Earnings Document
SCOTIABANK
Q3 2024 EARNINGS CONFERENCE CALL
DISCLAIMER
THIS TRANSCRIPT HAS BEEN FURNISHED FOR YOUR INFORMATION ONLY, IS CURRENT ONLY AS OF THE DATE OF THE CONFERENCE CALL, AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED BY MORE INFORMATION. EXCEPT AS REQUIRED BY LAW,
FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION
Forward-looking Statements From time to time, our public communications include oral or written forward-looking statements. Statements of this type are included in this document, and may be included in other filings with Canadian securities regulators or the
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CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Aris Bogdaneris
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS
Jefferies - Director of Research,
PRESENTATION
Good morning, and welcome to Scotiabank's 2024 third quarter results presentation. My name is
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Also present to take your questions are the following Scotiabank executives, Aris Bogdaneris from Canadian Banking;
With that, I will now tuthe call over to Scott.
Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. We are pleased to share our Q3 results, which demonstrated another quarter of progress and focused execution against our strategy. Through a challenging market environment, we achieved quarter-over-quarter EPS growth and continued positive operating leverage. Our results reflects the strength of our balance sheet, while demonstrating revenue acceleration led by performance in our Canadian banking business and ongoing positive momentum in Global Wealth.
Importantly, we are seeing the profitability benefits of our shifting focus from volume to value. Let me take a moment to recap a few key enterprise initiatives. Personal and commercial deposit growth will remain laser focused on developing primary client relationships. And while we expect this to be an ongoing and incremental journey, we are well underway with P&C deposit growth across our Canadian and international retail business is up 7% on a year-over-year basis. Since we started this journey 18 months ago, deposits in our Canadian Banking business are up
Capital discipline. We are deploying our incremental capital to our priority businesses in line with our medium-term objectives. We are starting to see the benefits of this repositioning with strong revenue and earnings growth in Canadian Banking and Wealth and a sharpened focus on returns in GBM and international banking. Today's results demonstrate our ability to generate earnings growth while focusing on disciplined capital deployment, priority client segments.
Cost and process efficiencies. Our efforts to increase our productivity will be an important contributor to meeting our medium term profitability metrics. All bank positive operating leverage, driven by cost discipline and Canadian International Banking will be an important driver of results going forward.
And finally, maintaining a strong balance sheet remains a high priority. Through the challenging rate environment over the past 18 months, we have strengthened our balance sheet with CET1 capital, ACL coverage and liquidity metrics all significantly improved levels.
Turning to our Q3 results, the bank reported adjusted earnings of
Credit costs are at high end of our previously communicated range as we see the impact of sustained higher rates on our retail portfolios. In our international markets, we expect to see credit conditions begin to stabilize in response to the monetary easing over the past few quarters. And we remain focused on delivering favorable risk-adjusted margins and returns. Despite higher credit costs it is important to note that risk adjusted margins have trended higher year to date in both Canadian and international banking.
Loans grew sequentially in the Canadian bank, in line with our strategic objective to deploy capital to our priority businesses and with our profitable primary relationships. Loan balance trended lower in International Banking and GBM. This lending discipline, coupled with early success and what will be a relentless ongoing effort to strengthen our deposit franchise is already showing clear progress.
Our wholesale funding requirement has been reduced over the past year by
We're making good progress towards our medium term, 1 million new primary client growth objectives in domestic retail and 500,000 primary client growth target in Tangerine. Year to date, we've added 143,000 net new primary clients in our Canadian retail and Tangerine franchises. Although balances in the Canadian residential mortgage portfolio are down slightly year over year. We have clearly reached an inflection point as we've seen the success of our multiproduct mortgage plus offerings, result in sequential residential mortgage growth.
Specifically 82% of mortgage originations in Q3 were mortgage plus offerings with new clients averaged an additional 3.1 products. Mortgage portfolio retention rates have also improved 190 basis points year over year to over 90%. Enhancing the profitability of our Canadian banking franchise will be a key driver of shareholder value creation. I was encouraged by the sequential 150 basis point improvement in Canadian Banking retuon equity this quarter.
