction by 1.5 percentage points or more as of the date the interest rate is set. A loan receives a rebuttable presumption that the consumer had the ability to repay if the annual percentage rate exceeds the average prime offer rate for a comparable transaction by 1.5 percentage points or more but by less than 2.25 percentage points. We expect that most lenders will be reluctant to make non-QM loans because they will not be entitled to the presumption against civil liability under the Dodd-Frank Act, and mortgage investors may be reluctant to purchase mortgages or mortgage-backed securities that are not QMs due to potential assignee liability for such loans. As a result, we believe that the QM regulations have a direct impact on establishing a subset of borrowers who can meet the regulatory standards and directly affect the willingness of lenders and mortgage investors to extend mortgage credit and therefore the size of the residential mortgage market. To the extent the use of private mortgage insurance causes a loan not to meet the definition of a QM, the volume of loans originated with mortgage insurance may decline. In addition, the impact of the mortgage insurance premiums on the calculation of points and fees for purposes of QM may influence the use of mortgage insurance, as well as our mix of premium plans and therefore our profitability. See "-Factors Affecting Our Results of Operations-Persistency and Business Mix" and "Risk Factors-Risks Relating to Regulation and Litigation-Our business prospects and operating results could be adversely impacted if, and to the extent that, theConsumer Financial Protection Bureau's ("CFPB") rule defining a qualified mortgage ("QM") reduces the size of the origination market or creates incentives to use government mortgage insurance programs."
Risk Retention Requirements and QRM Definition
The Dodd-Frank Act provides for an originator or issuer risk retention
requirement on securitized mortgage loans that do not meet the definition of a
QRM. The QRM regulations align the definition of a QRM loan with that of a QM
loan. If, however, the QRM definition is changed (or the QM definition is
amended) in a manner that is unfavorable to us, such as to give no consideration
to mortgage insurance in computing LTV or to require a large down payment for a
loan to qualify as a QRM, the attractiveness of originating and securitizing
loans with lower down payments may be reduced, which may adversely affect the
future demand for mortgage insurance. See "Business-Regulation-Federal
Mortgage-Related Laws and Regulation-Dodd-Frank Act-Qualified Residential
Mortgage Regulations-Risk Retention Requirements" and "Risk Factors-Risks
Relating to Our Business-The amount of insurance we write could be adversely
affected by the Dodd-Frank Act's risk retention requirements and the definition
of Qualified Residential Mortgage ("QRM")."
FHA Reform
We compete with the single-family mortgage insurance programs of the FHA, which is part of theDepartment of Housing and Urban Development . The most recent FHA report toCongress datedNovember 15, 2022 on the financial status of theFHA's Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund , or MMIF, showed the capital reserve ratio of the MMIF at 11.1%, above the Congressionally mandated required minimum level of 2%. See "Risk Factors-Risks Relating to the Operation of Our Business-The amount of insurance we may be able to write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance."
Tax Reform
The U.S. Internal Revenue Service and Department of the Treasury published both final and newly proposed regulations inJanuary 2021 relating to the tax treatment of passive foreign investment companies ("PFICs"). The final regulations provide guidance on various PFIC rules, including changes resulting from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. In addition, the Company is evaluating the potential impact of the newly proposed PFIC regulations to its shareholders and business operations. The newly proposed regulations, among other provisions, set a limit on the amount of assets that may be deemed "non-passive assets" within the PFIC asset test of a foreign holding company. See "Risk Factors-Risks Relating to Taxes and our Corporate Structure-U.S. Persons who hold our shares will be subject to adverse tax consequences if we are considered to be a passive foreign investment company ("PFIC") forU.S. Federal income tax purposes." 55 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OnAugust 16, 2022 , the "Inflation Reduction Act of 2022" ("IRA"), was enacted, which, among other things, provides for a corporate alternative minimum tax and an excise tax on corporate stock repurchases. Based on our current analysis of the provisions, we do not expect the IRA to have a material impact on our financial position or results of operations. As theIRS issues additional guidance related to the IRA, we will evaluate any potential impact to our consolidated financial statements.
Factors Affecting Our Results of Operations
Net Premiums Written and Earned
Premiums associated with ourU.S. mortgage insurance business are based on insurance in force, or IIF, during all or a portion of a period. A change in the average IIF during a period causes premiums to increase or decrease as compared to prior periods. Average net premium rates in effect during a given period will also cause premiums to differ when compared to earlier periods. IIF at the end of a reporting period is a function of the IIF at the beginning of such reporting period plus NIW less policy cancellations (including claims paid) during the period. As a result, premiums are generally influenced by: •NIW, which is the aggregate principal amount of the new mortgages that are insured during a period. Many factors affect NIW, including, among others, the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations, the competition to provide credit enhancement on those mortgages, the number of customers who have approved us to provide mortgage insurance and changes in our NIW from certain customers; •Cancellations of our insurance policies, which are impacted by payments on mortgages, home price appreciation, or refinancings, which in turn are affected by mortgage interest rates. Cancellations are also impacted by the levels of claim payments and rescissions; •Premium rates, which represent the amount of the premium due as a percentage of IIF. Premium rates are based on the risk characteristics of the loans insured, the percentage of coverage on the loans, competition from other mortgage insurers and general industry conditions; and
•Premiums ceded or assumed under reinsurance arrangements. See Note 5 to our
consolidated financial statements.
Premiums are paid either on a monthly installment basis ("monthly premiums"), in
a single payment at origination ("single premiums"), or in some cases as an
annual premium. For monthly premiums, we receive a monthly premium payment which
is recorded as net premiums earned in the month the coverage is provided.
Monthly premium payments are based on the original mortgage amount rather than
the amortized loan balance. Net premiums written may be in excess of net
premiums earned due to single premium policies. For single premiums, we receive
a single premium payment at origination, which is recorded as "unearned premium"
and earned over the estimated life of the policy, which ranges from 36 to
156 months depending on the term of the underlying mortgage and loan-to-value
ratio at date of origination. If single premium policies are cancelled due to
repayment of the underlying loan and the premium is non-refundable, the
remaining unearned premium balance is immediately recognized as earned premium
revenue. Substantially all of our single premium policies in force as of
December 31, 2022 were non-refundable. Premiums collected on annual policies are
recognized as net premiums earned on a straight-line basis over the year of
coverage. For the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, monthly premium
policies comprised 94% and 96% of our NIW, respectively.
Premiums associated with our GSE and other risk share transactions are based on
the level of risk in force and premium rates on the transactions.
Persistency and Business Mix
The percentage of IIF that remains on our books after any 12-month period is defined as our persistency rate. Because our insurance premiums are earned over the life of a policy, higher persistency rates can have a significant impact on our profitability. The persistency rate on our portfolio was 82.1% atDecember 31, 2022 . Generally, higher prepayment speeds lead to lower persistency. Prepayment speeds and the relative mix of business between single premium policies and monthly premium policies also impact our profitability. Our premium rates include certain assumptions regarding repayment or prepayment speeds of the mortgages. Because premiums are paid at origination on single premium policies, assuming all other factors remain constant, if loans are prepaid earlier than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to increase and, if loans are repaid slower than expected, our profitability on these loans is likely to decrease. By contrast, if monthly premium loans are repaid earlier than 56 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
anticipated, our premium earned with respect to those loans and therefore our
profitability declines. Currently, the expected return on single premium
policies is less than the expected return on monthly policies.
Net Investment Income
Our investment portfolio was predominantly comprised of investment-grade fixed income securities and money market funds as ofDecember 31, 2022 . The principal factors that influence investment income are the size of the investment portfolio and the yield on individual securities. As measured by amortized cost (which excludes changes in fair market value, such as from changes in interest rates), the size of our investment portfolio is mainly a function of increases in capital and cash generated from or used in operations which is impacted by net premiums received, investment earnings, net claim payments and expenses. Realized gains and losses are a function of the difference between the amount received on the sale of a security and the security's amortized cost, as well as any provision for credit losses or impairments recognized in earnings. The amount received on the sale of fixed income securities is affected by the coupon rate of the security compared to the yield of comparable securities at the time of sale.
Income from Other Invested Assets
As part of our overall investment strategy, we also allocate a relatively small percentage of our portfolio to limited partnership investments in real estate, consumer credit and traditional venture capital and private equity investments. The results of these investing activities are reported in income from other invested assets. These investments are generally accounted for under the equity method or fair value using net asset value (or its equivalent) as a practical expedient. For entities accounted for under the equity method that follow industry-specific guidance for investment companies, our proportionate share of earnings or losses includes changes in the fair value of the underlying assets of these entities. Fluctuations in the fair value of these entities may increase the volatility of the Company's reported results of operations.
Other Income
Other income includes revenues associated with contract underwriting services and underwriting consulting services to third-party reinsurers. The level of contract underwriting revenue is dependent upon the number of customers who have engaged us for this service and the number of loans underwritten for these customers. Revenue from underwriting consulting services to third-party reinsurers is dependent upon the number of customers who have engaged us for this service and the level of premiums associated with the transactions underwritten for these customers. In connection with the acquisition of our mortgage insurance platform, we entered into a services agreement with Triad Guaranty Inc. and its wholly-owned subsidiary,Triad Guaranty Insurance Corporation , which we refer to collectively as "Triad," to provide certain information technology maintenance and development and customer support-related services. In return for these services, we receive a flat monthly fee which is recorded in other income. During 2022, Triad exercised its one year renewal option extending the services agreement throughNovember 2023 .