Global wealth delivered a very strong contribution of
We continue to invest in advisor growth and technology within Scotia McLeod and have recently achieved a record assets managed in that channel. Our total wealth approach to providing full client solutions is driving growth in assets and relationship depth with new and existing clients. Financial plans in place, for example, which we know reflects stronger relationships and importantly better outcomes for our clients are up 29% year over year.
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Stronger collaboration and client cross-sell were highlighted asa clear priority for our domestic businesses at our Investor Day. We've seen good success in terms of the partnership between our businesses, driving a 21% year-to-date increase in closed referrals from the Canadian retail bank to our wealth business.
These are tangible measurable metrics that confirm our advisors are working more successfully with their clients and with partners across our organisation to bring more value to those clients. We expect to see similar significant benefits from the partnership between Global Wealth and our commercial banking business going forward.
In our Global Banking and Markets business, we reported solid earnings of
We were encouraged by strong growth in our fee businesses. Underwriting and advisory fees were up over 30% on both a year over year and year to date basis, benefiting from the continued build-out of our product capabilities in the US capital markets business. A critical component of our client primacy strategy is a more connected transaction banking capability across our primary markets to generate higher deposit growth.
Scotia Connect, our new cash management platform will elevate our capabilities in both
In our International Banking business, we delivered strong earnings up 6% 9% PTPP growth year over year, representing a solid 14% retuon equity despite elevated credit costs and more normalized GBM LatAm results compared to prior quarters. We continue to reposition capital deployed within our international footprint. Customer deposits grew 4% year over year, while loans were managed 2% lower. The resulting loan to deposit ratio in International Banking was down 9 points to 126% over the period.
We are pleased with the early results of our productivity efforts, expense control and capital repositioning this business. We are confident that the retail client segmentation initiatives underway and our plans to develop a more regional standardized operating model will position our international banking business well for improved efficiency and greater profitability going forward.
Our International Banking business is doing more with less, generated impressive earnings growth with lower capital deployed. Since the beginning of the year, risk-weighted assets deployed by the region are lower by
Turning to the current economic environment, interest rate increases over the past two years are now weighing on consumers and to a lesser extent on our commercial and corporate clients. In
We do expect policy rates in
The larger economies in our Latin American footprint are all now well into a period of monetary accommodation.
We are not anticipating recessionary conditions in any of our key operating geographies in the foreseeable future. In closing, I would like to provide a few additional thoughts on the recent announcement of our agreement to purchase an approximately 14.9% interest in
This investment is consistent with our commitment to reallocate capital from developing to developed markets with a focus on the North American corridor. Our investment in
This capital efficient transaction is expected to add greater than
The investment in Key is 65% more EPS-accretive than the buyback alternative and 20 basis points better from an ROE perspective. The capital impact of a full transaction will be approximately 50 basis points to 55 basis points. We believe that in the current environment, a 12.5% CET1 ratio represents an appropriate capital level at which to run the bank, 100 basis points above the regulatory minimum.
Therefore shareholders need not be concerned about Scotiabank holding excess capital as we continue to execute on our North American quarter of our strategy. Our investment in Key is financially attractive to our shareholders in the near term and add strategic value in terms of optionality on future US platform growth in the long term.
It is also important to note that our organic growth plans within our well-established US Global Banking and Markets business remain unchanged. We continue to enhance our US capital markets product offering and highly rated market segments. Our recent
In summary, I'm pleased with the bank's results this quarter in terms of delivering positive earnings progression while at the same time building balance sheet strength despite a challenging economic backdrop. We are making measurable progress against our strategic plan
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and our performance in 2024 sets a strong foundation for the resumption of organic earnings growth in 2025 in line with our Investor Day commitments.
With that, I will tuit over to Raj for a more detailed financial review of the quarter.
Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. All my comments that follow will be on an adjusted basis, which exclude the following items. The loss mostly relating to goodwill associated with the sale of CrediScotia, our consumer finance business in
Moving to Slide 6 for a review of the third quarter results. The bank reported quarterly earnings of
The all bank net interest margin expanded 4 basis points year over year. Margin was down 3 basis points quarter over quarter, driven mainly by lower margins in International Banking and Canadian banking, as well as higher levels of low yielding liquid assets. We expect the margin to modestly improving Q4 and expand beyond Q4 as the benefits of the rate cuts of fully realized.
Noninterest income was
Expenses grew 5% year over year, driven by higher personnel costs from inflationary adjustments and amortization and other technology related costs that support business growth. Quarter over quarter, expenses were up a modest 1%, driven by amortization and other technology related costs and professional fees. The productivity ratio is 56% this quarter in line with the prior quarter and year to date, operating leverage was a positive 0.9%.
Moving to slide 7, it shows the evolution of the CET1 capital ratio and risk-weighted assets during the quarter. The bank's CET1 ratio was 13.3%, an increase of 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 60 basis points year over year. Total risk-weighted assets was
Earnings contributed 16 basis points, the DRIP contributed 11 basis points and the revaluation of securities through the OCI contributed a further 7 basis points. This was offset partly by higher risk rated assets consuming 11 basis points and effects and other impacts of another 11 basis points. As a reminder, the Q3 dividend and the bank announced this morning will be the last dividend eligible for DRIP discount.
Turning now to the business line results, beginning on slide 8. Canadian Banking reported earnings of
Average loans and acceptances were up 1% quarter over quarter and roughly in line with the prior year. Business loans grew 7% year over year credit card balances grew 16%, while residential mortgage balances declined 2%.
We continue to see deposit growth and year-over-year deposits grew 8%, including an increase in personal deposits of 5%. The loan-to- deposit ratio improved to 120% compared to 129% in Q3 2023. Net interest income increased 11% year over year, primarily from solid deposit growth, margin expansion and the benefit from conversion of bankers acceptances due to the cessation of CDOR.
Net interest margin expanded 60 basis points year over year, driven by higher loan margins and favorable changes to business mix. Margin was down 4 basis points quarter over quarter as asset margin expansion was more than offset by lower deposit margins, reflecting the impact of rate cuts and mix shifts. Noninterest income was down 1% year over year, primarily due to bank -- lower banking fees impacted by the bankers acceptance as converting to loans partially offset by higher deposit and mutual fund fees and insurance revenue.
The PCL ratio was 39 basis points, down 1 basis point for (inaudible) quarter. Expenses increased 5% year over year, primarily due to higher technology, professional and personal costs. Quarter-over-quarter expenses grew a modest 1%, primarily due to the impact of two more days in the quarter, higher professional fees that were offset by good expense management controls.
Turning now to Global Wealth Management on slide 9. Earnings of
Revenues of
The Spot AUM increased 10% year-over-year to
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were up 11% year over year, driven by higher mutual fund fees, primarily from
Turning to slide 10, Global Banking and Markets generated earnings of
partly offset by higher FX. Quarter-over-quarter capital markets revenue was down 5%, from lower fixed income revenues partly offset by higher to equities and foreign exchange revenues.
Business banking revenues grew 8% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter due to higher corporate and investment banking, including higher underwriting and advisory fees. Loans and acceptances were down 5% quarter-over-quarter to
Net interest income increased 16% year over year, primarily due to higher corporate lending and deposit margins and higher loan fees. Non-interest income, however, was down 4% year over year due to lower trading-related revenue, including the impact from dividend received deduction partly offset by higher fee and commission revenues.
Expenses were up 5% year-over-year due mainly to higher personnel costs and technology costs to support business growth as well as the impact of foreign exchange. Quarter-over-quarter expenses were up a modest 2%, largely driven by higher personnel costs.
The US business generated strong earnings of
Moving to slide 11 for a review of International Banking. My comments that follow on an adjusted and constant dollar basis. The segment delivered earnings of
Net gross margin expanded 33 basis points year over year, NIM was down 5 basis points quarter over quarter, mainly due to lower inflation benefits in
Year over year loans were down 2%, primarily in
Expenses were up 4% year over year, driven mainly by higher salaries and employee benefits and technology costs. Quarter over quarter, expenses were flat as a business continues to see the benefits of restructuring, prudent expense management and the focus on regionalization that offset the challenges of operating in a high inflationary environment. Year to date, operating leverage was a very strong positive 4.6%.
Turning to slide 12, the Other segment reported an adjusted net loss attributable to equity holders of
I'll now tuthe call over to Phil to discuss risk.