As more fully described in Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements, the
premiums ceded under certain reinsurance contracts with unaffiliated third
parties varies based on changes in market interest rates. Under GAAP, these
contracts contain embedded derivatives that are accounted for separately as
freestanding derivatives. The change in the fair value of the embedded
derivatives is reported in earnings and included in other income.
Provision for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
The provision for losses and loss adjustment expenses reflects the current
expense that is recorded within a particular period to reflect actual and
estimated loss payments that we believe will ultimately be made as a result of
insured loans that are in default.
Losses incurred are generally affected by:
•the overall state of the economy, which broadly affects the likelihood that
borrowers may default on their loans and have the ability to cure such defaults;
•changes in housing values, which affect our ability to mitigate our losses
through the sale of properties with loans in default as well as borrower
willingness to continue to make mortgage payments when the value of the home is
below or perceived to be below the mortgage balance;
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•the product mix of IIF, with loans having higher risk characteristics generally
resulting in higher defaults and claims;
•the size of loans insured, with higher average loan amounts tending to increase
losses incurred;
•the loan-to-value ratio, with higher average loan-to-value ratios tending to
increase losses incurred;
•the percentage of coverage on insured loans, with deeper average coverage
tending to increase losses incurred;
•credit quality of borrowers, including higher debt-to-income ratios and lower
FICO scores, which tend to increase incurred losses;
•the level and amount of reinsurance coverage maintained with third parties;
•the rate at which we rescind policies. Because of tighter underwriting standards generally in the mortgage lending industry and terms set forth in our master policy, we expect that our level of rescission activity will be lower than rescission activity seen in the mortgage insurance industry for vintages originated prior to the financial crisis; and •the distribution of claims over the life of a book. As ofDecember 31, 2022 , 84% of our IIF relates to business written sinceJanuary 1, 2020 and was less than three years old. As a result, based on historical industry performance, we expect the number of defaults and claims we experience, as well as our provision for losses and loss adjustment expenses ("LAE"), to increase as our portfolio seasons. See "-Mortgage Insurance Earnings and Cash Flow Cycle" below. We establish loss reserves for delinquent loans when we are notified that a borrower has missed at least two consecutive monthly payments ("Case Reserves"), as well as estimated reserves for defaults that may have occurred but not yet been reported to us ("IBNR Reserves"). We also establish reserves for the associated loss adjustment expenses, consisting of the estimated cost of the claims administration process, including legal and other fees. Using both internal and external information, we establish our reserves based on the likelihood that a default will reach claim status and estimated claim severity. See "-Critical Accounting Policies" for further information. Based upon our experience and industry data, claims incidence for mortgage insurance is generally highest in the third through sixth years after loan origination. Claims incidence for defaults associated with COVID-19 may not follow this pattern. As ofDecember 31, 2022 , 84% of our IIF relates to business written sinceJanuary 1, 2020 and was less than three years old. Although the claims experience on new insurance written by us to date has been favorable, we expect incurred losses and claims to increase as a greater amount of this book of insurance reaches its anticipated period of highest claim frequency. The actual default rate and the average reserve per default that we experience as our portfolio matures is difficult to predict and is dependent on the specific characteristics of our current in-force book (including the credit score of the borrower, the loan-to-value ratio of the mortgage, geographic concentrations, etc.), as well as the profile of new business we write in the future. In addition, the default rate and the average reserve per default will be affected by future macroeconomic factors such as housing prices, interest rates and employment. Due to business restrictions, stay-at-home orders and travel restrictions initially implemented inMarch 2020 as a result of COVID-19, unemployment inthe United States increased significantly in the second quarter of 2020, declining during the second half of 2020 through 2022. As unemployment is one of the most common reasons for borrowers to default on their mortgage, the increase in unemployment has increased the number of delinquencies on the mortgages we insure, and has the potential to increase claim frequencies on defaults. As a result, we received 36,784 defaults in the three months endedJune 30, 2020 and 12,614 defaults in the three months endedSeptember 30, 2020 , which resulted in a significant increase in our default rate from 0.83% atMarch 31, 2020 to 4.54% atSeptember 30, 2020 . In response to the COVID-19 pandemic,the United States government enacted a number of policies to provide fiscal stimulus to the economy and relief to those affected by this global disaster. Specifically, mortgage forbearance programs and foreclosure moratoriums were instituted by Federal legislation along with actions taken by FHFA and the GSEs. The mortgage forbearance plans permit these borrowers to temporarily reduce or suspend their mortgage payments for up to 18 months for loans in an active COVID-19-related forbearance program as ofFebruary 28, 2021 . For borrowers that have the ability to begin to pay their mortgage at the end of the forbearance period, we expect that mortgage servicers will continue to work with them to modify their loans at which time the mortgage will be removed from delinquency status. We believe that the forbearance process could have a favorable effect on the frequency of claims that we ultimately pay. Based on the forbearance programs in place and the credit characteristics of the Early COVID Defaults, we believe that the ultimate number of Early COVID Defaults that result in claims will be less than our historical default-to-claim experience. Accordingly, we applied a lower reserve rate to 58 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
the Early COVID Defaults than the rate used for defaults that had missed a
comparable number of payments as of
not have access to forbearance plans.
The defaulted loans reported to us in the second and third quarters of 2020 had reached the end of their forbearance periods as ofMarch 31, 2022 . During the first quarter of 2022, the Early COVID Defaults cured at elevated levels, and the cumulative cure rate for the Early COVID Defaults atMarch 31, 2022 exceeded our initial estimated cure rate implied by our estimate of ultimate loss for these defaults established at the onset of the pandemic. Based on cure activity throughMarch 31, 2022 and our expectations for future cure activity, as ofMarch 31, 2022 , we lowered our estimate of ultimate loss for the Early COVID Defaults. During the three months endedJune 30, 2022 , Early COVID Defaults cured at levels that exceeded our estimate as ofMarch 31, 2022 , and we further lowered our estimate of loss for these defaults as ofJune 30, 2022 to 2% of the initial risk in force. These revisions to our estimate of ultimate loss for the Early COVID Defaults resulted in a benefit recorded to the provision for losses of$164.1 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 . As ofDecember 31, 2022 , approximately 99% of the Early COVID Defaults had cured. Due to the level of Early COVID Defaults remaining in the default inventory, beginning in the third quarter of 2022, we resumed reserving for the Early COVID Defaults using our normal reserve methodology. While the level of cure activity for the Early COVID Defaults exceeded our initial expectations, the transition of defaults to foreclosure or claim has not returned to pre-pandemic levels as ofDecember 31, 2022 . As a result, the level of defaults in the default inventory that have missed twelve or more payments is above pre-pandemic levels. The economy inthe United States is currently experiencing elevated levels of consumer price inflation. TheFederal Reserve has increased the target federal funds rate several times during 2022 in an effort to reduce consumer price inflation. These rate increases have resulted in higher mortgage interest rates which may lower home sale activity and affect the options available to delinquent borrowers. It is reasonably possible that our estimate of losses could change in the near term as a result of changes in the economic environment, the impact of elevated levels of consumer price inflation on home sale activity, housing inventory, and home prices. InSeptember 2022 , Hurricane Ian made landfall inFlorida and caused property damage in certain counties. There are many factors contributing to the uncertainty surrounding these insured loans. Under our master policy, loan servicers are not required to notify us of a default until the borrower has missed two consecutive minimum payments. Also, the level of damage being reported in these areas varies significantly from region to region. Further, under our master policy, our exposure may be limited on hurricane-related claims. For example, we are permitted to exclude a claim entirely where estimated restoration costs from damage to the property underlying a mortgage equal 20% or more of the property's original value and adjust a claim where the property underlying a mortgage in default is subject to unrestored physical damage. This event has not materially affected our reserves as ofDecember 31, 2022 . As more fully described in Note 5 to our condensed consolidated financial statements, atDecember 31,2022 , we had approximately$2.5 billion of excess of loss reinsurance covering NIW fromJanuary 1, 2015 toDecember 31, 2022 and quota share reinsurance on portions of our NIW effectiveSeptember 1, 2019 throughDecember 31, 2020 andJanuary 1, 2022 throughDecember 31, 2022 . The impact on our reserves in future periods will be dependent upon the amount of delinquent notices received from loan servicers, the performance of defaults and our expectations for the amount of ultimate losses on these delinquencies.
Third-Party Reinsurance
We use third-party reinsurance to provide protection against adverse loss
experience and to expand our capital sources. When we enter into a reinsurance
agreement, the reinsurer receives a premium and, in exchange, agrees to insure
an agreed upon portion of incurred losses. These arrangements have the impact of
reducing our earned premiums, but also reduce our risk in force ("RIF"), which
provides capital relief, and may include capital relief under the PMIERs
financial strength requirements. Our incurred losses are reduced by any incurred
losses ceded in accordance with the reinsurance agreement. For additional
information regarding reinsurance, see Note 5 to our consolidated financial
statements.
Other Underwriting and Operating Expenses
Our other underwriting and operating expenses include components that are
substantially fixed, as well as expenses that generally increase or decrease in
line with the level of NIW.
Our most significant expense is compensation and benefits for our employees, which represented 59%, 61% and 60% of other underwriting and operating expenses for the years endedDecember 31, 2022 , 2021 and 2020, respectively. Compensation and benefits expense includes base and incentive cash compensation, stock compensation expense, benefits and payroll taxes. 59 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Underwriting and other expenses include legal, consulting, other professional fees, premium taxes, travel, entertainment, marketing, licensing, supplies, hardware, software, rent, utilities, depreciation and amortization and other expenses. We anticipate that as we continue to add new customers and increase our IIF, our expenses will also continue to increase.