Thank you, Raj. Good morning, everyone. All bank PCLs were 55 basis points, slightly above last quarter and are expected to remain around these levels for Q4. As we look to finish 2024, we continue to maintain our prudent approach and respond to the corresponding to the evolving macroeconomic landscape, but we are encouraged by the following trends. Stable delinquency rates in
Healthier balance sheet for our borrowing clients with both quarter over quarter and year over year deposits growing faster than loans. The resulting all bank PCLs approximately
Over the last four quarters, we have increased total allowances by approximately
Canadian Banking PCLs of
Canadian retail clients continue to show resilience and are managing their budgets prudently as discretionary spending hovered around 20% of total spending for the last six quarters. Expected rate relief will serve as a tailwind, product performance remained strong in the meantime. The number of tail risk clients, our mortgage portfolio continued to improve sequentially and represents less than 1% for total retail loan balances.
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The bank is set aside allowances to cover expected loss on these accounts. 90 day delinquency in our variable rate mortgage portfolio has increased by a modest two basis points quarter over quarter. Our fixed rate mortgage portfolio has maintained a stable 90 day delinquency rate of 15 basis points, and our variable rate mortgage performance gives us confidence in our books credit quality. We are comfortable with the amount of allowances for the fixed rate mortgage portfolio.
Turning to International Banking. International banking PCLs were
We remain confident in our clients resilience as Central Banks continue managing inflation across our footprint. The overall portfolio continues to perform as expected, and we continue to remain within the top end of our outlook for the full year 2024.
With that, I'll pass it back to John for Q&A.
Great, thank you Phil. Operator please open the line for questions.
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Operator
Good Morning. I guess maybe Raj for you. Just around the net interest margin outlook. So I heard your comments earlier if we get a series of rate cuts from the
Yeah. Good morning, Ebrahim. Happy to do that. Couple of points before I start on where this would go. So we disclosed in our analysts deck saying every 25 basis points is about
The second thing is we have seen two rate cuts in
Our current forecast is we should have two more rate cuts in
Even this quarter, if you look at the other segment, Ebrahim, the NII number, the loss is exactly the same as last quarter. So it's plateaued in our opinion and the benefits should start showing up starting next quarter. The Canadian banks division NIM will continue to show some level of decline because deposit margins will go down in a declining rate environment, as you know. But it will pick up as the asset repricing starts happening in line with the fixed rate mortgages, the schedulers as you know 2025 and 2026, but likely towards the latter part of 2025.
So that's the dynamic you will see in the business line, the international banking NIM, I suspect will be around the range that we operated this quarter. And as you know it moves around a little bit, multiple factors, different countries, inflation, many things that impactIB NIM. But I think it will be around the levels that you saw this quarter. So the summary would be, we should start seeing NII and NIM benefits modestly in Q4 and then see it accelerate through 2025.
Got it. And I guess maybe it's a good question maybe for you, Scott. The investment you made, I think got -- folks by surprise, just I think to me the fact that Scotia was back to playing offence and just was wondering if you could give us an update like the two core pieces in terms of the strategic sort of priorities one, give us a mark to market on where we are in improving the deposit franchise within
Sure. So there's three parts to that. So I'll start with the Key investment, I'll give it to Aris on the deposit franchise. And then Travis, maybe you can talk about the fee business in the US. So on the Key investment. We've gotten increased confidence over the last quarter in terms
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of the capital site, capital peak, in terms of what we need to run from a CET1 ratio with the
And so, we evaluated a whole bunch of redeployment options and capital, and the investment in Key was the most financially attractive, and best for our shareholders. And there's a page in the Investor Day, which highlights the differences relative to a share repurchase. So that's first and foremost. I think the second aspect of that, however, is it's a low cost, low risk way to get into the US market.
In a market that's very uncertain right now, both from a political, regulatory and economic perspective. And so, the ownership interest in Key, which has a five-year standstill, allows us to dip our toe in the water, leaabout the market, and actually get the benefits of NII, from developed market earnings over time, which has been part of the strategy in the North American corridor.
We are going to continue to focus, and Travis will come to this on growing our US GBM business, particularly through the fee side of that business. So with that, maybe, Travis, you can start on outlook for the US business, then we'll come to Aris on the deposits.