Interest Expense
Interest expense is incurred as a result of borrowings under our secured credit facility (the "Credit Facility"). Borrowings under the Credit Facility may be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, including, without limitation, capital contributions toEssent's insurance and reinsurance subsidiaries. Borrowings accrue interest at a floating rate tied to a standard short-term borrowing index, selected at the Company's option, plus an applicable margin. Income Taxes Income taxes are incurred based on the amount of earnings or losses generated in the jurisdictions in which we operate and the applicable tax rates and regulations in those jurisdictions. OurU.S. insurance subsidiaries are generally not subject to income taxes in most states in which we operate; however, our non-insurance subsidiaries are subject to state income taxes. In lieu of state income taxes, our insurance subsidiaries pay premium taxes that are recorded in other underwriting and operating expenses.Essent Group Ltd. ("Essent Group ") and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Essent Re, are domiciled inBermuda , which does not have a corporate income tax. Under a quota share reinsurance agreement, Essent Re reinsures 25% ofEssent Guaranty's NIW throughDecember 31, 2020 and 35% ofEssent Guaranty's NIW afterDecember 31, 2020 . Essent Re also provides insurance and reinsurance to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
The amount of income tax expense or benefit recorded in future periods will be
dependent on the jurisdictions in which we operate and the tax laws and
regulations in effect.
Mortgage Insurance Earnings and Cash Flow Cycle
In general, the majority of any underwriting profit (premium revenue minus losses) that a book generates occurs in the early years of the book, with the largest portion of any underwriting profit realized in the first year. Subsequent years of a book generally result in modest underwriting profit or underwriting losses. This pattern generally occurs because relatively few of the claims that a book will ultimately experience typically occur in the first few years of the book, when premium revenue is highest, while subsequent years are affected by declining premium revenues, as the number of insured loans decreases (primarily due to loan prepayments), and by increasing losses.
Key Performance Indicators
Insurance In Force
As discussed above, premiums we collect and earn are generated based on our IIF, which is a function of our NIW and cancellations. The following table includes a summary of the change in our IIF for the years endedDecember 31, 2022 , 2021 and 2020 for ourU.S. mortgage insurance portfolio. In addition, this table includes our RIF at the end of each period. Year Ended December 31, ($ in thousands) 2022 2021 2020 IIF, beginning of period$ 207,190,544 $ 198,882,352 $ 164,005,853 NIW 63,061,262 84,218,250 107,944,065 Cancellations (43,189,751) (75,910,058) (73,067,566) IIF, end of period$ 227,062,055 $ 207,190,544 $ 198,882,352 Average IIF during the period$ 215,485,518 $ 202,890,292 $ 178,294,034 RIF, end of period$ 49,903,626 $ 45,273,383 $ 41,339,262 60
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The following is a summary of our IIF at
($ in thousands) $ %
2022 60,609,538 26.7 %
2021 71,533,601 31.5
2020 59,228,334 26.1
2019 14,742,465 6.5
2018 6,714,277 3.0
2017 and prior 14,233,841 6.2
$ 227,062,055 100.0 %
Average Net Premium Rate
Our average net premium rate is calculated by dividing net premiums earned for
the U.S. mortgage insurance portfolio by average insurance in force for the
period and is dependent on a number of factors, including: (1) the risk
characteristics and average coverage on the mortgages we insure; (2) the mix of
monthly premiums compared to single premiums in our portfolio; (3) cancellations
of non-refundable single premiums during the period; (4) changes to our pricing
for NIW; and (5) premiums ceded under third-party reinsurance agreements. The
following table presents the average net premium rate for our U.S. mortgage
insurance portfolio:
Year Ended December 31,
2022 2021 2020
Base average premium rate 0.41 % 0.43 % 0.46 %
Single premium cancellations 0.01 0.03 0.05
Gross average premium rate 0.42 0.46 0.51
Ceded premiums (0.05) (0.05) (0.05)
Net average premium rate 0.37 % 0.41 % 0.46 %
We anticipate that the continued use of third-party reinsurance along with
changes to the level of future cancellations of non-refundable single premium
policies and mix of IIF will reduce our average net premium rate in future
periods.
Persistency Rate
The measure for assessing the impact of policy cancellations on IIF is our persistency rate, defined as the percentage of IIF that remains on our books after any twelve-month period. See additional discussion regarding the impact of the persistency rate on our performance in "-Factors Affecting Our Results of Operations-Persistency and Business Mix."
The risk-to-capital ratio has historically been used as a measure of capital adequacy in theU.S. mortgage insurance industry and is calculated as a ratio of net risk in force to statutory capital. Net risk in force represents total risk in force net of reinsurance ceded and net of exposures on policies for which loss reserves have been established. Statutory capital for ourU.S. insurance companies is computed based on accounting practices prescribed or permitted by thePennsylvania Insurance Department . See additional discussion in "-Liquidity and Capital Resources-Insurance Company Capital ." As ofDecember 31, 2022 , our combined net risk in force for ourU.S. insurance companies was$32.3 billion and our combined statutory capital was$3.2 billion , resulting in a risk-to-capital ratio of 10.2 to 1. The amount of capital required varies in each jurisdiction in which we operate; however, generally, the maximum permitted risk-to-capital ratio is 25.0 to 1. State insurance regulators are currently examining their respective capital rules to determine whether, in light of the financial crisis, changes are needed to more accurately assess mortgage insurers' ability to withstand stressful economic conditions. As a result, the capital metrics under which they assess and measure capital adequacy may change in the future. Independent of the state regulator and GSE capital requirements, management continually assesses the risk of our insurance portfolio and current market and economic conditions to determine the appropriate levels of capital to support our business. 61 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Results of Operations
The following table sets forth our results of operations for the periods
indicated:
Year Ended December 31,
Summary of Operations
(In thousands) 2022 2021 2020
Revenues:
Net premiums written $ 820,029 $ 807,492 $ 834,113
Decrease in unearned premiums 22,498 65,051 28,451
Net premiums earned 842,527 872,543 862,564
Net investment income 124,409 88,765 80,087
Realized investment (losses) gains, net (13,172) 418
2,697
Income (loss) from other invested assets 28,676 56,386 (215) Other income 18,384 10,398 10,021 Total revenues 1,000,824 1,028,510 955,154 Losses and expenses: (Benefit) provision for losses and LAE (174,704) 31,057
301,293
Other underwriting and operating expenses 171,733 166,857
154,691 Interest expense 15,608 8,282 9,074 Total losses and expenses 12,637 206,196 465,058 Income before income taxes 988,187 822,314 490,096 Income tax expense 156,834 140,531 77,055 Net income$ 831,353 $ 681,783 $ 413,041
Year Ended
For the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , we reported net income of$831.4 million , compared to net income of$681.8 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 . The increase in our operating results in 2022 over 2021 was primarily due to a decrease in the provision for losses and LAE and an increase in net investment income, partially offset by decreases in net premiums earned, income from other invested assets and realized net investment gains and an increase in income taxes.
Net Premiums Written and Earned
Net premiums earned decreased in the year endedDecember 31, 2022 by three percent compared to the year endedDecember 31, 2021 due to the decrease in the average net premium rate from 0.41% for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 to 0.37% for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 partially offset by the increase in our average IIF from$202.9 billion in 2021 to$215.5 billion in 2022. The decrease in the average net premium rate during the year endedDecember 31, 2022 was a primarily due to changes in the mix of the mortgages we insure, changes in our pricing and a decrease in premiums earned on the cancellation of non-refundable single premium policies. In the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , premiums earned on the cancellation of non-refundable single premium policies decreased to$20.8 million from$63.8 million in the year endedDecember 31, 2021 as a result of a decrease in existing borrowers refinancing their mortgages during 2022 as compared to 2021. Net premiums written increased in the year endedDecember 31, 2022 by 2% over the prior year. The increase was due primarily to the increase in average IIF for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 as compared to the year endedDecember 31, 2021 partially offset by changes in the mix of mortgages we insure and changes in our pricing for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 as compared to the year endedDecember 31, 2021 . In the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , unearned premiums decreased by$22.5 million as a result of$64.2 million of unearned premium that was recognized in earnings during the year partially offset by net premiums written on single premium policies of$41.7 million . In the year endedDecember 31, 2021 , unearned premiums decreased by$65.1 million as a result of$111.7 million of unearned premium that was recognized in earnings during the year partially offset by net premiums written on single premium policies of$46.7 million . 62 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net Investment Income
Our net investment income was derived from the following sources for the periods
indicated:
Year Ended December 31,
(In thousands) 2022 2021
Fixed maturities $ 129,530 $ 94,117
Short-term investments 2,319 171
Gross investment income 131,849 94,288
Investment expenses (7,440) (5,523)
Net investment income $ 124,409 $ 88,765
The increase in net investment income to $124.4 million for the year ended
December 31, 2022 as compared to $88.8 million for the year ended December 31,
2021 was due to the increase in the weighted average balance of our investment
portfolio, as well as an increase in the average yield on the investment
portfolio. The average balance of investments at amortized cost increased to
$5.1 billion during the year ended December 31, 2022 from $4.7 billion during
the year ended December 31, 2021 , primarily as a result of investing cash flows
generated from operations, partially offset by cash used for share repurchases
and dividends. The pre-tax investment income yield increased from 2.0% in the
year ended December 31, 2021 to 2.6% in the year ended December 31, 2022
primarily due to a general increase in investment yields due to increasing
interest rates and a decrease in premium amortization on mortgage-backed and
asset-backed securities. The pre-tax investment income yields are calculated
based on amortized cost and exclude investment expenses. See "-Liquidity and
Capital Resources" for further details of our investment portfolio.