Sure. Hi Ebrahim, this is Travis. Thanks for the question. As Scott mentioned, we see great opportunities in the US, obviously one of the largest markets. We see increased connectivity between our Canadian and US clients, where we can capitalize on some of the fee opportunities that come across.
And you saw a week or so ago, we did announce an investment in a new team there. So as we start to build our expertise in our products, I think you'll see continued growth in the US, above some of other markets within GBM.
Aris, do you want to talk about deposit?
Aris Bogdaneris -
Sure. We grew, and Scott alluded to this, in the last year, we've added more than
I think what I particularly want to highlight is in the third quarter, we actually saw day-to-day banking balances grow, and that is a new development. But is, an offshoot of all the work we've done, whether it's booking our mortgage, originating our mortgages and getting the mortgage plus and driving deposit first strategies, and day-to-day banking strategies, when we lend.
We see it in the commercial banking business, small business, retail. And so you're starting to see day-to-day balances, despite the difficulty in the market and the consumer, we're seeing these balances grow. We added, I think, 60,000 net day-to-day banking clients in the third quarter. So the strategy is working. And it's a continuous focus of ours in all our channels, to build this deposit day-to-day banking muscle and then, lend on the back of it.
I think today 56% of our mortgage customers have a day-to-day banking count and conversely 46% of our term deposit holders have a day- to-day banking account. So this continues to be the focus, and will continue to be a focus going into next year. And we'll build more product muscle, we build more incentives in the branch network. We're also, of course, focusing, as I mentioned also during Investor Day, to get more mutual fund sales out of our branch network. And that also is showing, early signs of success.
The mutual fund sales coming out of our branches increased on a gross basis 44% year-on-year. So again, this balanced business model, we continue to push, and we're seeing success and will continue going into the following quarters.
Yeah. Thank you very much.
Operator
Hey, good morning. On the International segment, I think you were saying that the margin is going to be, kind of in and around this level for the foreseeable future. I don't know if you said anything similar about the loan loss ratio?
Gabe, it's Phil. I hope you're well. Good to hear you. We are -- as I said earlier, really encouraged by what we're seeing in IB, GILS flat, net write-offs flat. So that's an early positive sign. I'll give you guidance into Q4, and then happy to come back next quarter and sort of give more clear guidance into '25. But we're generally seeing things, as I look into next quarter, in line with this quarter.
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Okay. Now if I look further ahead and your loss right now, is kind of in line-ish with historical levels, there's been obviously some volatility there over the years, but kind of eyeballing it looks at a normalized level, if you will. Yet your consumer portfolio, not the mortgage, but the mostly unsecured consumers, is still nearly 20% below where it was in the pre-COVID days.
Just wondering why maybe beyond next quarter, if you factor in the rate cuts, you factor in the portfolio, the change to the portfolio mix. Why that that loss rate couldn't actually trend lower in the segment? Or is there some other factor I'm not considering?
No, I think listen, you've done a thorough analysis there. Francisco and I have been very focused on developing high quality in our portfolios. We've been very focused on primary customer acquisition. We're focusing on sort of our mass and top of mass segments. And so we're encouraged by what we're seeing, Gabe. And I think, there's more to come from me next quarter on outlook..
We're trying to stay extremely focused on what you've heard Scott say often this value versus volume. And just to give you a bit of background on that. So 70% of our new mortgage originations are coming with 3 or more products. And actually, in April, that number was approaching 80% across all channels.
Okay. I wasn't that thorough, actually, but thanks for that. Have a good one.
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Good morning. A couple questions. Maybe just continuing with international. I think if you look at the macro backdrop, particularly in
So what I'm trying to figure out is, as the demand environment improves for loans. But put that against sort of your strategy. How should we think about balance sheet growth for international in 2025? Is this somewhere where balance sheet will still be flattish, or can we expect some decent growth next year? Thank you.
Well, thank you for the question. This is Francisco here. A couple of thoughts. The first is 2025, going back to our commitment in Investor Day, was part of our transitional year. So you're going to see throughout 2025, as you've seen in '24, the combination of a refocusing of our targeted penetration effort on existing relationships, on particularly top of mass emerging affluent-and-affluent.