Income from Other Invested Assets
Income from other invested assets for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 was$28.7 million as compared to$56.4 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 . The decrease in income from other invested assets for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 as compared to the year endedDecember 31, 2021 was primarily due to lower fair value adjustments recorded during 2022. ThroughJune 30, 2021 , unrealized gains and losses reported by these entities were included in other comprehensive income ("OCI"). Subsequent toJune 30, 2021 , management concluded that unrealized gains and losses on these investments should be reflected in earnings rather than OCI. Income from other invested assets for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 includes$7.6 million of net unrealized gains that were accumulated in OCI atDecember 31, 2020 .
Other Income
Other income for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 was$18.4 million compared to$10.4 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 . The increase in other income for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 as compared to the year endedDecember 31, 2021 was primarily due to an increase in underwriting consulting services to third-party reinsurers and changes in the fair value of the embedded derivatives contained in certain of our reinsurance agreements, partially offset by lower Triad service fees and a decrease in contract underwriting revenues. In the year endedDecember 31, 2022 we recorded a net unfavorable decrease in the fair value of the embedded derivatives of$2.5 million compared to a net unfavorable decrease of$4.1 million in the year endedDecember 31, 2021 .
Provision for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
The decrease in the provision for losses and LAE in 2022 as compared to 2021 was
primarily due to a decrease in the estimate of ultimate loss for Early COVID
Defaults as well as cure activity for defaults with reserves using our normal
reserve methodology.
63
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The following table presents a rollforward of insured loans in default for our
Year Ended December
31,
2022
2021
Beginning default inventory 16,963 31,469
Plus: new defaults 25,636 23,297
Less: cures (28,873) (37,566)
Less: claims paid (261) (195)
Less: rescissions and denials, net (32) (42)
Ending default inventory 13,433
16,963
The following table includes additional information about our loans in default
as of the dates indicated for our
As of
2022 2021
Case reserves (in thousands) (1) $ 199,419 $ 375,396
Total reserves (in thousands) (1) $ 216,390 $ 406,096
Ending default inventory 13,433 16,963
Average case reserve per default (in thousands) $ 14.8 $ 22.1
Average total reserve per default (in thousands) $ 16.1 $ 23.9
Default rate 1.66 % 2.16 %
Claims received included in ending default inventory 121 60
_______________________________________________________________________________
(1)TheU.S. mortgage insurance portfolio reserves exclude reserves on GSE and other risk share risk in force at Essent Re of$0.1 million and$1.3 million as ofDecember 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. As ofMarch 31, 2022 , the defaulted loans reported to us in the second and third quarters of 2020 had reached the end of their forbearance periods. During the first quarter of 2022, the Early COVID Defaults cured at elevated levels, and the cumulative cure rate for the Early COVID Defaults atMarch 31, 2022 exceeded our initial estimated cure rate implied by our 7% estimate of ultimate loss for these defaults. Based on cure activity throughMarch 31, 2022 and our expectations for future cure activity, we lowered our estimate of ultimate loss for the Early COVID Defaults from 7% to 4% of the initial risk in force. During the three months endedJune 30, 2022 , Early COVID Defaults cured at levels that exceeded our estimate as ofMarch 31, 2022 , and we further lowered our estimate of loss for these defaults as ofJune 30, 2022 to 2% of the initial risk in force. These revisions to our estimate of ultimate loss for the Early COVID Defaults resulted in a benefit recorded to the provision for losses of$164.1 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 . As ofDecember 31, 2022 , approximately 99% of the Early COVID Defaults had cured. Due to the level of Early COVID Defaults remaining in the default inventory, beginning in the third quarter of 2022, we resumed reserving for the Early COVID Defaults using our normal reserve methodology. 64 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following table provides a reconciliation of the beginning and ending
reserve balances for losses and LAE:
Year Ended
(In thousands) 2022
2021
Reserve for losses and LAE at beginning of year
Less: Reinsurance recoverables 25,940
19,061
Net reserve for losses and LAE at beginning of year 381,505
355,880
Add provision for losses and LAE occurring in:
Current year 99,372
97,256
Prior years (274,076)
(66,199)
Incurred losses and LAE during the current year (174,704)
31,057
Deduct payments for losses and LAE occurring in:
Current year 224 388 Prior years 4,731
5,044
Loss and LAE payments during the current year 4,955
5,432
Net reserve for losses and LAE at end of year 201,846
381,505
Plus: Reinsurance recoverables 14,618
25,940
Reserve for losses and LAE at end of year$ 216,464
The following tables provide a detail of reserves and defaulted RIF by the number of missed payments and pending claims for ourU.S. mortgage insurance portfolio: As of December 31, 2022 Number of Percentage of Reserves as a Policies in Policies in Amount of Percentage of Defaulted Percentage of ($ in thousands) Default Default Reserves Reserves RIF Defaulted RIF Missed payments: Three payments or less 6,154 46 %$ 32,242 16 %$ 411,624 8 % Four to eleven payments 4,684 35 65,071 33 317,417 21 Twelve or more payments 2,474 18 98,291 49 147,247 67 Pending claims 121 1 3,815 2 4,860 78 Total case reserves (1) 13,433 100 % 199,419 100 %$ 881,148 23 IBNR 14,956 LAE 2,015 Total reserves for losses and LAE (1)$ 216,390 _______________________________________________________________________________ (1)TheU.S. mortgage insurance portfolio reserves exclude reserves on GSE and other risk share risk in force at Essent Re of$0.1 million as ofDecember 31, 2022 . As of December 31, 2021 Number of Percentage of Reserves as a Policies in Policies in Amount of Percentage of Defaulted Percentage of ($ in thousands) Default Default Reserves Reserves RIF Defaulted RIF Missed payments: Three payments or less 4,113 24 %$ 20,712 5 %$ 243,511 9 % Four to eleven payments 5,459 32 77,822 21 349,494 22 Twelve or more payments 7,331 43 274,465 73 470,859 58 Pending claims 60 1 2,397 1 2,852 84 Total case reserves (2) 16,963
100 % 375,396 100 %$ 1,066,716 35 IBNR 28,155 LAE 2,545 Total reserves for losses and LAE (2)$ 406,096 _______________________________________________________________________________ (2)TheU.S. mortgage insurance portfolio reserves exclude reserves on GSE and other risk share risk in force at Essent Re of$1.3 million as ofDecember 31, 2021 . 65 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- During the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , the provision for losses and LAE was a benefit of$174.7 million , comprised of$274.1 million of favorable prior years' loss development partially offset by a provision of$99.4 million for current year losses. During the year endedDecember 31, 2021 , the provision for losses and LAE was$31.1 million , comprised of$97.3 million of current year losses partially offset by$66.2 million of favorable prior years' loss development. In both periods, the favorable prior years' loss development was the result of a re-estimation of amounts ultimately to be paid on prior year defaults in the default inventory, including the impact of previously identified defaults that cured.
The following table includes additional information about our claims paid and
claim severity as of the dates indicated:
Year Ended December 31,
($ in thousands) 2022 2021
Number of claims paid 261 195
Amount of claims paid $ 4,665 $ 5,204
Claim severity 44 % 59 %
Other Underwriting and Operating Expenses
Following are the components of our other underwriting and operating expenses
for the periods indicated:
Year Ended December 31,
2022 2021
($ in thousands) $ % $ %
Compensation and benefits $ 100,302 59 % $ 101,339 61 %
Premium taxes 17,756 10 18,150 11
Other 53,679 31 47,368 28
Total other underwriting and operating expenses
Number of employees at end of year 346 343
The significant factors contributing to the change in other underwriting and
operating expenses are:
•Compensation and benefits decreased primarily due to decreased stock
compensation expense and severance associated with the departure of former
executives, partially offset by an increase in incentive compensation.
Compensation and benefits includes salaries, wages and bonus, stock compensation
expense, benefits and payroll taxes.
•Premium taxes decreased primarily due to a decrease in our effective premium
tax rate.
•Other expenses increased primarily as a result of increases in professional fees, travel expenses, rent expense and a decrease in ceding commission earned under our QSR Agreements, partially offset by a decrease in amortization of net deferred acquisition costs. Other expenses include professional fees, travel, marketing, hardware, software, rent, depreciation and amortization and other facilities expenses. Interest Expense For the years endedDecember 31, 2022 and 2021, we incurred interest expense of$15.6 million and$8.3 million , respectively. Interest expense increased due to an increase in the weighted average interest rate on amounts outstanding under the Credit Facility and an increase in the average amounts outstanding under the Credit Facility. For the years endingDecember 31, 2022 and 2021, the borrowings under the Credit Facility had a weighted average interest rate of 3.42% and 2.07%, respectively. For the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , the average amount outstanding under the Credit Facility was$425.0 million as compared to$331.7 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 .
Income Taxes
Our subsidiaries inthe United States file a consolidatedU.S. Federal income tax return. Our income tax expense was$156.8 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 compared to$140.5 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 . The 66 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- effective tax rate for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 was 15.9% compared to 17.1% for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 . Our effective income tax rate reflects the amount of earnings or losses generated in the jurisdictions in which we operate, the applicable tax rates and regulations in those jurisdictions, and the impact of discrete items. For the year endedDecember 31, 2021 , income tax expense includes$8.2 million of expense associated with an increase in the estimate of our beginning of the year deferred state income tax liability.
At
that our deferred tax assets would be realized.
Year Ended
Pursuant to the FAST Act Modernization and Simplification of Regulation S-K, discussions related to the changes in results of operations for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 compared to the year endedDecember 31, 2020 have been omitted. Such omitted discussion can be found under Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 filed with theSecurities and Exchange Commission onFebruary 15th, 2022 .
Liquidity and Capital Resources
Overview
Our sources of funds consist primarily of:
•our investment portfolio and interest income on the portfolio;
•net premiums that we will receive from our existing IIF as well as policies
that we write in the future;
•borrowings under our Credit Facility; and
•issuance of capital shares.
Our obligations consist primarily of:
•claim payments under our policies;
•interest payments and repayment of borrowings under our Credit Facility;
•the other costs and operating expenses of our business;
•the repurchase of common shares under the share repurchase plan approved by our
Board of Directors; and
•the payment of dividends on our common shares.
As ofDecember 31, 2022 , we had substantial liquidity with cash of$81.2 million , short-term investments of$252.0 million and fixed maturity investments of$4.5 billion . We also had$400 million of available capacity under the revolving credit component of our Credit Facility, with$425 million of term borrowings outstanding under our Credit Facility. Borrowings under the Credit Facility contractually mature onDecember 10, 2026 . Holding company net cash and investments available for sale totaled$685.2 million atDecember 31, 2022 . In addition,Essent Guaranty is a member of theFederal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh (the "FHLBank") and has access to secured borrowing capacity with the FHLBank to provideEssent Guaranty with supplemental liquidity.Essent Guaranty had no outstanding borrowings with the FHLBank atDecember 31, 2022 . Management believes that the Company has sufficient liquidity available both at its holding companies and in its insurance and other operating subsidiaries to meet its operating cash needs and obligations and committed capital expenditures for the next 12 months. While the Company and all of its subsidiaries are expected to have sufficient liquidity to meet all their expected obligations, additional capital may be required to meet any new capital requirements that are adopted by regulatory authorities or the GSEs, to respond to changes in the business or economic environment, to provide additional capital related to the growth of our risk in force in our mortgage insurance portfolio, or to fund new business initiatives. We regularly review potential 67 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- investments and acquisitions, some of which may be material, that, if consummated, would expand our existing business or result in new lines of business, and at any given time we may be in discussions concerning possible transactions. InFebruary 2023 , we announced thatEssent US Holdings, Inc. entered into an agreement to acquire the title insurance operations of a subsidiary of Finance of America Companies for$100 million . We continually evaluate opportunities based upon market conditions to further increase our financial flexibility through the issuance of equity or debt, or other options including reinsurance or credit risk transfer transactions. There can be no guarantee that any such opportunities will be available on acceptable terms or at all.
At the operating subsidiary level, liquidity could be impacted by any one of the
following factors:
•significant decline in the value of our investments;
•inability to sell investment assets to provide cash to fund operating needs;
•decline in expected revenues generated from operations;
•increase in expected claim payments related to our IIF; or
•increase in operating expenses.
OurU.S. insurance subsidiaries are subject to certain capital and dividend rules and regulations prescribed by jurisdictions in which they are authorized to operate and the GSEs. Under the insurance laws of theCommonwealth of Pennsylvania , the insurance subsidiaries may pay dividends during any twelve-month period in an amount equal to the greater of (i) 10% of the preceding year-end statutory policyholders' surplus or (ii) the preceding year's statutory net income. ThePennsylvania statute also requires that dividends and other distributions be paid out of positive unassigned surplus without prior approval. AtDecember 31, 2022 ,Essent Guaranty , had unassigned surplus of approximately$314.7 million andEssent Guaranty ofPA, Inc. had unassigned surplus of approximately$13.6 million . As ofJanuary 1, 2023 ,Essent Guaranty has dividend capacity of$314.7 million and Essent PA has dividend capacity of$5.3 million . Essent Re is subject to certain dividend restrictions as prescribed by theBermuda Monetary Authority and under certain agreements with counterparties. In connection with a quota share reinsurance agreement withEssent Guaranty , Essent Re has agreed to maintain a minimum total equity of$100 million . As ofDecember 31, 2022 , Essent Re had total equity of$1.5 billion . In connection with its insurance and reinsurance activities, Essent Re is required to maintain assets in trusts for the benefit of its contractual counterparties. See Note 3 to our consolidated financial statements. AtDecember 31, 2022 , our insurance subsidiaries were in compliance with these rules, regulations and agreements.
Cash Flows
The following table summarizes our consolidated cash flows from operating,
investing and financing activities:
Year Ended December 31,
(In thousands) 2022 2021 2020
Net cash provided by operating activities $ 588,817 $ 709,256 $ 727,931
Net cash used in investing activities (398,872) (583,167) (1,154,417)
Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities (190,196) (147,428) 457,966
Net (decrease) increase in cash $ (251) $ (21,339) $ 31,480
Operating Activities
Cash flow provided by operating activities totaled $588.8 million for the year
ended December 31, 2022 , as compared to $709.3 million for the year ended
December 31, 2021 and $727.9 million for the year ended December 31, 2020 . The
decrease in cash flow from operations of $120.4 million in 2022 compared to 2021
was primarily due to increases in other assets and accounts receivable, as well
as income tax payments. The decrease in cash flow from operations of $18.7
million in 2021 compared to 2020 was primarily due to an increase in income tax
payments and higher United States Mortgage Guaranty Tax and Loss Bonds ("T&L
Bonds") purchased during 2021 as well as higher premiums ceded under third-party
reinsurance agreements.
68
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Investing Activities
Cash flow used in investing activities totaled$398.9 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 and primarily related to investing cash flows from the business. Cash flow used in investing activities totaled$583.2 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 and primarily related to investing cash flows from the business and net increased borrowings under the Credit Facility. Cash flow used in investing activities totaled$1.2 billion for the year endedDecember 31, 2020 and primarily related to investing cash flows from the business, net proceeds of approximately$440 million from the completion of a public offering of common shares inJune 2020 and net increased borrowings under the Credit Facility. Financing Activities Cash flow used in financing activities totaled$190.2 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2022 and primarily related to the repurchases of common shares as part of our share repurchase plan, quarterly cash dividends paid in 2022 and treasury stock acquired from employees to satisfy tax withholding obligations. Cash flow provided by financing activities totaled$147.4 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2021 and primarily related to the repurchases of common shares as part of our share repurchase plan, quarterly cash dividends paid in 2021 and treasury stock acquired from employees to satisfy tax withholding obligations, partially offset by net increased borrowings under the Credit Facility. Cash flow used in financing activities totaled$458.0 million for the year endedDecember 31, 2020 and primarily related to$440 million of net proceeds from the completion of a public offering of common shares inJune 2020 and net increased borrowings under the Credit Facility, partially offset by quarterly cash dividends paid in 2020 and treasury stock acquired from employees to satisfy tax withholding obligations.
We compute a risk-to-capital ratio for ourU.S. insurance companies on a separate company statutory basis, as well as for our combined insurance operations. The risk-to-capital ratio is our net risk in force divided by our statutory capital. Our net risk in force represents risk in force net of reinsurance ceded, if any, and net of exposures on policies for which loss reserves have been established. Statutory capital consists primarily of statutory policyholders' surplus (which increases as a result of statutory net income and decreases as a result of statutory net loss and dividends paid), plus the statutory contingency reserve. The statutory contingency reserve is reported as a liability on the statutory balance sheet. A mortgage insurance company is required to make annual contributions to the contingency reserve of 50% of net premiums earned. These contributions must generally be maintained for a period of ten years. However, with regulatory approval, a mortgage insurance company may make early withdrawals from the contingency reserve when incurred losses exceed 35% of net premiums earned in a calendar year. During the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , no capital contributions were made to ourU.S. insurance subsidiaries andEssent Guaranty paid dividends toEssent US Holdings, Inc. totaling$315.0 million . During the year endedDecember 31, 2022 ,Essent Guaranty of PA paid a dividend toEssent US Holdings, Inc. totaling$5 million .Essent Guaranty has entered into reinsurance agreements that provide excess of loss reinsurance coverage for new defaults on portfolios of mortgage insurance policies issued in 2015 throughDecember 31, 2022 . The aggregate excess of loss reinsurance coverages decrease over a ten-year period as the underlying covered mortgages amortize. Based on the level of delinquencies reported to us, the insurance-linked note transactions (the "ILNs") thatEssent Guaranty entered into prior toMarch 31, 2020 became subject to a "trigger event" as ofJune 25, 2020 . The aggregate excess of loss reinsurance coverage will not amortize during the continuation of a trigger event. As ofNovember 26, 2021 , Radnor Re 2019-2 was no longer subject to a trigger event. Radnor Re 2020-1 was no longer subject to a trigger event as ofJuly 25, 2022 .Essent Guaranty has entered into quota share reinsurance agreements with panels of third-party reinsurers ("QSR" agreements). Each of the third-party reinsurers has an insurer minimum financial strength rating of A- or better byS&P Global Ratings ,A.M. Best or both. Under each QSR agreement,Essent Guaranty will cede premiums earned on a percentage of risk on all eligible policies written during a specified period, in exchange for reimbursement of ceded claims and claims expenses on covered policies, a specified ceding commission, as well as a profit commission that varies directly and inversely with ceded claims. These reinsurance coverages also reduce net risk in force and PMIERs Minimum Required Assets. See Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements. 69 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The following tables summarizesEssent Guaranty's QSR agreements as ofDecember 31, 2022 : QSR Agreement Eligible Policy Period Ceding Percentage Ceding Commission Profit Commission QSR-2019 September 1, 2019-December 31, 2020 (1) 20% 63% (2) QSR-2022 January 1, 2022-December 31, 2022 20% 20% 62% QSR-2023 January 1, 2023-December 31, 2023 17.5% 20% 58%
_______________________________________________________________________________ (1)Under QSR-2019,Essent Guaranty cedes 40% of premiums on singles policies and 20% on all other policies. (2)The initial profit commission on QSR-2019 was up to 60%. SinceEssent Guaranty did not exercise its option to terminate this QSR agreement onDecember 31, 2021 , the maximum profit commission thatEssent Guaranty could earn increased to 63% in 2022 and thereafter.