While an exercise of client de-selection drives a reprofiling of our balance sheet. So the net effect has been an overriding reduction of ROA, all delivered, all intended towards focusing on the right clients and the right returns. That exercise will continue throughout 2025, where we're going to be very deliberate on where we place balance sheet, both on retail, commercial and GBM, ensuring that we have a balanced relationship where lending is not the driver or the anchor, but rather the ability to transact on a day-to-day basis with our clients.
So you will see on the commercial and GBM side, a deliberate focus on cash management penetration. And on the retail front, it will be about a balanced relationship where payroll, investments, insurance and ultimately transactional credit drive the relationships. So you will see 2025 as a flattish balance sheet year just, because of the net effect of de-selection and refocusing of our portfolio.
Understood. That's a helpful answer. Thank you for that. Second question, and I guess it's for Phil. If I look at slide 34, it shows Canadian retail PCL trends. And what I see here is sort of, I think it's suggesting that the impaired, are actually starting to improve. Well, I think you're pretty conservative still on total provision. So does that suggest that at a point in time, when macroeconomic forecasts start to improve, there's potential for performing allowance releases? Would that be a correct assessment? Thank you.
That's a great question, Paul. And obviously, it's something we're spending a lot of time thinking about right now. I have to say the numbers came in as we had expected, quarter-over-quarter. But I continue to be impressed by how resilient the Canadian consumer has been through this period, the trade-offs that they continue to make. We see that coming through our VRM, our VRM portfolio for sure.
I think, I've been signaling auto stressing the auto portfolio for about a year now, and I was really encouraged this quarter to see, we're finally stable as it relates to net write-offs and in that portfolio. So have we turned a corner? I mean, one quarter is not a trend, but I'm really
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encouraged by what I'm seeing for this quarter. And even as I look into next quarter, I look -- I see stability in these portfolios moving forward.
Okay. That's it for me. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. (technical difficulty)
Yes. Thanks, Jill. I think the Corporate segment is something that earlier we have talked about somewhere around the
A couple of other comments on the Corporate segment. It's got multiple components. As you probably know by now. There is a lot of transfer pricing movements that happen between the Corporate segment and others. There's investment gains, sometimes there's mark-to- market gains that happen highly difficult to predict over there. And the investment gains have been fairly small in the last few quarters, because we've been holding onto it for NII income and that's kind of the change in philosophy on how we want to manage the portfolio going forward.
But mark-to-market gains are a little hard to predict, particularly in a volatile environment. So near-term, I think this would be about the right number, somewhere around the
Okay. Thank you for that.
Operator
Mario Mendonca,
Good morning. Phil, help me understand what proportion of your business, and government loan book would be on your watch list. And I'm curious as to what that is currently versus what it's been in the past?
Yeah. Thanks, Mario. It's a good question. We continue to focus on high investment-grade corporate lending. Business and government, we have very little on the watch list right now. There's maybe -- there's a few things that I'm watching mostly on the commercial side of the business, but I'm feeling really good about where we are on the corporate side. Obviously, we're a very disciplined organization from a credit perspective.
We are very conservative in terms of how we approach these segments. There's -- we're seeing downgrades, some downgrades higher than upgrades, obviously, during this period. But I've got no major file on my desk that I'm working out right now. We are looking at -- there's a couple of pockets of softness in
Agriculture would be one of them and transportation. And then, we're watching some pockets in some of our
It would be fair to say that it would be well below what, like far less than 5% - of your corporate -- of your business and government loan book. The watch list that is like well below 5%.
Yes.
Okay. Maybe sort of a follow-up question on the auto side. I like others have been waiting for unsecured Canadian consumer credit to accelerate materially at some point and drive, every bank's PCL is higher. And it just seems like that's not happening. And I guess what I want to ask you said that you've been surprised or encouraged by the resilience of the Canadian consumer.
Do you think that rates have dropped sufficiently, or maybe the outlook for rates has the -- outlook for rates that they will be lower over the next say, 12 months? Is that sufficient that we could be looking at a bit of a no landing scenario for the unsecured Canadian consumer, that we will never see that spike in losses. Is that a possibility now?
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