Our combined risk-to-capital calculation for our
of
Combined statutory capital:
($ in thousands)
Policyholders' surplus $ 1,072,667
Contingency reserves 2,105,484
Combined statutory capital $ 3,178,151
Combined net risk in force $ 32,265,701
Combined risk-to-capital ratio 10.2:1
For additional information regarding regulatory capital see Note 16 to our
consolidated financial statements. Our combined statutory capital equals the sum
of statutory capital of Essent Guaranty plus Essent Guaranty of PA, Inc. , after
eliminating the impact of intercompany transactions. The combined
risk-to-capital ratio equals the sum of the net risk in force of Essent Guaranty
and Essent Guaranty of PA, Inc. divided by combined statutory capital. The
information above has been derived from the annual and quarterly statements of
our insurance subsidiaries, which have been prepared in conformity with
accounting practices prescribed or permitted by the Pennsylvania Insurance
Department and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners Accounting
Practices and Procedures Manual . Such practices vary from accounting principles
generally accepted in the United States .
Essent Re has entered into GSE and other risk share transactions, including
insurance and reinsurance transactions with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Under a
quota share reinsurance agreement, Essent Re reinsures 25% of Essent Guaranty's
NIW under through December 31, 2020 and 35% of Essent Guaranty's NIW after
December 31, 2020 . During the years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021, Essent Re
paid no dividends to Essent Group and Essent Group made no capital contributions
to Essent Re. As of December 31, 2022 , Essent Re had total stockholders' equity
of $1.5 billion and net risk in force of $19.5 billion .
Financial Strength Ratings
The insurer financial strength ratings ofEssent Guaranty , our principal mortgage insurance subsidiary, are A3 with a stable outlook by Moody's, BBB+ with a stable outlook by S&P and A (Excellent) with a stable outlook byA.M. Best . The insurer financial strength ratings of Essent Re are BBB+ with a stable outlook by S&P and A (Excellent) with a stable outlook byA.M. Best .
Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, maintain coordinated Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements, which we refer to as the "PMIERs." The PMIERs represent the standards by which private mortgage insurers are eligible to provide mortgage insurance on loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The PMIERs include financial strength requirements incorporating a risk-based framework that require approved insurers to have a sufficient level of liquid assets from which to pay claims. This risk-based framework provides that an insurer must hold a substantially higher level of required assets for insured loans that are in default compared to a performing loan. The PMIERs also include enhanced operational performance expectations and define remedial actions that apply should an approved insurer fail to comply with these requirements. As ofDecember 31, 2022 ,Essent Guaranty , our GSE-approved mortgage insurance company, was in compliance with the PMIERs. 70 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As of
or 174% of its Minimum Required Assets were
interpretation of the PMIERs.
Under PMIERs guidance issued by the GSEs effectiveJune 30, 2020 ,Essent will apply a 0.30 multiplier to the risk-based required asset amount factor for each insured loan in default backed by a property located in aFederal Emergency Management Agency ("FEMA") Declared Major Disaster Area eligible for Individual Assistance and that either 1) is subject to a forbearance plan granted in response to a FEMA Declared Major Disaster, the terms of which are materially consistent with terms of forbearance plans, repayment plans or loan modification trial period offered by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, or 2) has an initial missed payment occurring up to either (i) 30 days prior to the first day of the incident period specified in the FEMA Major Disaster Declaration or (ii) 90 days following the last day of the incident period specified in the FEMA Major Disaster Declaration, not to exceed 180 days from the first day of the incident period specified in the FEMA Major Disaster Declaration. In the case of the foregoing, the 0.30 multiplier shall be applied to the risk-based required asset amount factor for a non-performing primary mortgage guaranty insurance loan for no longer than three calendar months beginning with the month the loan becomes a non-performing primary mortgage guaranty insurance loan by reaching two missed monthly payments absent a forbearance plan described in 1) above. Further, under temporary provisions provided by the PMIERs guidance,Essent will apply a 0.30 multiplier to the risk-based required asset amount factor for each insured loan in default backed by a property that has an initial missed payment occurring on or afterMarch 1, 2020 and prior toApril 1, 2021 (COVID-19 Crisis Period). The 0.30 multiplier will be applicable for insured loans in default 1) subject to a forbearance plan granted in response to a financial hardship related to COVID-19 (which shall be assumed to be the case for any loan that has an initial missed payment occurring during the COVID-19 Crisis Period and is subject to a forbearance plan, repayment plan or loan modification trial period), the terms of which are materially consistent with terms offered by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac or 2) for no longer than three calendar months beginning with the month the loan becomes a non-performing primary mortgage guaranty insurance loan by reaching two missed monthly payments.
Financial Condition
Stockholders' Equity
As ofDecember 31, 2022 , stockholders' equity was$4.5 billion compared to$4.2 billion as ofDecember 31, 2021 . Stockholders' equity increased primarily due to net income generated in 2022, partially offset by a decrease in accumulated other comprehensive income related to an increase in our net unrealized investment losses associated with increases in market interest rates during the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , the repurchase of common shares under our share repurchase plan, and dividends paid.
Investments
As ofDecember 31, 2022 , investments totaled$5.0 billion compared to$5.1 billion as ofDecember 31, 2021 . In addition, our total cash was$81.2 million as ofDecember 31, 2022 , compared to$81.5 million as ofDecember 31, 2021 . The decrease in investments was primarily due to an increase in our net unrealized investment losses primarily due to increases in market interest rates in the during the year endedDecember 31, 2022 , partially offset by investing net cash flows from operations during the year endedDecember 31, 2022 . 71 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Investments Available for Sale by Asset Class
Asset Class December 31, 2022 December 31, 2021 ($ in thousands) Fair Value Percent Fair Value Percent U.S. Treasury securities $ 556,438 11.7 % $ 448,793 9.1 % U.S. agency securities 49,058 1.0 5,504 0.1 U.S. agency mortgage-backed securities 783,743 16.5 1,008,863 20.3 Municipal debt securities(1) 602,690 12.8 627,599 12.7 Non-U.S. government securities 62,399 1.3 79,743 1.6 Corporate debt securities(2) 1,414,321 29.8 1,455,247 29.3 Residential and commercial mortgage securities 511,824 10.8 545,423 11.0 Asset-backed securities 624,561 13.2 581,703 11.7 Money market funds 136,591 2.9 210,012 4.2 Total Investments Available for Sale$ 4,741,625 100.0 %$ 4,962,887 100.0 % _______________________________________________________________________________ December 31, December 31,
(1) The following table summarizes municipal debt securities as of :
2022 2021
Special revenue bonds 79.0 % 77.1 %
General obligation bonds 20.9 20.5
Certificate of participation bonds - 1.9
Tax allocation bonds 0.1 0.5
Total 100.0 % 100.0 %
December 31, December 31,
(2) The following table summarizes corporate debt securities as of :
2022 2021
Financial 40.5 % 33.7 %
Consumer, non-cyclical 17.9 19.8
Consumer, cyclical 6.8 7.0
Industrial 6.8 7.0
Utilities 6.1 4.6
Technology 4.9 6.8
Communications 8.4 11.4
Energy 6.4 6.0
Basic Materials 2.1 3.7
Government 0.1 -
Total 100.0 % 100.0 %
72
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Investments Available for Sale by Rating
Rating(1) December 31, 2022 December 31, 2021
($ in thousands) Fair Value Percent Fair Value Percent
Aaa $ 2,226,951 46.9 % $ 2,412,273 48.6 %
Aa1 111,342 2.3 96,331 1.9
Aa2 327,742 6.9 354,951 7.2
Aa3 234,994 5.0 221,914 4.5
A1 421,752 8.9 263,820 5.3
A2 411,670 8.7 427,282 8.6
A3 268,928 5.7 274,525 5.5
Baa1 236,793 5.0 305,204 6.1
Baa2 221,308 4.7 274,011 5.5
Baa3 187,117 3.9 240,755 4.9
Below Baa3 93,028 2.0 91,821 1.9
Total Investments Available for Sale $ 4,741,625 100.0 % $ 4,962,887 100.0 %
_______________________________________________________________________________
(1)Based on ratings issued by Moody's, if available. S&P or Fitch Ratings
("Fitch") rating utilized if Moody's not available.
Investments Available for Sale by Effective Duration
Effective Duration December 31, 2022 December 31, 2021 ($ in thousands) Fair Value Percent Fair Value Percent < 1 Year$ 1,245,839 26.3 %$ 1,104,397 22.2 % 1 to < 2 Years 534,038 11.3 561,297 11.3 2 to < 3 Years 511,701 10.8 539,174 10.9 3 to < 4 Years 525,683 11.1 593,663 12.0 4 to < 5 Years 400,540 8.4 663,127 13.4 5 or more Years 1,523,824 32.1 1,501,229 30.2 Total Investments Available for Sale$ 4,741,625 100.0 %$ 4,962,887 100.0 % 73
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Top Ten Investments Available for Sale Holdings
December 31, 2022 Rank Amortized Unrealized Credit ($ in thousands) Security Fair Value Cost Gain (Loss)(1) Rating(2) 1 US Treasury 2.875% 06/15/2025$ 39,908 $ 40,914 $ (1,006) Aaa 2 US Treasury 1.500% 08/15/2026 31,025 34,413 (3,388) Aaa Federal Home Loan Banks 0.000% 3 01/03/2023 27,080 27,077 3 A2 4 US Treasury 0.250% 05/31/2025 23,249 25,585 (2,336) Aaa 5 US Treasury 2.500% 01/31/2024 19,911 20,389 (478) Aaa 6 US Treasury 0.000% 02/23/2023 19,879 19,970 (91) Aaa 7 US Treasury 2.625% 06/30/2023 19,562 19,737 (175) Aaa 8 US Treasury 2.000% 04/30/2024 19,369 19,470 (101) Aaa 9 US Treasury 0.875% 06/30/2026 17,584 19,640 (2,056) Aaa 10 US Treasury 0.125% 10/15/2023 17,003 17,617 (614) Aaa Total
Percent of Investments Available for Sale
4.9 %
_______________________________________________________________________________
(1)As ofDecember 31, 2022 , for securities in unrealized loss positions, management believes decline in fair values are principally associated with the changes in the interest rate environment subsequent to their purchase. Also, see Note 3 to our consolidated financial statements, which summarizes the aggregate amount of gross unrealized losses by asset class in which the fair value of investments available for sale has been less than cost for less than 12 months and for 12 months or more.
(2)Based on ratings issued by Moody's, if available. S&P or Fitch rating
utilized if Moody's not available.
Rank December 31, 2021
($ in thousands) Security Fair Value
1 Fannie Mae 2.000% 10/1/2051 $ 34,743
2 U.S. Treasury 1.500% 8/15/2026 34,404
3 U.S. Treasury 0.000% 6/30/2022 28,548
4 U.S. Treasury 0.250% 5/31/2025 24,918
5 Fannie Mae 3.500% 1/1/2058 21,424
6 U.S. Treasury 2.625% 6/30/2023 20,348
7 U.S. Treasury 0.000% 12/29/2022 19,376
8 U.S. Treasury 0.875% 6/30/2026 19,349
9 U.S. Treasury 5.250% 11/15/2028 19,082
10 U.S. Treasury 0.125% 10/15/2023 17,449
Total $ 239,641
Percent of Investments Available for Sale 4.8 %
The following tables includes municipal securities for states that represent
more than 10% of the total municipal bond position as of
74 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amortized Credit
($ in thousands) Fair Value Cost Rating (1), (2)
California
Bay Area Toll Authority $ 8,785 $ 10,851 A1
State of California $ 8,737 $ 8,989 Aa2
San Joaquin Hills Transportation Corridor Agency $ 5,947 $ 7,725 A1
City of Anaheim CA $ 5,528 $ 7,725 A1
Community Hospitals of Central California
Obligated Group $ 5,289 $ 7,725 A1
Golden State Tobacco Securitization Corp $ 4,113 $ 5,019 A3
San Francisco City & County Airport Comm-San
Francisco International Airport $ 3,660 $ 3,632 A1
City of Carson CA $ 3,243 $ 4,402 Aa3
City of Long Beach CA Harbor Revenue $ 3,160 $ 3,132 Aa1
San Jose Unified School District $ 3,075 $ 4,090 Aaa
Redwoods/The a Community of Seniors $ 2,849 $ 3,740 Aa3
County of Kern CA $ 2,720 $ 2,741 Baa2
City of Los Angeles Department of Airports $ 2,641 $ 2,628 Aa3
Los Angeles Unified School District/CA $ 2,601 $ 3,040 Aa3
Chabot-Las Positas Community College District $ 2,526 $ 2,649 Aa2
University of California $ 2,460 $ 2,512 Aa2
Port of Oakland $ 2,271 $ 2,433 A1
City of Inglewood CA $ 2,243 $ 3,128 Aa2
County of Riverside CA $ 2,081 $ 2,250 Aa2
City of Monterey Park CA $ 2,065 $ 2,967 Aa2
State of California Personal Income Tax Revenue $ 1,943 $ 2,045 Aa3
Foothill-Eastern Transportation Corridor Agency $ 1,608 $ 2,350 A1
Kaiser Foundation Hospitals $ 1,277 $ 1,299 Aa3
Regents of the University of California Medical
Center Pooled Revenue $ 1,258 $ 1,361 Aa3
Riverside County Transportation Commission $ 1,217 $ 1,665 A2
City of Torrance CA $ 1,095 $ 1,243 Aa2
City of San Francisco CA Public Utilities
Commission Water Revenue $ 1,035 $ 1,362 Aa2
City of El Cajon CA $ 924 $ 1,283 Aa2
County of Sacramento CA $ 886 $ 886 A1
City of El Monte CA $ 816 $ 1,000 Aa2
Alameda Corridor Transportation Authority $ 806 $ 871 A3
Cathedral City Redevelopment Agency Successor
Agency $ 725 $ 718 Aa2
Pomona Redevelopment Agency Successor Agency $ 658 $ 700 Aa2
California Independent System Operator Corp $ 493 $ 725 A1
California County Tobacco Securitization Agency $ 409 $ 475 A3
County of San Bernardino CA $ 291 $ 293 Aa1
Oxnard Union High School District $ 205 $ 250 Aa2
City of San Jose CA $ 166 $ 205 Aa2
City of Riverside CA $ 149 $ 155 Aa2
Compton Community College District $ 119 $ 116 Aa3
City of Los Angeles CA $ 89 $ 111 Aa3
$ 92,163 $ 110,491
_______________________________________________________________________________
(1)Certain of the above securities may include financial guaranty insurance or
state enhancements. The above ratings include the effect of these credit
enhancements, if applicable.
75 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(2)Based on ratings issued by Moody's, if available. S&P or Fitch rating
utilized if Moody's not available.
Amortized Credit ($ in thousands) Fair Value Cost Rating (1), (2) New York City of New York NY$ 8,957 $ 8,972 Aa2New York City Transitional Finance Authority Future Tax Secured Revenue$ 7,613 $ 8,344 Aa1 Port Authority of New York & New Jersey$ 7,500 $ 8,367 Aa3 State of New York Personal Income Tax Revenue$ 7,116 $ 7,323 Aa1 Metropolitan Transportation Authority$ 6,502 $ 6,988 A3 Metropolitan Transportation Authority Payroll Mobility Tax Revenue$ 6,166 $ 7,211 Aa1 University of Rochester$ 3,234 $ 3,234 Aa3 New York City Water & Sewer System$ 2,843 $ 2,924 Aa1 Triborough Bridge & Tunnel Authority$ 2,661 $ 2,643 Aa3 Research Foundation of State University of New York/The$ 2,139 $ 2,470 A1 City of Yonkers NY$ 2,111 $ 2,290 A3 Rochester Institute of Technology$ 2,068 $ 2,223 A1 Long Island Power Authority$ 1,679 $ 1,677 A2 New York State Dormitory Authority$ 1,604 $ 1,604 Aa3New York City Transitional Finance Authority Building Aid Revenue$ 1,485 $ 1,497 Aa2 Trustees ofColumbia University in the City of New York/The$ 1,306 $ 1,310 Aaa State of New York Sales Tax Revenue$ 1,166 $ 1,489 Aa1 State University of New York Dormitory Facilities Revenue$ 856 $ 1,000 Aa3 Yankee Stadium LLC$ 671 $ 793 A1 County of Nassau NY$ 274 $ 274 A1$ 67,951 $ 72,633
_______________________________________________________________________________
(1)Certain of the above securities may include financial guaranty insurance or
state enhancements. The above ratings include the effect of these credit
enhancements, if applicable.
(2)Based on ratings issued by Moody's, if available. S&P or Fitch rating
utilized if Moody's not available.
Material Cash Requirement from Known Contractual and Other Obligations
As ofDecember 31, 2022 , the approximate future cash requirements from known contractual and other obligations of the type described in the table below are as follows: Payments due by period Less than More than ($ in thousands) Total 1 year 1 - 3 years 3 - 5 years 5 years Credit facility borrowings$ 425,000 $
- $ -
Estimated loss and LAE payments (1)
216,464 57,198 115,508 43,758 - Operating lease obligations 16,831 4,302 4,667 2,535 5,327 Unfunded investment commitments (2) 117,400 117,400 - - - Total$ 775,695 $ 178,900 $ 120,175 $ 471,293 $ 5,327
_______________________________________________________________________________
(1)Our estimate of loss and LAE payments reflects the application of accounting
policies described below in "-Critical Accounting Policies-Reserve for Losses
and Loss Adjustment Expenses." The payments due by period are based on
management's estimates and assume that all of the loss and LAE reserves included
in the table will result in payments.
(2)Unfunded investment commitments are callable by our investment
counterparties. We have assumed that these investments will be funded in the
next year but the funding may occur over a longer period of time, due to market
conditions and other factors.
76
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We lease office space in Pennsylvania , North Carolina , New York , Virginia and
Bermuda under leases accounted for as operating leases. A portion of the space
leased in North Carolina has been subleased to Triad; minimum lease payments
shown above have not been reduced by minimum sublease rental income of $0.1
million due in 2023 under the non-cancelable sublease.
In
agreement to acquire the title insurance operations of a subsidiary of Finance
of America Companies for
expected to occur in the third quarter of 2023 and is subject to regulatory
approvals.
Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements
Essent Guaranty has entered into fully collateralized reinsurance agreements ("Radnor Re Transactions") with unaffiliated special purpose insurers domiciled inBermuda . The Radnor Re special purpose insurers are special purpose variable interest entities that are not consolidated in our consolidated financial statements because we do not have the unilateral power to direct those activities that are significant to their economic performance. As ofDecember 31, 2022 , our estimated off-balance sheet maximum exposure to loss from the Radnor Re entities was$0.5 million , representing the estimated net present value of investment earnings on the assets in the reinsurance trusts. See Note 5 to our consolidated financial statements for additional information.
Critical Accounting Policies
Our discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operation are based upon our consolidated financial statements, which have been prepared in conformity withU.S. generally accepted accounting principles ("GAAP"). In preparing our consolidated financial statements, management has made estimates, assumptions and judgments that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting periods. In preparing these financial statements, management has utilized available information, including our past history, industry standards and the current and projected economic and housing environment, among other factors, in forming its estimates, assumptions and judgments, giving due consideration to materiality. Because the use of estimates is inherent in GAAP, actual results could differ from those estimates. In addition, other companies may utilize different estimates, which may impact comparability of our results of operations to those of companies in similar businesses. A summary of the accounting policies that management believes are critical to the preparation of our consolidated financial statements is set forth below.
Insurance Premium Revenue Recognition
Mortgage guaranty insurance policies are contracts that are generally non-cancelable by the insurer, are renewable at a fixed price, and provide for payment of premium on a monthly, annual or single basis. Upon renewal, we are not able to re-underwrite or re-price our policies. Consistent with industry accounting practices, premiums written on a monthly basis are earned as coverage is provided. Premiums written on an annual basis are amortized on a pro rata basis over the year of coverage. Primary mortgage insurance written on policies covering more than one year are referred to as single premium policies. A portion of the revenue from single premium policies is recognized in earned premium in the current period, and the remaining portion is deferred as unearned premium and earned over the expected life of the policy. If single premium policies related to insured loans are cancelled due to repayment by the borrower, and the premium is non-refundable, then the remaining unearned premium related to each cancelled policy is recognized as earned premium upon notification of the cancellation. Unearned premium represents the portion of premium written that is applicable to the estimated unexpired risk of insured loans. Rates used to determine the earning of single premium policies are estimates based on an analysis of the expiration of risk.
Reserve for Losses and Loss Adjustment Expenses
We establish reserves for losses based on our best estimate of ultimate claim
costs for defaulted loans using the general principles contained in ASC No. 944,
in accordance with industry practice. However, consistent with industry
standards for mortgage insurers, we do not establish loss reserves for future
claims on insured loans which are not currently in default. Loans are classified
as defaulted when the borrower has missed two consecutive payments. Once we are
notified that a borrower has defaulted, we will consider internal and
third-party information and models, including the status of the loan as reported
by its servicer and the type of loan product to determine the likelihood that a
default will reach claim status. In addition, we will project the amount that we
will pay if a default becomes a claim (referred to as "claim severity"). Based
on this information, at each reporting date we determine our best estimate of
loss reserves at a given point in time. Included in loss reserves are reserves
for incurred but not reported ("IBNR") claims. IBNR reserves represent our
estimated unpaid losses on loans that are
77
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
in default, but have not yet been reported to us as delinquent by our customers.
We will also establish reserves for associated loss adjustment expenses,
consisting of the estimated cost of the claims administration process, including
legal and other fees and expenses associated with administering the claims
process. Establishing reserves is inherently subjective as it requires estimates
that are susceptible to significant revision as more information becomes
available. Our estimates of claim rates and claim sizes will be strongly
influenced by prevailing economic conditions, such as the overall state of the
economy, current rates or trends in unemployment, changes in housing values
and/or interest rates, and our best judgments as to the future values or trends
of these macroeconomic factors. Losses incurred are also generally affected by
the characteristics of our insured loans, such as the loan amount, loan-to-value
ratio, the percentage of coverage on the insured loan and the credit quality of
the borrower. See "-Results of Operations-Provision for Losses and Loss
Adjustment Expenses" for a discussion of this estimate and Note 6 to our
consolidated financial statements a sensitivity of the key assumption for this
estimate.
Income Taxes
Deferred income tax assets and liabilities are determined using the asset and
liability (or balance sheet) method. Under this method, we determine the net
deferred tax asset or liability based on the tax effects of the temporary
differences between the book and tax bases of the various assets and liabilities
and give current recognition to changes in tax rates and laws. Changes in tax
laws, rates, regulations and policies, or the final determination of tax audits
or examinations, could materially affect our tax estimates. We evaluate the
realizability of the deferred tax asset and recognize a valuation allowance if,
based on the weight of all available positive and negative evidence, it is more
likely than not that some portion or all of the deferred tax asset will not be
realized. When evaluating the realizability of the deferred tax asset, we
consider estimates of expected future taxable income, existing and projected
book/tax differences, carryback and carryforward periods, tax planning
strategies available, and the general and industry specific economic outlook.
This realizability analysis is inherently subjective, as it requires management
to forecast changes in the mortgage market, as well as the related impact on
mortgage insurance, and the competitive and general economic environment in
future periods. Changes in the estimate of deferred tax asset realizability, if
applicable, are included in income tax expense on the consolidated statements of
comprehensive income.
ASC No. 740 provides a recognition threshold and measurement attribute for the
financial statement recognition and measurement of a tax position taken or
expected to be taken in a tax return. In accordance with ASC No. 740, before a
tax benefit can be recognized, a tax position is evaluated using a threshold
that it is more likely than not that the tax position will be sustained upon
examination. When evaluating the more-likely-than-not recognition threshold, ASC
No. 740 provides that a company should presume the tax position will be examined
by the appropriate taxing authority that has full knowledge of all relevant
information. If the tax position meets the more-likely-than-not recognition
threshold, it is initially and subsequently measured as the largest amount of
benefit that is greater than 50% likely of being realized upon ultimate
settlement. This analysis is inherently subjective, as it requires management to
forecast the outcome of future tax examinations and the amount of tax benefits
that will ultimately be realized given the facts, circumstances, and information
available at the reporting date. New information may become available in future
periods that could cause the actual amount of tax benefits to vary from
management's estimates.
Investments
Our fixed maturity and short-term investments are classified as available for sale and are reported at fair value. The related unrealized gains or losses are, after considering the related tax expense or benefit, recognized as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income (loss) in stockholders' equity. Realized investment gains and losses are reported in income based upon specific identification of securities sold. Each quarter we perform reviews of all of our investments in order to determine whether declines in fair value below amortized cost were considered other-than-temporary in accordance with applicable guidance. In evaluating whether a decline in fair value is other-than-temporary, we consider several factors including, but not limited to:
•our intent to sell the security or whether it is more likely than not that we
will be required to sell the security before recovery;
•failure of the issuer to make scheduled interest or principal payments;
•credit ratings from third-party rating agencies and changes in these credit
ratings below investment-grade;
•current credit spreads, downgrade trends, industry and asset sector trends, and issuer disclosures and financial reports to determine if credit ratings from third-party credit agencies are reasonable; and
•adverse conditions specifically related to the security, an industry, or a
geographic area.
78 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- An investment security is impaired if the fair value of the security is less than its amortized cost basis. Under the current guidance we determine whether the impairment has resulted from a credit loss or other factors. We determine whether a credit loss exists by considering information about the collectability of the instrument, current market conditions, and reasonable and supportable forecasts of economic conditions. We recognize an allowance for credit losses, up to the amount of the impairment when appropriate, and write down the amortized cost basis of the investment if it is more likely than not we will be required or we intend to sell the investment before recovery of its amortized cost basis. Under the previous other-than-temporary impairment model for available-for-sale investment securities, a security impairment was deemed other-than-temporary if we either intend to sell the security, or it was more likely than not that we would be required to sell the security before recovery or we did not expect to collect cash flows sufficient to recover the amortized cost basis of the security. During the years endedDecember 31, 2022 , 2021 and 2020, the unrealized losses recorded in the investment portfolio principally resulted from fluctuations in market interest rates and credit spreads. Each issuer was current on its scheduled interest and principal payments. We recorded impairments of$12.7 million in the year endedDecember 31, 2022 . We recorded other-than-temporary impairments of$0.4 million in the year endedDecember 31, 2020 . The impairments resulted from our intent to sell these securities subsequent to the reporting date. There were no impairments in the year endedDecember 31, 2021 .
For information on our material holdings in an unrealized loss position, see
"-Financial Condition-Investments."
Recently Issued Accounting Pronouncements
There are no recently issued accounting standards that are expected to have a material effect on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. See Note 2 of our consolidated financial statements.


UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS, INC. – 10-Q/A – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
AON PLC – 10-K – Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
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